logo
British columbia
British Columbia flag

BC Conservative Party

Latest update: March 14, 2026
LeaderJohn Rustad
Popular vote in 202443.3%
Current vote projection40.6% ± 4.2%
Current seat projection46 [31-58]

Latest from the 338Canada newsletter

Loading latest analysis…


Vote projection | March 14, 2026

31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 36.4% 40.6% ± 4.2% Max. 44.9% Probabilities % CPBC

Seat projection | March 14, 2026

14 19 24 29 34 39 44 49 54 59 64 69 74 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 31 46 Majority 47 seats Max. 58 Probabilities % CPBC

List of favourable electoral districts | BC Conservative Party



Electoral districts Current party Projection
1.
Jordan Kealy [Elected with CP]
I CPBC safe
2.
Larry Neufeld
C CPBC safe
3.
Lorne Doerkson
C CPBC safe
4.
John Rustad
C CPBC safe
5. C CPBC safe
6. C CPBC safe
7. C CPBC safe
8.
Macklin McCall
C CPBC safe
9.
Harman Bhangu
C CPBC safe
10.
Pete Davis
C CPBC safe
11.
Bruce Banman
C CPBC safe
12.
David L. Williams
C CPBC safe
13. C CPBC safe
14.
Teresa Wat
C CPBC safe
15.
Gavin Dew
C CPBC safe
16.
Korky Neufeld
C CPBC safe
17. C CPBC safe
18.
Tony Luck
C CPBC likely
19.
Heather Maahs
C CPBC likely
20.
Brent Chapman
C CPBC likely
21.
Hon Chan
C CPBC likely
22.
Tara Armstrong [Elected with CP]
I CPBC likely
23.
Sharon L. Hartwell
C CPBC likely
24.
Reann Gasper
C CPBC likely
25.
Ian Paton
C CPBC likely
26.
A’aliya Warbus
C CPBC likely
27.
Peter Milobar
C CPBC likely
28.
Dallas Brodie [Elected with CP]
O CPBC likely
29.
Trevor Halford
C CPBC leaning
30.
Mandeep Dhaliwal
C CPBC leaning
31.
Steve Kooner
C CPBC leaning
32.
Donegal Wilson
C CPBC leaning
33.
Claire Rattée
C CPBC leaning
34.
Misty Van Popta
C CPBC leaning
35. C CPBC leaning
36. C CPBC leaning
37.
Elenore Sturko [Elected with CP]
I Toss up
38.
Anna Kindy
C Toss up
39. C Toss up
40.
Amelia Boultbee
C Toss up
41.
Brennan Day
C Toss up
42.
Bryan Tepper
C Toss up
43.
Lawrence Mok
C Toss up
44.
Kristina Loewen
C Toss up
45.
Dana Lajeunesse
N Toss up
46.
Garry Begg
N Toss up
47.
Amna Shah
N Toss up
48.
Harwinder Sandhu
N Toss up
49.
Jodie Wickens
N Toss up
50.
Kelly Greene
N Toss up
51.
Sunita Dhir
N Toss up
52.
Debra Toporowski
N Toss up
53.
Jagrup Brar
N Toss up
54.
Terry Yung
N NDP leaning
55. N NDP leaning
56.
Stephanie Higginson
N NDP leaning
57.
Jessie Sunner
N NDP leaning
58.
Brittny Anderson
N NDP leaning
59.
Josie Osborne
N NDP likely
60. N NDP likely
61.
Janet Routledge
N NDP likely
62.
Reah Arora
N NDP likely
63.
Jeremy Valeriote
G GRN likely
64.
Rick Glumac
N NDP likely
65.
Ravi Kahlon
N NDP likely
66.
Jennifer Blatherwick
N NDP likely
67.
Steve Morissette
N NDP likely
68.
George Anderson
N NDP likely
69.
Anne Kang
N NDP likely
70.
Ravi Parmar
N NDP likely
71. N NDP likely
72.
Mike Farnworth
N NDP likely
73. G GRN likely
74. N NDP likely
75.
Sheila Malcolmson
N NDP likely
76.
George Chow
N NDP likely
77.
Lana Popham
N NDP likely
78.
Tamara Davidson
N NDP safe
79. N NDP safe
80. N NDP safe
81.
Diana Gibson
N NDP safe