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GRAY ZONE
Traders see 1-in-6 odds of a NATO-Russia military clash this year. But the real danger lies in events that will never trigger a YES, argues @MastersJR
PLUS: Three signposts to watch for escalation
The Oracle
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The Oracle
@polymarketinfo
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Joined December 2024
- Odds of NATO Article 5 invoked this year spike to 11% on reports of Russian drones over Poland
- ๐ฎ Mass Migration and Separatist Movements in Canada Maxime Bernier @MaximeBernier is the founder the People's Party of Canada (PPC) and former Minister of Foreign Affairs. Bernier is campaigning on an accommodating response to the Trump tariffs, restricting immigration and
00:00 - DID THEY GET FORDOW? Pentagon: Taken โoff the tableโ Iran: No major damage Polymarket: - 78% chance Fordow destroyed - 17% chance of another US strike on it this month - 16% chance of an Israeli ground op against it
- Nvidia $NVDA just announced the Trump administration has banned them from selling H20 chips to China "for the indefinite future." $5.5 billion charge to Q1 earnings incoming. @DAlperovitch from our recent podcast on the case for stricter GPU export controls on China. Full
00:00 - ๐ฎ TARIFF REFUND? Former White House trade lawyer @petereharrell breaks down the exact moments when conservative Supreme Court justices turned skeptical of Trump's tariff case. And what it means for our $2,000 tariff stimmy checks.
- ๐ฎ The Iranian Regime is Cooked Professional forecaster @Just_Curius called the Iran strikes months in advance. Here's what she thinks happens next:
Just say NO (Nuclear Option!). TERMINATE THE FILIBUSTER!- Trump Bombed Iran. Whatโs Next? -Iran Closes Strait of Hormuz in 2025: 55% (up 23%) - Khamenei out this year: 61% (no change) - US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025: 40% (down 12%) - Israel announces end of combat ops against Iran in June: 26% (up 16%)
- ๐ฎ AUTOMATED MARKET MAKING ON POLYMARKET How @defiance_cr created a profitable liquidity bot and why he decided to open-source it
- ๐ฎ MANGO MARKET How mentions trading pro @mango_lassi went from blowing up his account to $130k in P&L in less than a year.
- ๐ฎ John Bolton: Israel Could Take Out Iran's Nuclear Program Solo Former Trump National Security Advisor @AmbJohnBolton on Trump's leadership style, territorial ambitions, and the potential for a conflict or nuclear deal with Iran. (00:00) Trump's ADHD leadership style (02:10)
00:00 - ๐ฎ SACREBLEU! Polymarket traders are betting on a fast recovery of the stolen Louvre jewels. History suggests otherwise. By @abcdefmlzy
