Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, July 2 (Reporter Liu Liang) Under the impact of factors such as trade barriers, the global economy stumbled into the second half of this year, with many uncertainties still hovering overhead.

Cheng Shi, the Chief Economist of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (International), pointed out that at the beginning of this year, under the continuous policy support, the阶段性 repair of the global supply chain, and the momentum of the artificial intelligence wave, the global economy once continued to show a moderate recovery trend. However, the impact of trade protectionism has led the global economy to fall back into a highly uncertain and volatile state. Currently, the sensitivity of global economic growth to external shocks has significantly increased.

From the predictions of various international organizations and institutions, the situation is not optimistic.

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) downgraded its global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 3.1% to 2.9% in June. The organization pointed out that the uncertainty brought by the U.S. tariff policy to global trade will weaken the prospects of world economic growth. Based on the current trade situation, the organization further downgraded its global economic growth forecast for next year.

This prediction is basically consistent with the judgment of the World Bank. In June, the World Bank pointed out that global economic growth is slowing down due to trade barriers and uncertain global policy environment. According to its latest prediction, the global economic growth is expected to be 2.3% in 2025, down by 0.4 percentage points from the prediction in January this year.

Uncertainty also envelops the global investment trend. The latest report of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development shows that global foreign direct investment has declined for the second consecutive year in 2024. The report points out that since the beginning of this year, the United States has imposed a series of measures, such as additional 'equivalent tariffs' on its global trade partners, leading to an escalation of global trade tensions. If the situation continues, international investment may be further frustrated.

The severe situation tests the economic resilience of various countries. The prediction data released by the World Bank in June shows that compared to the predicted value in January this year, nearly 70% of economies have downgraded their economic growth rate. Specifically, the developed economies are expected to grow by 1.2% this year, down by 0.5 percentage points from the previous prediction; the emerging markets and developing economies are expected to grow by 3.8%, down by 0.3 percentage points from the previous prediction.

In the face of uncertainty, seeking more international cooperation and improving trade relations is regarded as an important engine to drive the global economy out of the gloom.

The Secretary-General of the OECD, Kolesnikov, pointed out that new trade barriers will lead to a slowdown in economic growth. He called for constructive dialogue to find solutions to alleviate the current trade tensions.

However, the current situation is not clear. The 90-day suspension period of the U.S. government's 'equivalent tariff' expires on July 9th. Analysis indicates that many countries find it difficult to reach agreements with the United States on some key issues. For example, on the issue of car tariffs, Japan, South Korea, and the United States are all unwilling to make concessions in negotiations. This also预示s that the road ahead for global economic growth is still facing challenges.

The World Bank points out that if trade relations improve and a lasting agreement is reached, there is still room for global economic growth to recover. According to its simulation analysis, if the current trade disputes can be resolved through agreements and the tariff levels are reduced to about half of the level by the end of May this year, the average global economic growth rate in 2025 and 2026 is expected to increase by about 0.2 percentage points.