Do you think you’re right about everything?
Of course, my reader is too smart to fall for that. Nobody’s right about everything and to say otherwise is hubris.
One ought to be open-minded and willing to consider opposing points of view.
But how open-minded is open-minded enough?
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A little more persistence, a little more effort, and what seemed hopeless failure may turn to glorious success.
Elbert Hubbard
Want of forbearance in small matters confounds great plans.
Confucius
I recently discovered that I can see all my bank transactions back twenty years.
Taking a trip down memory lane, I noticed that even when I wasn’t making much money I was still managing to save around USD 600 a month.
These days I rub shoulders with many older gents, all trying to get by in their own way.
Some saved and invested all their lives, and are sitting pretty.
Some didn’t but get a pension/social security so they’re okay anyway.
And some didn’t and get nothing, and are in serious trouble.
Read MoreAboriginal group claims legalising pepper spray will deepen racial divide
The NT government this week announced a 12-month trial allowing members of the public to carry low-percentage Oleoresin Capsicum (OC) spray for self-defence as part of a broader effort to stop rampant aboriginal crime…
But peak indigenous healthcare organisation the Aboriginal Medical Services Alliance Northern Territory said on Wednesday it “condemned” the trial and claimed allowing the use of pepper spray for self-defence would “place more lives at risk”.
“Weaponising people and allowing wider access to a harmful substance like OC spray won’t fix violence – it will fuel it. This decision will cause harm, deepen community distrust, and exacerbate already dangerous racial divisions,” CEO Dr John Paterson said.
“This is another example of the systemic criminalisation of Aboriginal people. It puts more vulnerable people in harm’s way, instead of addressing the root causes of violence and disadvantage…”
UK creating ‘murder prediction’ tool to identify people most likely to kill
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Some readers take umbrage at my criticism of American leaders, so please take heart at how much worse ours are in Australia.
Being an island nation dependent on international trade, Australia’s defence mainly relies on patrolling the air-sea gap and trade routes to major partners in North Asia:
Read MoreThe longitudinal study Excess Mortality from Suicide and other External Causes of Death Among Women with Cosmetic Breast Implants (2007), reported that women who sought breast implants are almost 3.0 times as likely to commit suicide as are women who have not sought breast implants. Compared to the standard suicide-rate for women of the general populace, the suicide-rate for women with augmented breasts remained alike until 10-years post-implantation, yet it increased to 4.5 times greater at the 11-year mark, and so remained until the 19-year mark, when it increased to 6.0 times greater at 20-years post-implantation. Moreover, additional to the suicide risk, women with breast implants also faced a trebled death risk from alcoholism and drugs abuse (prescription and recreational).[38][39] Although seven studies have statistically connected a woman’s undergoing a breast augmentation procedure to a greater suicide rate, the research indicates that augmentation[40][41] surgery does not increase the suicide rate; and that, in the first instance, it is the psychopathologically inclined woman who is likelier to undergo breast augmentation.[42][43][44][45][46][47]
Author Richard Brittain attacked reviewer with bottle
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The kerfuffle about the statistics lady sacking reminds me: Trump is not very smart. He has a genius in some areas – his tweets are works of art – but overall he’s unread, incurious, and unwilling to consider advice. Details wash off him like water from a duck’s back.
To take the stats lady: on one hand Trump wants lower interest rates. On the other, he gets mad at bad employment figures that add pressure for a rate cut.
This is not an argument about what interest rates should be or whether jobs stats are biased.
Rather, I’m pointing out that many Trump policies are dumb in that he blithely attempts to achieve outcomes that are at cross-purposes to each other.
If Trump were capable of grasping complexity and tradeoffs – if he were smart – how might his policies be different, even if they still had the same MAGA goals?
The trade deficit
Read MoreIf It’s Worth Your Time To Lie, It’s Worth My Time To Correct It
…I think “okay, but everyone knows that something vaguely similar is true” is an especially dangerous case of this.
Maybe I don’t agree that the similar thing is true.
Maybe the similar thing is true, but it’s got some big problem (eg is impossible in practice, costs too much, would have too many side effects) that the original catchy example doesn’t.
Maybe the similar thing isn’t really similar along the axis that matters most.
If, instead of saying the true similar thing, you say a different false thing, then that denies me the opportunity to examine the true similar thing in detail, ask you questions about it, or challenge it directly. Which was plausibly your point all along, because there must have been some reason it was worth your time to lie.
12 Angry Men: A Subversive Masterpiece
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When I first moved to Taiwan, I bought a millionth-hand 125cc scooter from an American for $50.
The small amount of paint left on it was purple. It pulled to the right. Otherwise, it was okay.
He threw in the helmet for free.
This was a ‘ghost bike’ – a bike that was unregisterable because it had passed through too many hands and previous owners were uncontactable. It actually came with papers from a guy who’d once owned it maybe 15 years ago, and who knows if he was still in the country or even alive.
As Asian countries develop, law gradually spreads from the city centres to the mountains. At that time, you could ride ghost bikes out in the sticks without a problem but you’d run into police checkpoints in the cities.
I rode it into the city.
I think I saw a terrible film there with a terrible girl, but anyway I’d just started driving home when some other riders pointed out my taillight was dead.
There was nothing for it but to keep going.
Then I realized: as it was Saturday night, it was very likely that I’d run into a checkpoint. That would be bad for me because I was breaking… I counted… four laws at once.
Broken taillight. No registration. No license. No insurance.
Read MoreTrump’s Hooters-loving Malaysia ambassador pick worries Asean diplomats
Adam’s brash persona marks a stark departure from previous ambassadors to Muslim-majority Malaysia, typically seasoned career diplomats suited to the country’s cautious, pragmatic and subtle style of foreign policy, which favours quiet diplomacy over headline-grabbing rhetoric….
Adams, however, has political experience, having been elected as Australia’s youngest ever deputy mayor at the age of 21 in 2005. Overseeing the Sydney suburb of Ashfield, Adams made headlines for trying to ban pigeons to prevent bird flu and for racking up phone and taxi charges for personal use.
His Liberal [that’s conservative in Oz] Party threatened to suspend him for embarrassing the party, but Adams resigned before disciplinary action could be taken against him and emigrated to the US in 2012.
Trump says US will charge 19% tariff on goods from Philippines
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I’ve been thinking for some time that Trump reminds me of someone, and no, not the failed artist.
But who?
The other day, it came to me:
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[Note: I found this in my drafts, written around 2021.]
Today I saw a well-known rationalist suggest that with Covid rapidly mutating, we should permanently seal all international borders to all travelers and only allow goods to pass through.
No one suggested anything like this during the similar 1957-58 Asian Flu.
What’s going on?
In the 2020s, we are trying to cheat death.
We don’t think we should have to die and we don’t think anyone else should have to die. It’s not fair! It’s mean. Someone ought to do something about it.
In the 50s, people didn’t think like this. They’d just come through WWI, the Spanish Flu, the Great Depression and WWII. Smallpox and other horrors were still common, the Korean War was raging and most cars did not come with seatbelts. People then were pretty cool with death and were much more concerned about Communism and where to get the best sundae.
What changed?
Read MoreThis is the first year I’ve felt old.
There’s a confluence of factors.
I moved back to a place I’ve lived in before, in my youth.
If you just live your ordinary life in the same place, time can whizz by without you noticing it. This happens even more if you move from place to place because you don’t see how much the world around you is changing.
Moving back to an old place after many years, however, makes your age hit you in the face.
The location has changed less than I have. The thrill of arriving in a new place is gone. The thirst for adventure, to explore every nook and cranny, discover something cool.
I have to fight inertia to get myself out of the house even for a moderate jaunt.
The same cultural quirks that once struck me as mind-blowing, alternate perspectives on the world now bug me more than they used to. The same old shit keeps on happening, the same old heads banging on the same old walls. It’s tiresome.
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You may have heard recent news about Israel and the United States bombing Iran, supposedly to prevent it from developing nuclear weapons.
I don’t want to get lost in the weeds on this. I just have one thing I want to clarify:
The reason Iran has been ‘weeks away from developing nuclear weapons’ for decades is because it has a strategic position of latent nuclear capability.
Being on the ‘nuclear threshold’ allows a nation to deter attack without going through all the effort, expense and diplomatic strife of actually developing nuclear weapons and delivery capabilities.
The threat is, ‘If you invade us you’d better be quick, because in a few weeks we might be hurling something really nasty at you.’
Some nations can even do it while sticking to the rules of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, if they are members. Iran is a signatory but appears to have enriched uranium beyond what the treaty allows.
Latent nuclear capability can also be used as a bargaining chip. That is, they can offer to trade away some of their nuclear technology in return for concessions on sanctions and so on. Iran did this back in the Obama years.
At the moment, being a latent nuclear power doesn’t seem to be working out too well for Iran. It got bombed and humiliated.
On the other hand, it avoided invasion all through the War on Terror years, and has also thwarted attempts at colour revolution regime change. So, not a total failure perhaps.
Still, nations with actual nukes that thumbed their noses totally at the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (Israel, North Korea, India, Pakistan) have done much better. America leaves them alone.
Read MoreImagine if the Church of Scientology had infiltrated the government. Members got positions in the administrative state and the political system. They then directed money to organizations run by fellow cult members. Those organizations then used some of the money to lobby for more money from the system in the form of government contracts, but also by influence peddling to private actors. They would then organize these resources to control public policy.
That is the nature of the “deep state.” The people in it do not think of themselves as part of the deep state. From their perspective, they are just normal people working in the media, government, politics, and policy. Everyone they know is a normal person working in one of these areas. This is how they know they are normal and the people talking about the deep state are not normal. All the normal people they know agree with them that the deep state is a conspiracy theory.
Vale ZMan, who RamZPaul and John Derbyshire announced died of natural causes this week.
Arthur — the NYC carriage horse who famously crashed into two cars — found happy ending
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Back when the mighty northern glaciers were freshly melted, I had a casual job in retail. There were three main parts to my job – register, stocking shelves and moving boxes out the back. This list is in order from my least to most favourite.
I actually enjoyed moving boxes and getting sweaty. On register I was socially awkward, shy of my savage pimples under the glaring fluorescent tube lights, and I made mistakes.
Adding to this pressure was the possibility of receiving a Mystery Shopper. If you haven’t done retail, this is a person paid by the company to act like a shopper in order to ensure they are offered a basket if they are holding two or more items, are addressed by name if they use a credit card, that change is counted back, and of course that they get a big shit-eating grin from the poor spotty register monkey.
I never ended up getting a review from a mystery shopper but it was yet another source of terror for a timid young man.
Nevertheless, if you’ve ever had trouble at a shop or restaurant, you can see how mystery shoppers can be a good thing if properly deployed.
Today’s idea is a DOGE-like concept for mystery shoppers to analyze government services.
Town Hall mystery shopper
Read MoreSelf-driving cars are pretty much ready to be rolled out everywhere.
The main thing lagging isn’t the cars, which are good enough.
Rather, we need to change the roads to fit the cars.
This might sound nuts, but we’ve done it before.
Prior to the motorcar, roads were rough as. Mostly they were mud or compacted earth. When it rained they got muddy and when it didn’t they got dusty. Cobblestones in cities improved this a bit but were rattly.
Above all, roads were variable. There was no standard ‘road’.
People laughed their heads off at these newfangled cars trying to drive on these roads, getting stuck in ridges or bogged in mud that horses could gallop over with ease. Even if the motorcar could maintain forward momentum, horse-drawn carriages would often overtake them.
No doubt very clever personages at posh Edwardian parties proclaimed motorcars a flash in the pan.
Today, a road in Argentina looks a lot like a road in Mongolia. We have set designs, materials and street signs for city streets and main roads, highways and freeways.
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It occurred to me that I need to edit the chapter on setting financial goals in my book.
Everyone’s financial goal is to have as much money as possible.
Aside from savings put aside for specific anticipated expenses, everyone just wants lots of money.
You can’t have too much money. An unexpected need might come up, or you can just give it away.
You’ll decide how much you want to work, of course, but there’s no rational reason why you’d invest in something that has a lower return than an alternative (risk-adjusted, of course).
Every so often, a paper comes out showing that actually, you should invest in 100% stocks, 0% bonds throughout your life, even into retirement, because this leads to the optimal likely outcome. It is said to be less likely to eventuate in a wipe-out.
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Foreigners have certain sayings about Japan that can help you to understand deep parts of the cultural iceberg that are normally hidden.
1. The Japanese would rather lose their way than win any other way.
Tradition and what the boss said to do is valued, at times, more highly than life itself.
This was apparent in the Pacific War.
In Papua New Guinea, the outnumbered, poorly trained and equipped Australians were nearly blown away by the the approaching juggernaut. However, when they adjusted their tactics to prepare for following assaults, they were confused to find that the Japanese forces kept on attacking in exactly the same way again and again and again, thus nullifying their otherwise formidable power and halting their advance.
The Japanese were unable to change right in the middle of things.
In another incident, the Emperor once asked his government why the Americans had been able to fortify captured Pacific islands so quickly compared to the Japanese who had held them for years. The answer was that the Americans immediately shipped machinery to each island for construction. This seemed an alien and scientific way of fighting to the banzai-charge preferring Japanese leadership.
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To assess governance in developed liberal democracies, you need to ask ‘Compared to what?’
Third World democracies and semi-democracies are comically governed, with politicians rarely stopping to even think about what might benefit the people. They don’t even get up to the point of misunderstanding an outdated economic concept or making a diplomatic blunder based on a cultural difference. They’re just straight-out pinching as much money as they can in order to fund their patronage networks.
In totalitarian states it’s even worse. At least in corrupt countries you can bribe your way around the worst of it. If dictators really believe their own nonsense then life becomes another order of miserable.
Comparing our governments to those of Third World and totalitarian states, we can see that we are ruled by Mediocracy.
Our leaders are mediocre.
They aren’t as evil as Fat Kim or Isaias Afwerki. The death rate is lower and whole populations aren’t trying to flee our countries.
Our politicians aren’t as useless, corrupt and stupid as, say, leaders in Indonesia or Nigeria – the developing world is on another level in this regards. Let’s consider each adjective in turn:
Read MoreI always had an image of Germans as hard-working, humourless bot-people, turning only from their toil on rare days off to listen to weird bands or attend pro-refugee rallies.
I now work with a lot of Germans and I’ve been surprised at how much I got them wrong.
Germans are one of the few ethnic groups Australians don’t already know well. There are many people with German ancestry in Australia, but it goes too far back to make much difference aside from celebrating Christmas a day early, making all the other kids jealous as they sleep that extra night waiting for those pressies.
To be fair, some of the stereotypes I saw busted may be recent innovations. Others might be regional – I deal mostly with the south, especially Bavaria. I’m already starting to see Berliners as other Germans do…
First, Germans don’t work long hours. They have some of the chillest labour standards in the world. By law, they are not allowed to work over ten hours per day. Companies will be in serious trouble if they get caught keeping people on longer than that, even if they pay them overtime rates.
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