Progressive Conservative Party

Latest update: March 20, 2026

Leader	Doug Ford
Popular vote in 2025	43.0%
Current vote projection	44.1% ± 4.2%
Current number of MPP	79
Current seat projection	80 [66-89]

Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Vote projection | March 20, 2026

Seat projection | March 20, 2026

List of favourable electoral districts | Progressive Conservative Party

	Electoral districts	Current party	Projection
1.	Timmins George Pirie	PC	Safe PCPO
2.	Vaughan—Woodbridge Michael Tibollo	PC	Safe PCPO
3.	King—Vaughan Stephen Lecce	PC	Safe PCPO
4.	Thornhill Laura Smith	PC	Safe PCPO
5.	Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry Nolan Quinn	PC	Safe PCPO
6.	Markham—Unionville Billy Pang	PC	Safe PCPO
7.	Kenora—Rainy River Greg Rickford	PC	Safe PCPO
8.	Etobicoke North Doug Ford	PC	Safe PCPO
9.	York—Simcoe Caroline Mulroney	PC	Safe PCPO
10.	Brampton North Graham Mcgregor	PC	Safe PCPO
11.	Elgin—Middlesex—London Rob Flack	PC	Safe PCPO
12.	Essex Anthony Leardi	PC	Safe PCPO
13.	Nipissing Vic Fedeli	PC	Safe PCPO
14.	Oxford Ernie Hardeman	PC	Safe PCPO
15.	Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke Billy Denault	PC	Safe PCPO
16.	Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes Steve Clark	PC	Safe PCPO
17.	Lambton—Kent—Middlesex Stephen Pinsonneault	PC	Safe PCPO
18.	Barrie—Innisfil Andrea Khanjin	PC	Safe PCPO
19.	Chatham-Kent—Leamington Trevor Jones	PC	Safe PCPO
20.	Dufferin—Caledon Sylvia Jones	PC	Safe PCPO
21.	Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock Laurie Scott	PC	Safe PCPO
22.	Simcoe North Jill Dunlop	PC	Safe PCPO
23.	Sarnia—Lambton Bob Bailey	PC	Safe PCPO
24.	Niagara West Sam Oosterhoff	PC	Safe PCPO
25.	Huron—Bruce Lisa Thompson	PC	Safe PCPO
26.	Brantford—Brant Will Bouma	PC	Safe PCPO
27.	Kitchener South—Hespeler Jess Dixon	PC	Safe PCPO
28.	Brampton West Amarjot Sandhu	PC	Safe PCPO
29.	Durham Todd Mccarthy	PC	Safe PCPO
30.	Windsor—Tecumseh Andrew Dowie	PC	Safe PCPO
31.	Hastings—Lennox and Addington Ric Bresee	PC	Safe PCPO
32.	Perth—Wellington Matthew Rae	PC	Safe PCPO
33.	Thunder Bay—Atikokan Kevin Holland	PC	Safe PCPO
34.	Simcoe—Grey Brian Saunderson	PC	Safe PCPO
35.	Northumberland—Peterborough South David Piccini	PC	Safe PCPO
36.	Brampton East Hardeep Grewal	PC	Safe PCPO
37.	Wellington—Halton Hills Joseph Racinsky	PC	Safe PCPO
38.	Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Michael Parsa	PC	Safe PCPO
39.	Flamborough—Glanbrook Donna Skelly	PC	Safe PCPO
40.	Brampton South Prabmeet Singh Sarkaria	PC	Safe PCPO
41.	Richmond Hill Daisy Wai	PC	Safe PCPO
42.	Algoma—Manitoulin Bill Rosenberg	PC	Safe PCPO
43.	Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston John Jordan	PC	Likely PCPO
44.	Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound Paul Vickers	PC	Likely PCPO
45.	York Centre Michael Kerzner	PC	Likely PCPO
46.	Scarborough North Raymond Cho	PC	Likely PCPO
47.	Brampton Centre Charmaine Williams	PC	Likely PCPO
48.	Bay of Quinte Tyler Allsopp	PC	Likely PCPO
49.	Glengarry—Prescott—Russell Stéphane Sarrazin	PC	Likely PCPO
50.	Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Doug Downey	PC	Likely PCPO
51.	Kitchener—Conestoga Mike Harris	PC	Likely PCPO
52.	Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Neil Lumsden	PC	Likely PCPO
53.	Carleton George Darouze	PC	Likely PCPO
54.	Markham—Thornhill Logan Kanapathi	PC	Likely PCPO
55.	Cambridge Brian Riddell	PC	Likely PCPO
56.	Mississauga—Malton Deepak Anand	PC	Likely PCPO
57.	Scarborough—Rouge Park Vijay Thanigasalam	PC	Likely PCPO
58.	Oakville North—Burlington Effie Triantafilopoulos	PC	Likely PCPO
59.	Whitby Lorne Coe	PC	Likely PCPO
60.	Markham—Stouffville Paul Calandra	PC	Likely PCPO
61.	Pickering—Uxbridge Peter Bethlenfalvy	PC	Likely PCPO
62.	Parry Sound—Muskoka Graydon Smith	PC	Leaning PCPO
63.	Scarborough—Agincourt Aris Babikian	PC	Leaning PCPO
64.	Hamilton Mountain Monica Ciriello	PC	Leaning PCPO
65.	Etobicoke Centre Kinga Surma	PC	Leaning PCPO
66.	Milton Zee Hamid	PC	Leaning PCPO
67.	Peterborough—Kawartha Dave Smith	PC	Leaning PCPO
68.	Mississauga Centre Natalia Kusendova	PC	Leaning PCPO
69.	Newmarket—Aurora Dawn Gallagher Murphy	PC	Leaning PCPO
70.	Sault Ste. Marie Chris Scott [Elected as PC]	I	Leaning PCPO
71.	Mississauga—Streetsville Nina Tangri	PC	Leaning PCPO
72.	Oakville Stephen Crawford	PC	Leaning PCPO
73.	Mississauga—Lakeshore Rudy Cuzzetto	PC	Leaning PCPO
74.	Mississauga East—Cooksville Silvia Gualtieri	PC	Leaning PCPO
75.	Scarborough Centre David Smith	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
76.	Willowdale Stan Cho	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
77.	York South—Weston Mohamed Firin	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
78.	Eglinton—Lawrence Michelle Cooper	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
79.	Burlington Natalie Pierre	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
80.	Mississauga—Erin Mills Sheref Sabawy	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
81.	Ajax Robert Cerjanec	L	Toss up OLP/PC
82.	Mushkegowuk—James Bay Guy Bourgouin	N	Toss up PC/NDP
83.	Humber River—Black Creek Tom Rakocevic	N	Toss up PC/NDP
84.	Don Valley North Jonathan Tsao	L	Leaning OLP
85.	Oshawa Jennifer French	N	Leaning NDP
86.	Kanata—Carleton Karen Mccrimmon	L	Leaning OLP
87.	Niagara Centre Jeff Burch	N	Leaning NDP
88.	Timiskaming—Cochrane John Vanthof	N	Leaning NDP
89.	Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas Sandy Shaw	N	Leaning NDP
90.	Etobicoke—Lakeshore Lee Fairclough	L	Leaning OLP
91.	Thunder Bay—Superior North Lise Vaugeois	N	Leaning NDP
92.	Sudbury Jamie West	N	Likely NDP
93.	St. Catharines Jennie Stevens	N	Likely NDP
94.	Nepean Tyler Watt	L	Likely OLP
95.	Scarborough—Guildwood Andrea Hazell	L	Likely OLP
96.	Windsor West Lisa Gretzky	N	Likely NDP
97.	Nickel Belt France Gélinas	N	Likely NDP
98.	Scarborough Southwest Doly Begum	N	Likely NDP
99.	London—Fanshawe Teresa Armstrong	N	Likely NDP
100.	London North Centre Terence Kernaghan	N	Likely NDP
101.	London West Peggy Sattler	N	Likely NDP
102.	Kiiwetinoong Sol Mamakwa	N	Likely NDP
103.	Toronto—St. Paul’s Stephanie Smyth	L	Likely OLP
104.	Orléans Stephen Blais	L	Likely OLP
105.	Don Valley West Stephanie Bowman	L	Safe OLP
106.	Don Valley East Adil Shamji	L	Safe OLP
107.	Niagara Falls Wayne J. Gates	N	Safe NDP
108.	Haldimand—Norfolk Bobbi Ann Brady	I	IND safe
109.	Ottawa West—Nepean Chandra Pasma	N	Safe NDP
110.	Kitchener Centre Aislinn Clancy	G	Safe GPO
111.	Waterloo Catherine Fife	N	Safe NDP

Progressive Conservative Party

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Vote projection | March 20, 2026

Seat projection | March 20, 2026

List of favourable electoral districts | Progressive Conservative Party