United Conservative Party
Latest update: March 14, 2026
| Leader | Danielle Smith |
| Popular vote in 2023 | 52.6% |
| Current vote projection | 50.3% ± 5.0% |
| Current number of MLA's | 47 |
| Current seat projection | 56 [45-68] |
Vote projection | March 14, 2026
Seat projection | March 14, 2026
List of favourable electoral districts | United Conservative Party
| Electoral districts | Current party | Projection | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Nate Horner
|
Safe UCP | |
| 2. | Chantelle De Jonge
|
Safe UCP | |
| 3. | Todd Loewen
|
Safe UCP | |
| 4. | Jason Nixon
|
Safe UCP | |
| 5. | Joseph Schow
|
Safe UCP | |
| 6. | Ron Wiebe
|
Safe UCP | |
| 7. | Tara Sawyer
|
Safe UCP | |
| 8. | Scott Cyr
|
Safe UCP | |
| 9. | Garth Rowswell
|
Safe UCP | |
| 10. | Dan Williams
|
Safe UCP | |
| 11. | Andrew Boitchenko
|
Safe UCP | |
| 12. | Glenn Van Dijken
|
Safe UCP | |
| 13. | Brian Jean
|
Safe UCP | |
| 14. | Devin Dreeshen
|
Safe UCP | |
| 15. | Grant Hunter
|
Safe UCP | |
| 16. | Tany Yao
|
Safe UCP | |
| 17. | Angela Pitt
|
Safe UCP | |
| 18. | Martin Long
|
Safe UCP | |
| 19. | Matt Jones
|
Safe UCP | |
| 20. | Peter Guthrie [Elected as UCP]
|
Safe UCP | |
| 21. | Rick Wilson
|
Safe UCP | |
| 22. | Shane Getson
|
Safe UCP | |
| 23. | R.J. Sigurdson
|
Safe UCP | |
| 24. | Searle Turton
|
Safe UCP | |
| 25. | Chelsae Petrovic
|
Safe UCP | |
| 26. | Jackie Lovely
|
Safe UCP | |
| 27. | Jennifer Johnson*
*dropped by UCP but still on ballot |
Safe UCP | |
| 28. | Danielle Smith
|
Safe UCP | |
| 29. | Brandon Lunty
|
Safe UCP | |
| 30. | Rebecca Schulz
|
Safe UCP | |
| 31. | Mike Ellis
|
Safe UCP | |
| 32. | Eric Bouchard
|
Safe UCP | |
| 33. | Tanya Fir
|
Safe UCP | |
| 34. | Nolan Dyck
|
Safe UCP | |
| 35. | Richard William (Ric) Mciver
|
Safe UCP | |
| 36. | Nate Glubish
|
Likely UCP | |
| 37. | Myles Mcdougall
|
Likely UCP | |
| 38. | Justin Wright
|
Likely UCP | |
| 39. | Scott Sinclair [Elected as UCP]
|
Likely UCP | |
| 40. | Dale Nally
|
Likely UCP | |
| 41. | Peter Singh
|
Likely UCP | |
| 42. | Jackie Armstrong-Homeniuk
|
Likely UCP | |
| 43. | Mickey Amery
|
Likely UCP | |
| 44. | Demetrios Nicolaides
|
Likely UCP | |
| 45. | Rajan Sawhney
|
Likely UCP | |
| 46. | Muhammad Yaseen
|
Leaning UCP | |
| 47. | Adriana Lagrange
|
Leaning UCP | |
| 48. | Nagwan Al-Guneid
|
Leaning UCP gain | |
| 49. | Diana Batten
|
Leaning UCP gain | |
| 50. | Court Ellingson
|
Leaning UCP gain | |
| 51. | Julia Hayter
|
Leaning UCP gain | |
| 52. | Jason Stephan
|
Leaning UCP | |
| 53. | Lizette Tejada
|
Leaning UCP gain | |
| 54. | Samir Kayande
|
Toss up UCP/NDP | |
| 55. | Amanda Chapman
|
Toss up UCP/NDP | |
| 56. | Kyle Kasawski
|
Toss up UCP/NDP | |
| 57. | Gurinder Brar
|
Toss up UCP/NDP | |
| 58. | Sharif Haji
|
Toss up UCP/NDP | |
| 59. | Nathan Ip
|
Toss up UCP/NDP | |
| 60. | Nicole Goehring
|
Toss up UCP/NDP | |
| 61. | Nathan Neudorf
|
Leaning NDP gain | |
| 62. | Irfan Sabir
|
Leaning NDP | |
| 63. | Peggy Wright
|
Leaning NDP | |
| 64. | Brooks Arcand-Paul
|
Leaning NDP | |
| 65. | Janet Eremenko
|
Leaning NDP | |
| 66. | Parmeet Singh Boparai
|
Leaning NDP | |
| 67. | Rhiannon Hoyle
|
Leaning NDP | |
| 68. | Marie Renaud
|
Likely NDP | |
| 69. | Luanne Metz
|
Likely NDP | |
| 70. | Heather Sweet
|
Likely NDP | |
| 71. | Lorne Dach
|
Likely NDP | |
| 72. | David Eggen
|
Likely NDP | |
| 73. | Christina Gray
|
Likely NDP | |
| 74. | Sarah Elmeligi
|
Likely NDP | |
| 75. | Gurtej Singh Brar
|
Likely NDP | |
| 76. | Rakhi Pancholi
|
Likely NDP | |
| 77. | Jasvir Deol
|
Likely NDP | |
| 78. | Shannon Phillips
|
Likely NDP | |
| 79. | Joe Ceci
|
Safe NDP | |
| 80. | Jodi Calahoo Stonehouse
|
Safe NDP | |
| 81. | Kathleen Ganley
|
Safe NDP |