Posts tagged ‘development’

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Wednesday, January 31, 2024

Ma Hui: Neighborhood Transformation, Solidarity with Cuba

(1) “Unity starts from the Neighborhoods”

Main Link: Radio Rebelde, Cuba, January 30, 2024

Radio Rebelde coverage, January 30, 2024
Ma Hui (2nd left), Hernández (r)

China y Cuba: Unidos desde el barrio
30 de enero de 2024
Carlos Manuel Serpa
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Este martes la sede nacional de los Comités de Defensa de la Revolución (CDR) acogió el encuentro entre Gerardo Hernández Nordelo máximo dirigente de la organización y el Embajador de la República Popular China en Cuba el Sr. Ma Hui. This Tuesday, the National Committees for the Defense of the Revolution hosted the meeting between Gerardo Hernández Nordelo, main head of the organization, and the Ambassador of the People’s Republic of China in Cuba, Senor Ma Hui.
Ambos firmaron un convenio de colaboración que inicia un proyecto de trabajo en comunidades cubanas. Valoraron además las relaciones bilaterales y están dispuestos a seguir fortaleciendo las mismas. They both signed a compact of cooperation that starts a work project in Cuban communities. They also assessed the bilateral relations and were willing to further strengthen those.
Fotos Maya Cuba Photos: Maya Cuba
El Embajador Chino expresó su rotundo rechazo al Bloqueo Económico Comercial y Financiero de los Estados Unidos contra Cuba y ratificó además que la solidaridad es una de las mejores soluciones para evadir el mismo y que Cuba siempre contará con China. The Chinese ambassador expressed his categorical rejection of the United States’ Economic, Trade and Financial Blockade and also confirmed that solidarity with Cuba is one of the best solutions to evade [that blockade], and that Cuba will always rely on China.
Hernández Nordelo expresó que la Isla y China tienen una larga historia amistosa y agradeció la apoyo de esta nación. Manifestó además que la organización está dispuesta a estrechar los vínculos con los homólogos chinos, fomentar los intercambios sobre la construcción y gobernanza social a fin de beneficiar a los pueblos de ambos países. Hernández Nordelo expressed that the Island [of Cuba] and China had a great historic friendship, and thanked for the support of this nation. He also said that the organization [National Committees for the Defense of the Revolution] was willing to intensify ties with the Chinese counterparts, promote the exchanges on social construction and government so as to benefit the peoples of both countries.
Al encuentro asistieron además Julia Iliana Durruthy Molina Vicecoordinadora Nacional de los CDR, Aranelis Barbán Secretaria Ideológica Nacional y Helen Camacho Solis Funcionaria de Relaciones Internacionales. CDR [Committees for the Defense of the Rev] Julia Iliana Durruthy Molina, National Ideological Secretary Aranelis Barbán, and Officer of International Relations Helen Camacho Solis were present at the meeting.

–

(2) “Practical and Beneficial Matters”

Main Link: Chinese Embassy to Cuba / Foreign Ministry, January 31, 2024

驻古巴大使马辉出席中国和平发展基金会资助古巴社区改造项目协议签字仪式
来源：（驻古巴大使馆） 2024-01-31 08:04		 Ambassador to Cuba, Ma Hui, attended a signing ceremony with the China Foundation for Peace and Development, to fund Cuban community transformation projects.
2024年1月30日，驻古巴大使马辉同古巴保卫革命委员会全国总协调员埃尔南德斯共同签署中国和平发展基金会资助古巴哈瓦那一社区改造项目协议。 On January 30, 2024, at Havana, Cuba, Ambassador to Cuba Ma Hui and Cuban General Coordinator of the Committees for the Defense of the Revolution Hernandez signed an agreement for community transformation projects, funded by the China Foundation for Peace and Development.
马辉大使表示，中国和平发展基金会此举旨在帮助古巴社区更新改造，增进中古两国人民合作与友谊。驻古巴使馆愿同古保革会一道，把实事办好，造福古基层民众。 Ma Hui said that this step by the China Foundation for Peace and Development is meant to help Cuban communities’ upgrading and transformation and to enhance cooperation and friendship between the Chinese and Cuban people. The embassy in Cuba wanted to work with the Committees for the Defense of the Revolution to manage practical matters well and to benefit the masses at the grassroots in Cuba.
埃尔南德斯表示这一援助体现了中古深厚兄弟情谊，是中国人民支持古巴社区建设的重要行动，古方表示感谢。 Hernandez said that this help embodies the deep brotherhood and friendship between the Chinese and Cuban people, and Cuba expressed gratitude for the Chinese people’s support for this important step in Cuban community construction.

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Saturday, January 13, 2024

Taiwan: the Voters’ Wisdom

Tsai Ing-wen, Taiwan’s incumbent President, governed with two parliaments in which her party had a comfortable majority (62 of 114 seats from 2016 to 2020 and 61 of 114 seats from 2020 to 2024). Vice President Lai Ching-te who is going to succeed her as President in May, will probably have to settle for 51 or 52 of 113 seats.

Lai Ching-te, bodyguards and supporters
Where’s my new office?

That may look like bad news, but if you presume that the results express a collective intention, it is this: the voters prefer Lai over Hou Yu-ih (KMT) and Ko Wen-je (TPP), but they don’t trust him as much as they trusted Tsai Ing-wen.
With good reason. While Tsai wasn’t a great speaker, she weighed her words carefully, she was always well-prepared for whatever questions she would be asked, and she never acted as if there was only one political party in Taiwan (her governing DPP). In fact, she claimed much of the Taiwanese heritage that the KMT considered their property, most notably the memory of Chiang Ching-kuo – terrible KMT dictator, but also a facilitator of democratic change. From the beginning, and in fact even four years before she actually won the presidency, she made it clear that she stood on the constitutional foundation of the Republic of China (RoC).

That looked easy, but it wasn’t. Before Tsai took office, there were fears that she would be at odds with her party, where a lot of people want the Republic to wear a more Taiwanese, and a less Chinese hat. In fact, many DPP menbers would like to burn the Chinese hat and never wear it again. But Tsai kept these desires under a lid.

Not that China would have reciprocated for that. But China is nothing to wait for anyway. What mattered is that Tsai achieved the same status with the U.S., Taiwan’s main ally, as her KMT predecessor Ma Ying-jeou (“We are no troublemakers”), and then improved Taiwan’s status further, by giving the island a strong international profile and by focusing on economic and social issues at home otherwise.

Lai may find it harder to convince his fellow partisans – and himself – that this is the right course to steer. And he may also have his blunders, although not nearly as badly as you’d have to expect them from Ko Wen-je, who came in third in today’s presidential elections.

But what happened to Lai on December 30th, as explained here by “Frozen Garlic”, wouldn’t have happened to Tsai Ing-wen.

Lai won’t have to overcome a monolithic block of opposition, when seeking compromises with the legislative yuan, i. e. parliament. But he will have to make a case for many of his projects, and he will have to convince not so like-minded politicians that his goals are worth their support.

It seems to me that today’s election day is a pretty good day for Taiwan – though not exactly as good as the two times when Tsai won the presidential elections, in January 2016, and in January 2020. Lai was a successful prime minister and Vice President of Taiwan, but it is hard to imagine the successes in modernizing the country’s economy and in making it a sought-after partner for the international community without Tsai Ing-wen’s leadership. The good news is that the DPP remains a party with great talents: Lai himself, former health minister Chen Shih-chung (if you remember how well Taiwan did during the Covid-19 pandemic), or Audrey Tang, for example.

The President, not the Legislative Yuan, will have the final say in forming a government or cabinet. If Lai Ching-te makes good choices and wins support within the DPP and beyond, he might well earn the DPP a fourth consecutive presidential term, in 2028.

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Friday, December 29, 2023

“Half Investor Angst, Half Schadenfreude”


End of Days?
Seems that Nathan Sperber put a few things straight there:

The essential thing to bear in mind about Western coverage of the Chinese economy is that the bulk of it responds to the needs of the ‘investor community’. For every intervention by a public-minded academic like Ho-fung Hung, there are dozens of specialist briefings, reports, news articles and social media posts whose target audience is indivquaiduals and firms with varying degrees of exposure to China’s market, as well as, increasingly, the foreign policy and security establishments of Western states.

That was in September.
Elsewhere, in “Le Monde Diplomatique”*), Sperber points out that as far as the manufacturing industry is concerned, China adds as much value as the US and the EU combined.

China’s problems lie elsewhere, Sperber writes – the economy doesn’t create a sufficient number of jobs that would match the qualifications of the young. Even though their skills exceed those of previous generations, they have to fear unemployment and poverty. But that, writes Sperber, isn’t something particularly Chinese.

Technically, the country isn’t even in a recession. So don’t expect China to save the West from its own  corporate greed. If you want democracy to prevail, don’t count on a Chinese implosion. Rather than that, disempower the corporations and make sure that political decisions can’t be bought.
________________

Note

*) “Le Monde Dipomatique”, German ed., December 2023, page 21

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Tuesday, December 5, 2023

“New Development Concept” (新发展理念)

If you go by this online glossary by “The Center of Strategic Translation”,

[T]he roots of the problem set tackled by the New Development Concept stretch back to the early Reform Era,

i. e. the late 1970s. Growth had mainly been driven by “government investment in fixed capital assets and strong foreign demand for cheap Chinese goods” – and eventually, rising Chinese wages had to lead to a loss of those markets for cheap products. Also, there were limits to how much infrastructure and building was needed in China.

The “New Development Concept” is described as an answer to the problem the CPC is now facing. It is basically described as an approach to try to access new sources of growth.

Until 2018, that would be a switch from investment-driven to supply-side structural reform, i. e. gradually cutting enterprises that didn’t meet with domestic demand, and support new technological frontiers where the state hoped for new breakthroughs. “[U]nder the pressure of a grueling trade war”, as the article describes it, economic security came to flank the “new development concept”, often borrowing from the already existing Total National Security Paradigm (总体国家安全观).

This “New Development Pattern“ (新发展格局) would rely on

domestic consumers to power the Chinese economy and on a homegrown scientific-industrial complex to power China’s technological advance.

“[A] schema of self-sufficiency” is brought up in this context, but I suppose that shouldn’t be read as if the idea of self-sufficiency hadn’t been around in China before. While food security, for example, seems to have emerged rather recently as a keyword, China has never been too dependent on food imports, despite a rather small (and probably diminishing) share of arable land in its overall territory.

Certainly however, the CPC leaders have been aware of the limits of the post-Mao development model, driven by investment. As early as in 2014, Xi Jinping told Russian television that

After 30 years of reform, China has entered the deep water [or blue water], and all the pleasant reforms have been completed. The delicious meat has been eaten, and what is still on the dishes are rather tough bones. This requires our courage, and steady moves. Courage means to push reform even when it is difficult, and to prove worthy, to tackle the hard bones, and to enter dangerous shoals. Steadiness is about keeping to the accurate direction, driving steadily, and, above all, to avoid disruptive mistakes.

There are arguments that would make China’s “wolf warrior diplomacy” look logical: if China’s economy becomes less attractive for foreign investors, you may have to intimidate them, rather than to lure them. But then, China has since abandoned some of that confrontational policy, at least in its communications with Washington. Maybe the chance of “hostile forces” did come as a surprise for Beijing after all.

As for the glossary, I can’t really judge its accuracy and reliability, but it does look like a good source to me to understand CPC party documents and articles.

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Tuesday, October 10, 2023

Tsai’s Double-Ten Speech: “If we do not progress, our fate will be decided for us”

The following are the Chinese- and English-language versions of President Tsai Ing-wen’s speech as published by the Presidential Office this morning.

20220530_rti_qsl
A promise in every street: “有鳳來儀”, Radio Taiwan International QSL card, 2022

大會主席游錫堃院長、諾魯共和國昆洛斯總統伉儷、聖克里斯多福及尼維斯聯邦萊柏總督、聖文森及格瑞那丁朵根總督，現場的貴賓、好朋友，還有我們剛從亞運歸來的臺灣之光，以及收看電視和網路直播的國人同胞：大家好！ National Day Celebration Chairperson You Si-kun, President Russ Kun and First Lady Simina Kun of the Republic of Nauru, Governor-General Dame Marcella Liburd of the Federation of Saint Christopher and Nevis, Governor-General Dame Susan Dougan of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, distinguished guests, dear friends, Taiwanese heroes who have just returned from the Asian Games, and my fellow citizens watching on TV and online: Good morning.
今天是中華民國112年的國慶日。闊別三年，我們終於脫下口罩、齊聚在此，共度國家的慶典。 Today is the 112th National Day of the Republic of China. After three long years, we are finally taking off our masks to see one another again and are gathered here today to celebrate our country’s National Day.
現場有許多來自全球各地的僑胞，還有許多睽違三年，再次遠道而來的國際友人，我要代表臺灣人民，向大家致上最真摯的感謝。 Today we are joined by many compatriots visiting from across the globe as well as many friends from abroad who have not been to Taiwan for three years. On behalf of the people of Taiwan, I extend my sincerest thanks to you all.
回首三年來辛苦的防疫之路，彷彿那段日子已經很遙遠。然而，有另一條艱辛的路，我們走了三十年。 Looking back on those challenging three years of responding to the pandemic, it feels like it has been a very long time. But, in fact, there is another path beset with challenges that we have walked for 30 years.
不前進就倒退，不奮進就被決定命運 If we do not move forward, we move backward; if we do not progress, our fate will be decided for us
就在上個月底，「潛艦國造」的第一艘原型艦下水了。在完成後續的測試後，這艘「海鯤軍艦」預計在2025年正式服役。 Late last month, the prototype of our first indigenous submarine was launched. Once it has completed testing, this submarine, Narwhal, is set to officially enter into service in 2025.
潛艦國造是歷經三十年，不同政黨的總統，都想實現的夢想。現在，我們做到了！ For the last three decades, producing a domestically developed submarine has been a dream of presidents from different parties. Now, we have made this dream a reality.
從無到有，踏出這一步需要無比的勇氣。要扛住壓力，要突破瓶頸，要頂住流言蜚語，只要稍有猶豫，就會失敗。 As we started from scratch, taking this leap required immense courage, because when facing pressure, overcoming obstacles, and standing up to disparaging and false narratives, any hesitation would lead to failure.
但是，我們終於做到了！我們的國防自主再跨出一大步，國軍不對稱戰力再向上提升；我們更再次展現，守護中華民國臺灣的決心。我相信，全世界更會認同，海鯤軍艦是為了守護區域和平穩定而破浪前行。 But, at the end of the day, we did it. We took a big step forward in our national defense self-sufficiency and further enhanced the asymmetric capabilities of our military. We once again demonstrated our resolve to defend the Republic of China (Taiwan). I believe that the whole world will recognize that Narwhal has taken to the waves to safeguard regional peace and stability.
這正是中華民國立足臺灣七十四年來，之所以屹立不搖的精神。面對特殊的國際處境和瞬息萬變的挑戰，我們不前進就會倒退；不奮進努力，就無法掌握自己的未來和命運。 This is a reflection of the unwavering spirit that has underpinned the Republic of China since establishing itself in Taiwan 74 years ago. As we face unique international circumstances and rapidly changing challenges, if we do not move forward, we will move backward. And if we do not give our all to make progress, we will not be able to decide our own future, our own fate.
感謝臺灣人民，在艱難挑戰中落實改革 Thank you to the people of Taiwan for facilitating reform during challenging times
尤其，這七年多來，國際及區域的政經情勢複雜多變，加上百年大疫與極端氣候，在在挑戰民主國家中，政府治理的韌性機制；也挑戰民主社會中，人與人的信任基礎。 Over the past seven years in particular, we have seen a complicated and changing political and economic landscape, both internationally and regionally, and on top of that, an unprecedented pandemic and extreme weather. Time and again, these have challenged the resilience of governance in democratic countries as well as the foundation of trust between people in democratic societies.
我從未忘記我對改革的承諾，也深知改革所帶來的衝突和陣痛。我要感謝臺灣人民，我們總是能用團結戰勝恐懼，用包容化解仇恨，用民主克服挑戰。 But not once have I forgotten my pledge to reform, and I am deeply aware of the friction and discomfort that reform brings. I want to thank the people of Taiwan, because we are always able to conquer fear through our solidarity, to resolve hostility through our tolerance, and to overcome challenges through our democracy.
婚姻平權法案通過已經四年了。我要感謝反對者的包容，成就了一個讓全世界羨慕的臺灣，每一對相愛的彼此，都能幸福成家的國度。 It has been four years since the passing of legislation for marriage equality in Taiwan. I want to thank those who opposed this for their tolerance, making Taiwan, a country where any two people who love each other can start a family and find happiness, the envy of the world.
我要深深感謝全體軍公教夥伴的諒解。為了讓年金的財務能夠永續，我們一起完成過去無法做到的「年金改革」，也讓政府的財政更有餘裕，來照顧下一代。 I am also deeply thankful to all our military personnel, civil servants, and educators for their understanding. To ensure that pension finances are sustainable, together we have achieved what was once impossible – pension reform. This has given the government more financial resources to look after the next generation.
我也要謝謝勞工朋友的體諒。雖然，我們還沒走完年金改革的最後一哩路，但我們從2020年起，陸續編列了2,670億元預算，撥補勞保基金。我期盼，下一階段勞保財務的改革，能夠在穩定的財務基礎上、在社會的理性對話中，凝聚共識、穩健進行。 I also want to thank the workers for their understanding. Even though we have yet to complete the last mile of our pension reform, we have from 2020 gradually allocated NT$267 billion to supplement the Labor Insurance Fund. I hope that in the next stage of labor finance reform, we can forge consensus and make steady progress through rational dialogue in society and on a solid financial basis.
與此同時，我們連續八年調漲基本工資，並以所累積的經驗為基礎，提出「最低工資法」草案，送交立法院審議。蔡英文沒有忘記要照顧勞工的承諾。 Meanwhile, we have raised the minimum wage for eight consecutive years. And, using our accumulated experience, we proposed a draft bill for a minimum wage law and submitted it to the Legislative Yuan for review. I have not forgotten my pledge to look after workers.
前陣子，我遇到了一對來自桃園的夫妻，他們是投入「包租代管」的公益出租人。他們跟我說，社宅出租的，不只是「一間房」，而是要給房客「一個家」。 Some time ago, I met a married couple from Taoyuan. They were public welfare landlords who were participating in the subletting management scheme. They told me that social housing rentals are not merely “rooms” for tenants, but “homes.”
我要感謝在臺灣不同角落，這樣溫暖投入推動社宅的朋友。七年多來，我們在起步階段的困難中前進，並且奠定基礎；如今，社會住宅運動，逐漸卸下標籤，成為社區的正向力量；八年20萬戶的目標，也將在2024年底達成。 I want to thank our friends from every corner of Taiwan who have so passionately participated in the promotion of social housing. Over these past seven years and more, we have overcome the difficulties of this endeavor’s early phases and set a foundation. Today, the social housing movement has shed the labels of the past and become a force for good in our communities. Our goal of reaching 200,000 social housing units in eight years is set to be completed by the end of 2024.
「居住正義」這條路仍然漫長，但經過這幾年的經驗累積，我相信，未來一定可以在正確的道路上加速前進。 There is still a long way to go to achieve housing justice. But with the experience we have attained over the past few years, I believe we can accelerate our progress down the right track.
我還記得，剛接任總統時，臺灣的電力備轉容量率，曾經最低只有1.64%。但這七年多來，我們大幅提高能源供應，也全力推動能源轉型，終於在去年迎來了轉捩點，讓綠電的總發電量，首度超越核電。 I recall that when I first took office, Taiwan’s electrical operating reserve had hit a low of 1.64 percent. But during these past seven years, we have substantially increased energy supply and have done our utmost to promote an energy transition. And last year, we finally reached a turning point with green energy generation surpassing that of nuclear energy for the first time.
現在，陽光越強，氣候越炎熱，就越不用擔心午後缺電。在傍晚的尖峰時段，我們的備轉容量率，也能夠維持在7%到10%的穩定狀況。 These days, as we have stronger sunlight and warmer weather, we need not worry about afternoon electricity shortages. At evening peak hours, our operating reserve has held steady between 7 and 10 percent.
我們在跟時間賽跑，克服種種困難，一步步實現能源轉型。面對世界急起直追「2050淨零轉型」的目標，臺灣的再生能源發展、儲能網絡建構，和電網韌性強化，只能快、不能慢，更不能走回頭路。 We are in a race against time, overcoming all manner of challenges, and taking one step at a time to achieve a transition to green energy. In the face of intense global competition in the race to achieve net-zero emissions, Taiwan’s renewable energy development, energy storage network construction, and grid resilience enhancements must gather pace, and we cannot look back.
七年厚實國力，臺灣已是世界的臺灣 After seven years strengthening our nation, Taiwan has become a Taiwan of the world
除了推動改革，過去七年多，我們在劇烈變遷的兩岸及國際情勢中，傾全力發展經濟、厚實國力、照顧人民、確保國家安全、穩定兩岸情勢，並且爭取國際支持。 In addition to promoting reform, while facing the drastic changes in cross-strait and international affairs of these past seven years, we have done our utmost to develop the economy, strengthen our country, take care of our people, ensure national security, stabilize the situation across the strait, and garner global support.
經過全體國人七年多的努力打拚，臺灣的經濟，不僅展現強大的韌性，更成為驅動全球供應鏈重組的關鍵力量，中華民國的國力變強了！ Thanks to the hard work of our people over these seven years, Taiwan’s economy has not only proven to be highly resilient, but has become a key force in the restructuring of global supply chains. The Republic of China has increased its national strength.
我們的GDP規模，從我上任時的17.5兆元大幅成長，今年預計將突破23兆元。而在這幾年全球飽受經濟停滯，以及通膨所苦的局勢下，臺灣這幾年來的平均經濟成長率，仍可維持高於全球平均值，站穩四小龍之首，並且維持相對穩定的物價。 Our GDP has grown considerably from NT$17.5 trillion when I first took office and is forecast to top NT$23 trillion this year. In recent years the whole world has felt the full impact of economic stagnation and the pain of inflation. During this time, Taiwan’s economy has been able to outperform the global average as well as the Four Asian Tigers, while maintaining greater price stability.
同時，我們還保持財政穩健，將連續六年的政府歲計賸餘，跟全民共享，除了發放消費券來促進消費，也透過像是普發現金、TPASS、擴大租金補貼等措施，協助大家減輕生活負擔；我們更加強平衡城鄉發展，加大投資中小企業的產業轉型升級。 At the same time, we have maintained fiscal stability, allowing us to share the budget surpluses of the past six years with the people. In addition to distributing stimulus vouchers to encourage spending, we have initiated economic stimulus programs including cash subsidies, the TPASS, and increased rental subsidies to help reduce the burdens on everyday life. We have also stepped up our efforts toward balancing development in urban and rural areas and invested more in the industrial transformation of small- and medium-sized enterprises.
我們也全力推動「六大核心戰略產業」、大力投入基礎建設，帶動臺灣產業完成了「典範轉移」。尤其是強大的科技實力和製造能力，讓臺灣成為全球供應鏈重組中，不可或缺的關鍵角色。 We have also given our all to promote the Six Core Strategic Industries, making major investments in infrastructure to facilitate a paradigm shift in Taiwan’s industrial sector. Taiwan’s particularly strong technology and manufacturing sectors have made Taiwan an indispensable actor in the global restructuring of supply chains.
因此，我們也翻轉了過度依賴單一市場的狀況。我們對美國的出口金額翻倍成長；而今年6月，我們跟美國完成簽署的「臺美21世紀貿易倡議」首批協定，就是率先各國、創新觀念的全新貿易協定。 Through these efforts, we have also reduced our over-reliance on a single market. Our exports to the United States have more than doubled. And this past June, we completed the signing of the first agreement under the Taiwan-US Initiative on 21st-Century Trade, a trade agreement that is both globally pioneering and conceptually innovative.
經過七年多的耕耘，我們對新南向國家的出口貿易，創史上新高；我們也強化與歐洲鏈結，現在，歐盟已經是臺灣最大的外資來源。我們用經濟實力，向全世界證明臺灣無可取代的重要性。 After more than seven years of hard work, our exports to New Southbound Policy countries have reached a record high. We have also deepened connectivity with Europe, as the European Union is now Taiwan’s largest source of foreign investment. We are using our economic strengths to show the world the irreplaceable importance of Taiwan.
而從2016年以來，蔡英文政府始終信守承諾、維持現狀；我們堅守「四個堅持」，不挑釁、不冒進、在壓力下也不屈服，和全球民主國家深化合作，共同維護區域和平穩定，也為世界貢獻良善力量。 Ever since 2016, my administration has kept its promises and maintained the status quo. We have adhered to the Four Commitments. We do not provoke, we do not act rashly, and we will absolutely not bow to pressure. We have deepened our cooperation with democratic countries around the world as we work together to maintain regional peace and stability, acting as a force for good in the world.
對岸因颱風而豪雨成災，我們展現人道關懷；土耳其發生震災，我們挺進第一線；俄烏戰爭爆發，我們堅定與烏克蘭站在一起。當然，我們更不會忘記，三年疫情期間，民主夥伴互相馳援那股「善的循環」。 When a typhoon caused heavy and disastrous rains across the strait, we expressed our heartfelt concern. When Türkiye experienced a devastating earthquake, we deployed our response effort to the very frontline. When Russia invaded Ukraine, we stood firm with Ukraine. And of course, we will never forget the virtuous cycle generated by democratic partners coming to one another’s aid during the three years of the pandemic.
儘管阻撓未曾停歇，但我們沒有停下走向世界的腳步。臺日友情堅定不移、臺美關係堅若磐石；我們的友邦和理念相近國家，在國際場域力挺臺灣；來自不同國家的年輕人，在社群上串連「Viva Taiwan」。 While obstacles have not ceased, neither have we stopped engaging with the world. Friendship between Taiwan and Japan is unwavering, and our relationship with the United States is rock-solid. Both diplomatic allies and like-minded countries have voiced their support for Taiwan on the international stage, and young people from various countries have spread the message of the Viva Taiwan campaign online.
臺灣的民主成就，已成為世界標竿，臺灣的屹立不搖，更無疑是全球民主永續發展，及安全繁榮的最大保證。 Taiwan’s democratic achievements have set a benchmark for the world. Our steadfast resolve stands as a global bulwark of democratic sustainability, security, and prosperity.
自信沉穩，持續貢獻區域和平穩定 Calm and confident, making a continued contribution to regional peace and stability
現在的臺灣，已經是世界的臺灣。我們已經證明了，無論在地緣戰略、全球民主發展，或國際供應鏈體系，我們都是最可靠、最有效率、最安全的合作夥伴；國際支持我們的力量，也來到前所未有的團結堅實。 Taiwan at this moment has become a Taiwan of the world. In geostrategy, the development of global democracy, and international supply chain systems, we are the most reliable, effective, and safest partner to the world. The strength of international support for us has reached an unprecedented height.
此時此刻的我們，已經能自信堅定，面向世界；我們也更能自信沉穩，面對中國，為未來的發展，創造兩岸和平共存的條件。 Since this is a time we can now face the world with confidence and resolve, we can also be calm and self-assured in facing China, creating conditions for peaceful coexistence and future developments across the Taiwan Strait.
做為總統，我的責任就是，守護國家主權，守護兩千三百萬臺灣人民的民主自由生活方式；同時，尋求讓兩岸之間可以和平共處，人民之間，可以自由而無拘束、無負擔的往來；讓臺灣，甚至是兩岸，都能成為區域和平穩定的貢獻者。 It is my duty as president to safeguard our national sovereignty and the democratic and free way of life of the 23 million people of Taiwan; seeking peaceful coexistence, with free, unrestricted, and unburdened interactions between people across the strait. Taiwan, and furthermore both sides across the strait, should be enabled to contribute to regional peace and stability.
我要再次強調，「和平是兩岸的唯一選項，以維持現狀作為各方的最大公約數，就是確保和平的關鍵之鑰」。 Let me reiterate that “peace is the only option across the strait. Maintaining the status quo, as the largest common denominator for all sides, is the critical key to ensuring peace.”
特別是，全球都已經體認到，臺海的和平穩定，是國際社會安全與繁榮不可或缺的要素；任何一方不能片面改變現狀；兩岸分歧須透過和平方式解決。 Particularly, the international community has come to realize that peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait is an indispensable component of global security and prosperity. Neither side can unilaterally change the status quo. Differences across the strait must be resolved peacefully.
因此，我們要持續努力，在確保主權和民主自由之際，能夠在尊重歷史事實之下，持續建構和平穩定的兩岸關係。 While persisting in efforts to ensure our sovereignty, democracy, and freedom, we must be grounded in a respect for historical facts, and continue to construct peaceful and stable cross-strait relations.
今天，許多位政黨領袖和貴賓，都在現場。政黨競爭是民主政治的日常，但我們今天能齊聚在此，正是臺灣難能可貴的民主風景。 Today, many leaders of political parties and other distinguished guests are present. Competition between political parties is a daily reality of democratic politics, but our gathering together here presents a precious landscape of Taiwan’s democracy.
我衷心期盼，在選舉的競爭過後，我們可以放下激情，臺灣內部可以尋求更大的共識，眾志成城，對外團結一致。我相信，這是我們不分朝野政黨，對國家的共同責任。 I sincerely hope that after the competitive elections, we can set aside our passions, and together seek greater agreement, to build a fortress of unity as we face external challenges. I believe this is our shared responsibility to the country, regardless of political party.
我們願意以臺灣的民意共識為基礎，以對等尊嚴為前提，以民主對話為程序，以維持現狀為核心，與北京當局發展雙方可接受的互動基礎，以及和平共存之道。 We are willing to take the Taiwan public consensus*) as a basis, conditioned with dignity and reciprocity, and with a process of democratic dialogue, to develop with the Beijing authorities a mutually acceptable foundation for interaction and a path to peaceful coexistence.
我深信，國際社會對臺灣的支持，只會愈來愈強。在全球共同關注，並致力維繫臺海和平穩定之際，我們必須掌握契機、控管風險，進而讓兩岸成為區域和平穩定的重要貢獻者。而這是臺灣朝野政黨，也是兩岸之間，無可迴避的歷史責任與共同使命。 I deeply believe that international support for Taiwan will only grow stronger. As the world is watching with concern and working to preserve peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, we must grasp the moment of opportunity to manage risk and enable both sides to be contributors to peace. This is not only the shared responsibility of Taiwan’s political parties; it is also an unavoidable historic responsibility and common mission across the strait.
國家繼續前進，讓世界因臺灣而更好 Our country is moving forward, helping make the world a better place
各位國人同胞，無論是六十五年前的八二三戰役，或是如今面對外部威脅的挑戰，我們始終懷抱著，不分彼此、同島一命的信念。 My fellow citizens, whether it is the Second Taiwan Strait Crisis 65 years ago or the external threats we face today, we have always embraced togetherness and the conviction that everyone in Taiwan has a shared destiny.
如今，中華民國臺灣，已經成為兩千三百萬人民的主流共識。這個共識，匯聚了不同族群的歷史情感，和七十四年來福禍與共的體認。 Today, the Republic of China (Taiwan) has become the prevailing consensus of our 23 million people. This consensus is a convergence of the historical sentiments of different groups and the knowledge of the joys and hardships we have shared over the past 74 years.
它更代表，我們會為了團結、為了守護國家、為了捍衛民主自由的生活，願意走近彼此，創造最大的公約數。 It also shows that we are willing to come together and create the largest common denominator in order to foster unity, safeguard our country, and defend our free and democratic way of life.
臺灣的民主，也因此在無比巨大的內外壓力中，成長茁壯，從而孕育出更為堅強的韌性。守護臺灣的民主，就是守護普世價值的民主。 In the midst of tremendous internal and external pressures, Taiwan’s democracy has grown and thrived as a result of that willingness, and we have emerged with even greater resilience. We know that to protect Taiwan’s democracy is to protect the universal value of democracy.
感謝大家的團結一致，我們向全世界點亮了民主臺灣；我們會自信地向世人傳達，臺灣人尊嚴自主、熱情良善。臺灣人樂為世界人，也將世世代代做為民主人、自由人。 Thanks to our solidarity, we have brought the international spotlight to democratic Taiwan. With confidence, we will show the world that the Taiwanese people are dignified, independent, warm, and kind. The Taiwanese people are happy to be people of the world and will be a democratic and free people for generations to come.
感謝臺灣人民給蔡英文兩次機會，擔任中華民國總統，和臺灣人一起打拚，我心中充滿無限感激。 I would like to thank the people of Taiwan for giving me two opportunities to serve as president of the Republic of China and to give my all alongside the Taiwanese people. From the depths of my heart, I am infinitely grateful.
這幾年下來，施政有所成就，也有不盡如人意之處；身為總統，我責無旁貸。這就是民主國家，執政者不能自滿，任何的施政，都要讓更多人民滿意，就是政府永無止境努力的目標。 Over the past several years, we have made achievements in governance, but there have also been areas where we have not met expectations. As president, I cannot shirk my responsibilities. This is a democratic country, and those in power can never be complacent. Each act of governance must bring the people greater satisfaction, and this is the goal of a government’s unceasing efforts.
各位國人同胞，蔡英文的任期會停在明年的520，但國家要繼續前進。 My fellow citizens, my term will end on May 20 next year, but our country will continue moving forward.
我相信，自信沉穩的臺灣，一定會繼續前進。我們不只要給世界更好的臺灣，更要讓世界因為民主臺灣而更好。 I have no doubt that Taiwan, calm and confident, will continue moving forward. We not only want to give the world a better Taiwan, we want to make the world better because of democratic Taiwan.
臺灣加油！中華民國加油！謝謝大家。 I wish all the best to Taiwan. I wish all the best to the Republic of China. Thank you.

Footnote

________________

*)    Tsai combined mínyì and gòngshi today – at times in the past, she has also referred to the “Taiwan Consensus” simply as táiwan gòngshi.

A few takeaways

President Tsai’s speech is a proud speech, and justifiably so. Whoever is going to succeed her as president next year will have to live up to the standards set by her. Her administration seems to have shown an exemplary combination of ingenuity and pragmatism where their predecessors under Ma Ying-jeou had mostly banked on “cooperation with China”. In that regard, Tsai was lucky: the standards set by her predecessor were rather poor. She was also lucky as her mainland counterpart Xi Jinping turned up as her effective canvasser in January 2019, during the early days of the election campaigns in Taiwan that gave her a second term a year later.

Taiwan offered shortwave listeners in the region (and maybe beyond) a nice gift on the occasion of its national day: Radio Taiwan International’s Mandarin service transmitted live coverage from the celebrations in Taipei on several shortwave frequencies*)  this morning – a software-defined receiver in northern Taiwan helped me to listen to a rather clear signal even here in Europe. Of course, there were also live transmissions on the internet, even in German, but I only believe that things happen when they happen on shortwave.

Note

*)    9670 kHz, 9790 kHz, 12100 kHz (and maybe more than these).

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Monday, August 14, 2023

July Review: “Economy against the Wall, in a Cheap New Car”

“China is haunted by a secter”, Radio Austria’s China correspondent reported on July 11, “the specter of deflation”. The car market served as an example, with prices going down by the week, with inflation at zero percent, and producers’ prices at minus five percent. Price expectations that postpone purchases because cars will be cheaper one week later, and still cheaper two weeks later, put the breaks on demand, which makes profits drop, which makes wages drop, which makes demand drop further: “a downward spiral”, the correspondent explained. Add China’s family’s reduced savings (because of the pandemic), youth unemployment, interest rate cuts that don’t work anymore, and a general feeling of pessimism among the population. Investment by the state, on tick if need be, looked like the last resort.

You can see the state’s perplexity from the car market: China subsidizes the purchase of electric vehicles, thus contributing to the falling prices. The car manufacturers, on the other hand, have been told to stop their discount battle, but with little avail so far. Still, the subsidies continue, as if China wanted to drive its economy into the wall, in a cheap new car.

Die Ratlosigkeit des Staates kann man am Automarkt gut erkennen: China subventioniert den Kauf von Elektroautos und trägt damit zum Preisverfall bei. Die Autohersteller wurden hingegen zu einem Ende der Rabattschlacht gezwungen, bisher aber mit wenig Erfolg. Die staatlichen Subventionen laufen aber weiter. Es sieht fast so aus, als ob China seine Wirtschaft im billigen Neuwagen gegen die Wand fährt.

20230704_cctv_its_all_about_dollars
It’s all about dollars, CCTV coverage, July 4, 2023

As the promise of rising prosperity loses some of its luster, repression has to take its place: the spy that reported you may well be your neighbor, your wife, or your own child. The espionage law, in its second article, points out that

Anti-espionage work insists on the party central committee’s centralized and unified leadership, the overall concept of national security, joint open and secret work, the combination of specialized and mass-line work, insisting on proactive defense, punishment in accordance with the law, treatment of both the cause and the symptoms, and the strengthening of the national people’s defense line.

第二条　反间谍工作坚持党中央集中统一领导，坚持总体国家安全观，坚持公开工作与秘密工作相结合、专门工作与群众路线相结合，坚持积极防御、依法惩治、标本兼治，筑牢国家安全人民防线。

Apart from some typical cases of espionage, the anti-espionage law, states in the first paragraph of its fourth article that

Espionage as stated in this law refers to the following activities:

(1) Activities that endanger national security, carried out or prompted or financially aided by espionage organizations and their agents, or carried out by organizations or individuals in collusion with them.

本法所称间谍行为，是指下列行为：
（一）间谍组织及其代理人实施或者指使、资助他人实施，或者境内外机构、组织、个人与其相勾结实施的危害中华人民共和国国家安全的活动

[…]

According to article 13,

People’s governments at all levels and related departments should organize and develop anti-espionage vigilance propaganda and education, turn the anti-espionage law’s vigilance knowledge into educational, training, and law popularization content, and strengthen the entire people’s anti-espionage awareness and self-cultivation.

第十三条　各级人民政府和有关部门应当组织开展反间谍安全防范宣传教育，将反间谍安全防范知识纳入教育、培训、普法宣传内容，增强全民反间谍安全防范意识和国家安全素养。

I’ve tried my own bits of translation (taking the CPC folklore it contains into account), but there’s a full translation as well, done by China Law Translate and republished by the American Air University.

“China Daily”, on August 4, wrote that

some Western media outlets have recently expressed so-called “concerns” over the law, sensationalized its impact on investment and business environment, and some even maliciously misinterpreted it as “encouraging citizens to spy on each other”.

The paper quotes an official with the ministry of state security as saying that “companies and their employees who abide by Chinese law and provide normal commercial services are not bound by the article”. Which still leaves the question open what is considered abidance, and what isn’t.

What struck me is that in defense of its “anti-espionage law”, Chinese media rarely seem to emphasize that there is actually knowledge that needs to be protected, because the country is switching from mostly growth-driven to “high-quality” development (which would, obviously, presume that there is stuff foreign agents would want to steal in the first place).

Then again, intimidation is definitely one of the objectives, if not the main objective, of the “anti-spy law”.

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Tuesday, June 20, 2023

Henan’s “100-Day Action Plan” to combat Youth Unemployment

China’s Henan province has unveiled a 100-day plan to “dynamically clear” youth unemployment as concern grows over record levels of joblessness among young adults, Reuters reported on June 1, adding that there were millions more students due to graduate this year. Also according to Reuters,  youth unemployment was at a record high nationwide in April. Economists expected youth unemployment to become “increasingly common in coming years as graduates enter the job market”.

henan_graduates_employment_guidance_online
Full of joy: the Henan provincial graduates’ employment guide

According to a “Red Star” article, among the sixteen to 24 years-old, the unemployment rate nationwide was at 18.2 percent in April this year, and rose further to 18.4 percent by May. That was four times the overall unemployment rate, and a record high ever since this statistic had been introduced in 2018.

The “Red Star” reporters go further into the provincial “action plan” details. Basically, the universities are assigned with the task to “guide students” into work, mostly by counselling and by finding out about what inhibits them personally, things such as “being in a hesitant rather than a pioneering state of mind” (求稳思维) or being “slow to work” (慢就业), i. e. just not in a hurry – travelling, tutoring or staying with their parents. Studying abroad, too, is counted into “slow to work”.

The universities get the hot potato from the provincial government: they are apparently supposed to “clear” long-term unemployed graduates and graduates from families with a history of unemployment (零就业家庭 ) by August 31.

A CASS professor, Cai Fang (蔡昉), appears to be one of the ecoomists referred to by Reuters. In September 2022, “Interpreter”, a public-domain project run by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Cai wrote that

According to UN population projections, the share of the relatively young (16-24 years old) in China’s total working-age (16-64 years old) population is expected to increase from 14.8 percent in 2022 to 17.0 percent in 2035. At the ame time, the share of the older population (46-64 years old) will increase from 40.4 percent to 43.1 percent, and the share of the population between 25 and 45 years old will fall from 44.7 percent to 39.9 percent.
根据联合国人口预测，在中国全部16~64岁劳动年龄人口中，相对年轻的16~24岁人口占比，预计从2022年的14.8%提高到2035年的17.0%；与此同时，46~64岁人口占比从40.4%提高到43.1%，25~45岁人口占比从44.7%降低到39.9%

(See figure 1 there.)
While

China no longer faces total employment pressure. However, China will also be in the most dramatic period of development in terms of the progress and application of technology, and of structural change in industry.
[…..] 总体而言中国不再面临就业总量的压力。然而，中国也将处于科技进步与运用，以及产业结构变化最急剧的发展时期。

Cai points to the experience of other countries in the past:

International experience shows that when there is a shock to economic growth, if the policy response
is not timely and appropriate, the shock will leave a “scar” that affects subsequent development, producing a so-called “hysteresis effect” that makes the post-recovery norm in economic growth less favorable than before. Similarly, if the response to cyclical unemployment is not timely, comprehensive, and appropriate, or if it relies only on macroeconomic stimulus without simultaneously addressing the structural and frictional contradictions*) in the labor market, it may leave a “scar” on the employment issue, such that the post-recovery labor market operates with a higher natural rate of unemployment. Although the fundamentals of China’s economy have not changed due to the temporary macroeconomic downturn, the labor market landscape may indeed change as the population enters an era of negative growth
and economic growth faces new challenges.
国际经验表明，在经济增长遭遇周期性冲击的情况下，如果政策应对不及时、不恰当，便会留下影响后续发展的“伤痕”（Scar），产生所谓的“磁滞效应”（Hysteresis），使复苏之后的经济增长处于一个较前更为不利的常态下。与此类似，如果应对周期性失业的举措不及时、不全面和不对症，或者仅仅依靠宏观经济刺激作用，而不能同时解决劳动力市场的结构性和摩擦性矛盾，那么可能在就业问题上会留下“伤痕”，使经济复苏后的劳动力市场在更高的自然失业率下运行。虽然中国经济的基本面未因暂时的宏观经济下行而改变，但是随着人口进入负增长时代，经济增长面临崭新挑战，劳动力市场格局确有可能发生变化。

The whole paper by Cai is available at “Interpret” in both English and Chinese. You can even compare the texts, paragraph-on-paragraph.

What are the goals of Henan’s provnincial government? One objective goal may be to keep the impact from “structural and frictional contradictions” as small as possible. Another goal probably is to satisfy the CPC’s central committee in Beijing, or to have plans to show when having to justify themselves for slow progress in bringing youth unemployment down. Henan is one of the provinces geographically closest to Beijing, and people have probably lost count of the number of visits Xi Jinping and other leading cadres have paid there.

There’s no reason for doom-and-gloom forecasts about China’s economy. There is, however, reason to believe that many young Chinese people will suffer the downsides of the “era-of-high-quality development” that has been heralded by Xi Jinping since October 2017.

That said, no matter if “Chinese-style modernization” or “four modernizations” or what have you, international experience suggests that every developed economy and society has to go through these kinds of unemployment issues.

Then what is “Chinese-style modernization” about? What makes it different from modernization elsewhere Maybe Reuters June-1 article provides an answer:

Heavy-handed tactics to stamp out COVID saw students confined to campuses for long stretches, adding to frustration that led to rare student protests against COVID policies in late 2022.
Industries popular among new graduates in China, such as tech, education, real estate and finance, have all faced regulatory crackdowns in recent years.

________________

Notes

*)    According to Cai Fang’s paper, the definition would be this:
structural unemployment
+ frictional unemployment
= natural unemployment
结构性失业、摩擦性失业（两者合并为自然失业）.
Structural unemployment (摩擦性失业) is “a form of involuntary unemployment caused by a mismatch between the skills that workers in the economy can offer, and the skills” (Wikipedia).
Frictional unemployment is “a form of unemployment reflecting the gap between someone voluntarily leaving a job and finding another. As such, it is sometimes called search unemployment, though it also includes gaps in employment when transferring from one job to another” (Wikipedia).

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Tuesday, June 13, 2023

Ramaphosa-Xi Phone Call: “China and South Africa are important developing countries”

The following is my translation of a communiqué published by the Chinese foreign ministry, summarizing a telephone conversation between Chinese State Chairman Xi Jinping and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa. It’s followed by a copy & paste of the South African president’s press release concerning his telephone call with Xi.

Links within bllockquotes added during translation.

–

CCTV Evening News, June 10, 2023 

(1) FMPRC communiqué

Main Link: Xi Jinping has a telephone conversation with South African President Ramaphosa

习近平同南非总统拉马福萨通电话
2023-06-10 00:26
Xi Jinping has a telephone conversation with South African President Ramaphosa
2023年6月9日晚，国家主席习近平应约同南非总统拉马福萨通电话。
In the evening of June 9, State Chairman Xi Jinping accepted an invitation by South African President Ramaphosa for a phone call.
习近平指出，中国和南非都是重要的发展中大国，两国有着兄弟般的特殊友好关系。中南关系对于维护广大发展中国家共同利益、引领中非团结合作具有重要战略意义。今年是金砖“南非年”，两国关系面临重要发展机遇。中方愿同南非提升两国关系水平，构建高水平中南命运共同体，一道践行真正的多边主义，携手维护广大发展中国家共同利益，推动国际秩序朝着更加公正合理的方向发展。中方支持南非作为轮值主席国，办好今年金砖合作各项活动。
Xi Jinping pointed out that both China and South Africa are important developing countries with a brotherly extraordinary friendship. Chinese-South African relations were of strategic significance for the protection and broadening of developing countries’ common interests and for leading the way for Sino-African unity and cooperation. This year is the BRICS countries‘ “South African year” with important development opportunities for the two countries [China and South Africa]. China wanted to raise the level of the two countries’ relations, build a high-level Sino-South African community of common destiny , practice genuine multilateralism together, join hands to protect and broaden developing countries common interests , and promote a fairer and more reasonable direction of the international order. China supports South Africa’s rotational chairmanship and successful cooperation activities of BRICS this year.
拉马福萨表示，南非高度珍视南中强有力、高水平的战略伙伴关系，对此深感自豪。南中合作使非洲受益。南非致力于同中方一道，推动南中关系不断发展。南非将同中国等金砖成员国为加强金砖合作深化沟通协调。
Ramaphosa said that South Africa highly appreciates strong and high-level strategic partnership and is deeply proud of it. South African-Chinese cooperation is beneficial for Africa. South Africa makes efforts to promote, together with China, the continuous development of South African-Chinese relations. South Africa will deepen communication and coordination with China and the other BRICS member states to strengthen and deepen BRICS cooperation.
双方还就乌克兰危机交换了意见。拉马福萨表示，南非支持中方提出的关于政治解决乌克兰危机的立场文件，希望有关各方尽快恢复谈判。南非等非洲六国领导人组成的和平代表团将访问俄罗斯和乌克兰，推动冲突尽快结束。习近平指出，中方在乌克兰危机上的立场是一贯的，概括起来就是劝和促谈。希望各方为通过对话解决危机积累有利条件。总统先生同非洲有关国家领导人组成和平代表团访问俄罗斯和乌克兰，这是好事。希望全世界爱好和平、坚持正义的国家都能够发出劝和促谈的理性声音。
The two sides exchanged opinions about the Ukraine crisis. Ramaphosa said that South Africa supports China’s position paper concerning a political solution of the Ukraine crisis and hoped that the parties involved would resume talks as soon as possible. The delegation made up by leaders of the six African countries, including South Africa’s, that are to visit Russia and Ukraine, promoted an end, as early as possible, to the conflict. Xi Jinping pointed out that China’s position on Ukraine is consistent, and in short, the task is to encourage peace and to urge talks. Hopefully, all parties would accumulate good conditions to resolve the crisis through dialogue. The delegation of Mr. President and the relevant African countries’ leaders would visit Russia and Ukraine – that was a good thing. Hopefully, all the world’s peace-loving and justice-seeking countries would be able to make themselves heard with voices of peace and reason.

(2) President Ramaphosa’s press release

President Ramaphosa briefs President Xi Jin Ping on African Peace Mission to Ukraine and Russia
10 June 2023 – 2:30pm
President Cyril Ramaphosa has briefed Chinese President Xi Jin Ping on the African Leaders Peace Mission to Ukraine and Russia.
President Ramaphosa noted the peace plan that has been proposed by China and affirmed South Africa’s and the African leaders support of initiatives that are aimed at a peaceful resolution of the conflict. President Xi Jin Ping commended the initiative by the African continent and acknowledged the impact the conflict has had on human lives and on food security in Africa.
The leaders also discussed their cooperation at BRICS and preparations for the upcoming BRICS summit. They both committed to work towards a successful summit.

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