strategy | SovietMen

Thus Spake Carney

Posted on February 25 by Nikolai Vladivostok

A few things strike me:

He’s shitting himself
He’s right
American criticisms of Canada and other allies are also largely right
The fawning over this speech is mostly TDS
It is good strategy, but it would have been better strategy not to say it out loud

What’s happening in the western alliance today is nothing new, historically. We’re seeing a hegemon become unreliable and even threatening, the latter only in a theatrical way this time around.

As it’s a known pattern, there’s a known response: quietly hedge.

In the present case, that means finding alternative trade partners, building parallel alliances and diversifying supply chains. This reduces dependence on the wavering hegemon and provides room to move in an emergency.

The idea isn’t for middle powers to gang up on the hegemon, as some have misconstrued. It’s to ensure there are worse but hopefully sufficient options available if, in the present case, the US imposes a trade war or fails to assist in a kinetic war.

The things Carney says are rational and time-proven countermoves for middle powers in this sort of situation.

However, he misses a vital element of the strategy: you’re supposed to do it quietly!

The Greenlander Question

Posted on January 21 by Nikolai Vladivostok

One must approach retail politics with caution, because if you stare too long into the stupidity, the stupidity stares back into you.

Today, I dare to analyze the Greenland kerfuffle only because interesting facts emerge that have broader relevance.

Like a fool, I first tried to interpret the Chaotic Neutral Orange Man’s motivations from a logical standpoint:

He wants to trick Europeans into contributing more to their own defence! Look, they’re sending troops to Greenland already! 4D chess!

But then he threatens to tariff them for doing that.

Do things the easy way

Posted on October 2 by Nikolai Vladivostok

I know a guy who has reached the age of 61 and recently married a woman, so he’s starting to think about achieving financial stability.

Up to now he just has some cash saved in bank accounts, no investments as such, because something something Aristotle.

With a BA in Philosophy and many years experience as a fly-by-night English teacher in various Asian countries, the path forward seemed obvious to him:

Spend all his savings on getting a Masters degree in Philosophy from an Indian university, then a Phd, and become a philosophy professor in an Asian university somewhere.

Imagine his shock when his brilliant plan started to run into trouble.

The easiest path would have been to save and invest 15% of his income throughout his life. But Aristotle.

Having not done that, the second easiest path would be to either keep on with the fly-by-night English teaching wherever it is most lucrative, or to do an online Masters in Education which is accepted by international schools that pay better. In other words, become fly-by-day.

Anyway, I see a lot of this: doing things the hard way. I’ve done a lot of this myself.

I had a decent job offer in Saigon… so off I flounced to my alternative job offer in the most backward part of Africa I could find.

When I was a young man… oh, it hurts to think about it. Any hard way of doing something I could find, I stubbornly went for it, thinking it was true to my principles but actually I’d have had trouble enunciating what those principles were.

If there’s an easy way and a hard way, do it the easy way. Life is hard enough as it is.

Investing

For want of little persistence

Posted on August 21 by Nikolai Vladivostok

A little more persistence, a little more effort, and what seemed hopeless failure may turn to glorious success.
Elbert Hubbard

Want of forbearance in small matters confounds great plans.
Confucius

I recently discovered that I can see all my bank transactions back twenty years.

Taking a trip down memory lane, I noticed that even when I wasn’t making much money I was still managing to save around USD 600 a month.

These days I rub shoulders with many older gents, all trying to get by in their own way.

Some saved and invested all their lives, and are sitting pretty.

Some didn’t but get a pension/social security so they’re okay anyway.

And some didn’t and get nothing, and are in serious trouble.

Nukes, latent nukes and no nukes

Posted on July 2 by Nikolai Vladivostok

You may have heard recent news about Israel and the United States bombing Iran, supposedly to prevent it from developing nuclear weapons.

I don’t want to get lost in the weeds on this. I just have one thing I want to clarify:

The reason Iran has been ‘weeks away from developing nuclear weapons’ for decades is because it has a strategic position of latent nuclear capability.

Being on the ‘nuclear threshold’ allows a nation to deter attack without going through all the effort, expense and diplomatic strife of actually developing nuclear weapons and delivery capabilities.

The threat is, ‘If you invade us you’d better be quick, because in a few weeks we might be hurling something really nasty at you.’

Some nations can even do it while sticking to the rules of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, if they are members. Iran is a signatory but appears to have enriched uranium beyond what the treaty allows.

Latent nuclear capability can also be used as a bargaining chip. That is, they can offer to trade away some of their nuclear technology in return for concessions on sanctions and so on. Iran did this back in the Obama years.

At the moment, being a latent nuclear power doesn’t seem to be working out too well for Iran. It got bombed and humiliated.

On the other hand, it avoided invasion all through the War on Terror years, and has also thwarted attempts at colour revolution regime change. So, not a total failure perhaps.

Still, nations with actual nukes that thumbed their noses totally at the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (Israel, North Korea, India, Pakistan) have done much better. America leaves them alone.

You say you want a revolution…

Posted on August 5, 2024 by Nikolai Vladivostok

I’ve seen a fair bit of sympathy around these parts for the current protests/riots in England.

The incendiary incident appears to have been the son of refugees who fled the Rwandan machete massacre going on a stabbing spree. This was not part of the Pakistani grooming gang phenomenon but clearly ethnic tension has been building for a long time.

Brexit, Boris Johnson and the Conservative Party are a big part of this frustration. Voters assumed that each of these would moderate uncontrolled immigration, but instead the situation has become even more chaotic over the last decade.

As a great man once said, “Riots are the voice of the voiceless.” With no effective vote and nothing else to do, is it any wonder soccer appreciators eventually start hitting each other with friendly fire bricks?

Cool heads can seem like an impediment to seemingly effective action by hotheads at a time like this. However, one should remember that cool heads are always right, even if they exert friction on the momentum.

A triumph of messaging

Posted on October 26, 2022 by Nikolai Vladivostok

People say our rulers can’t pull off clever policies anymore, but when it comes to wordcelry they still have a few tricks up their sleeves.

Take the Nordstream attack, for example. The thing itself was probably not wise but the messaging surrounding the event was perfect.

Those who committed the act had to carry off something of a double dog whistle. First, they had to convince the plebs that it was the evil Ruskies who did the deed. Second, they had to signal to more important people that they themselves were, in fact, responsible.

The second goal was vital because the sabotage of the pipeline was not only intended to remove Russia’s bargaining power with Germany. It was also a threat: Look what we can do!

It is essential to the GAE that world leaders understand the truth about the attack as it showcases American technical capability and, even more so, their derring-do. A country strategizing against American interests will now be less tempted to assumed ‘they wouldn’t dare . . .’ (fill the ellipsis with whatever you like). America might dare. They’re a bit nuts at the moment.

China in particular will be weighing it up.

So how did they get out two messages simultaneously, for two different audiences?

Crypto-anarchism rethunk

Posted on August 9, 2019 by Nikolai Vladivostok

Back when the internet was young, some fellows got a little carried away and thought that it might be used in some Utopian way to make the world a better place. Most just thought it would one day be possible to download Miss Venezuela’s swimsuit picture in mere minutes, but others, like a white-haired Australian wanker named Julian Assange, were even more Read More

Put the Giant Back to Bed

Posted on August 2, 2017 by Nikolai Vladivostok

Just after 9/11, I went to a birthday party where everyone was understandably muted. We young men discussed what might happen next and considered the possibility of being drafted to whatever war was about to erupt.

War, we all agreed, was a certainty. “They’ve woken the giant,” concluded one chap, shaking his head. “They’ve woken the giant.” Read More