The oil price has risen for the first time this year in a 'three consecutive increases', and filling up a tank of fuel will cost an additional 9 yuan.
Beijing, July 1 (Reporter Zuo Yukuang) According to the National Development and Reform Commission, starting from 24:00 on July 1, the domestic成品 oil price will be adjusted, with a 235 yuan per ton increase for gasoline and a 225 yuan per ton increase for diesel.
According to the calculation of institutions, this adjustment increases the price of 92-octane gasoline by 0.18 yuan per liter, 95-octane gasoline by 0.19 yuan per liter, and 0 diesel by 0.19 yuan per liter. Calculating for a regular private car with a fuel tank capacity of 50L, after this adjustment, the car owners will spend an additional 9 yuan or so to fill up a tank of fuel.
This round is the 13th adjustment in 2025, also the 6th increase in 2025, and also achieved the first 'three consecutive increases' this year. After this adjustment, the pattern of 2025成品 oil price adjustment will show 'six increases, five decreases, and two delays'.
Ma Jiancai, an analyst from Jinlianchuang成品 oil, analyzed that affected by the trend of international oil prices, this round of change rate trend is first rising and then falling. Influenced by the continuous rise in crude oil prices in the early stage, the expected retail price increase has once climbed to 600 yuan/ton, followed by a sharp decline in international oil prices, the change rate has fallen from a high level, and the expected increase in retail price has continued to narrow.
Looking forward, Li Yan, an analyst from Longzhong Information, said that the second half of this round, the conflict between Iran and Iraq has eased, leading to a sharp drop in international oil prices. The accumulated decline will mainly reflect in the next cycle. Against the backdrop of easing geopolitical situations and the increase in production by OPEC+ (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners), international oil prices face bearish pressure. Overall, it is expected that the next round of成品 oil price adjustment will have a high probability of downward adjustment.
Ma Jiancai also believes that due to the insufficient rebound strength of international oil prices at the end of this pricing cycle, the overall price remains low. After entering the new pricing cycle, the change rate starts with a wide negative range. In the short term, the international crude oil market will fluctuate within a certain range, and the change rate may continue to run in a negative range, with a high probability of a downward adjustment in the new retail price, and the adjustment window period is 24:00 on July 15, 2025.
