Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, July 1 (Reporter Xia Bin) As the China's economic 'half-year report' is about to be released, foreign institutions are closely releasing economic outlooks for the second half of the year. 'Resilience' has become one of the key words in their evaluation of the Chinese economy, and many institutions have expressed optimism about the potential opportunities of Chinese assets.

The HSBC Global Investment Research team believes that the global economy is facing more downward pressure, and the global economic growth rate may slow down to 2.5% in 2025. However, the resilience of the Chinese economy remains, and the macro policies focusing on stability and long-term development continue to make effective efforts, which will provide effective support for the growth of domestic demand.

In the view of Xiong Yi, the Chief Economist of the China Division of Deutsche Bank, the output and retail performance of the Chinese service sector have shown resilience.

Taking the latest data as an example, under the drive of the policy of replacing old consumer goods with new ones, in May, the retail sales of household electrical appliances and audio-visual equipment, communication equipment, office supplies, and furniture categories in China's above-quota unit retail sales of consumer goods showed a year-on-year increase of between 25.6% and 53%, collectively boosting the growth of the total retail sales of consumer goods by 1.9 percentage points.

s consumer performance has exceeded expectations,” the Barlcay research team reported that in the first five months of this year, China

The continuous release of policy effectiveness has become an important source of China's economic resilience. Morgan Stanley believes that the current policy framework focuses on technological innovation and is steadily advancing economic rebalancing.

“Chinese policymakers have increased policy stimulus, expanded the fiscal budget for 2025, and relaxed monetary policy. These measures have driven the improvement of economic growth,” said Zhao Yaoting, the global market strategist for Invesco in the Asia-Pacific region, under the uncertain global macro environment, policies may further support Chinese household demand and private enterprises in the next few months.

Xiong Yi said that the implementation of China's loose monetary policy and the acceleration of fiscal expenditure are expected to continue to exert their effects. On the one hand, with the introduction of a package of financial policies by the People's Bank of China recently, it is expected that credit impulses in the coming months will boost domestic demand. On the other hand, there has been a significant acceleration in fiscal expenditure from March to April this year, showing the government's determination to promote domestic demand through fiscal proaction.

Zhao Yaoting believes that the macro environment of major developed and emerging markets, including Europe, Japan, and China, is improving.

During the two-week roadshow in Europe and Asia, Wang Zonghao, the head of China stock strategy research at UBS Investment Bank, observed that investors' interest in Chinese stocks has increased. He introduced that investors generally believe that Chinese stocks are relatively attractive and hope to see more sustainable, consumption-driven economic growth.

Foreign institutions also have a positive outlook on the appreciation trend of the renminbi against the US dollar. A research report by Deutsche Bank states that trade competitiveness is expected to support the strength of the renminbi in the long run, predicting that the exchange rate between the renminbi and the US dollar will reach 7.0 by the end of 2025, and further rise to 6.7 by the end of 2026.

The Morgan Stanley global foreign exchange team expects the renminbi to appreciate moderately against the US dollar, with the US dollar expected to continue its significant depreciation in the next two years. This is due to three main reasons: first, under the high uncertainty of policy, the 'safe haven' status of the US dollar has decreased; second, global investors' demand for hedging the exchange rate risk of US dollar assets has increased; third, the slowdown in the US economy is greater than that of other major economies.