GRAY ZONE
Traders see 1-in-6 odds of a NATO-Russia military clash this year. But the real danger lies in events that will never trigger a YES, argues @MastersJR
PLUS: Three signposts to watch for escalation
๐ฎ Mass Migration and Separatist Movements in Canada
Maxime Bernier @MaximeBernier is the founder the People's Party of Canada (PPC) and former Minister of Foreign Affairs. Bernier is campaigning on an accommodating response to the Trump tariffs, restricting immigration and
DID THEY GET FORDOW?
Pentagon: Taken โoff the tableโ
Iran: No major damage
Polymarket:
- 78% chance Fordow destroyed
- 17% chance of another US strike on it this month
- 16% chance of an Israeli ground op against it
Nvidia $NVDA just announced the Trump administration has banned them from selling H20 chips to China "for the indefinite future."
$5.5 billion charge to Q1 earnings incoming.
@DAlperovitch from our recent podcast on the case for stricter GPU export controls on China.
Full
๐ฎ TARIFF REFUND?
Former White House trade lawyer @petereharrell breaks down the exact moments when conservative Supreme Court justices turned skeptical of Trump's tariff case.
And what it means for our $2,000 tariff stimmy checks.
Trump Bombed Iran.
Whatโs Next?
-Iran Closes Strait of Hormuz in 2025: 55% (up 23%)
- Khamenei out this year: 61% (no change)
- US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025: 40% (down 12%)
- Israel announces end of combat ops against Iran in June: 26% (up 16%)
๐ฎ John Bolton: Israel Could Take Out Iran's Nuclear Program Solo
Former Trump National Security Advisor @AmbJohnBolton on Trump's leadership style, territorial ambitions, and the potential for a conflict or nuclear deal with Iran.
(00:00) Trump's ADHD leadership style
(02:10)