The China News Service, Beijing, July 1st (Wang Ruoxi, Wang Enbo) The Bank of China Research Institute released a report in Beijing on July 1st, pointing out that in the second quarter of 2025, the frequent adjustments of US trade policy have gradually shown their negative impact on the global economy. The resulting chain reaction will have a wide-ranging impact on US consumer demand and investment activities in other economies.

This '2025 Third Quarter Economic and Financial Outlook Report' states that under the impact of changes in the trade environment, global economic growth momentum weakened in the second quarter of this year, supply sides are becoming more stable, and demand sides continue to be weak.

Among the major economies, consumer growth is weak. In May, US retail sales fell by 0.9% month-on-month, showing a significant slowdown; the overall consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan in the second quarter dropped to the lowest level in more than a year, showing a clear trend of weakening consumer demand. The consumer confidence indices in the Eurozone and Japan are also at their lowest levels in the past two years.

Looking forward to the third quarter, the global economy will face more challenges under the impact of tariff shocks. The report predicts that the pace of expansion on the demand side may continue to slow down. The US consumer expansion has shown signs of stagnation, and the expectation for the expansion of corporate investment has weakened. High inflation continues to困扰 Japan's economy, which has relatively weak domestic demand growth momentum.

Although emerging economies may increase their expansion into domestic and non-US markets, the reconstruction of the global industrial and supply chains will help boost the real investment of some economies. However, overall, the research team of the Bank of China believes that the expansion of global demand will face more uncertain factors.

In terms of global inflation, the report states that the increase in tariffs and trade policy uncertainty will push up price levels in the third quarter. Changes in the situation in the Middle East may exacerbate inflationary pressures by affecting international energy prices and global shipping, but the low growth expectations in the consumer market may mitigate the upward pressure on prices from the demand side, and the inflation trends in different economies are facing divergence.

As the US depletes its inventory accumulated through the initial phase of 'snatching imports', the burden of tariffs will gradually be transmitted to the prices of US consumer goods and production costs. On the other hand, weak consumer demand will suppress the upward momentum of prices, and this trend has already begun to emerge in the US, with inflationary pressures in other countries and regions still expected to decline.