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Very proud to have my #WorldOnTheBrink with @vermontgmg named as one of the best books of 2024 by the @TheEconomist!
Dmitri Alperovitch
9,031 posts
Dmitri Alperovitch
@DAlperovitch
Geopolitics/NatSec, Russia, China, Cyber. Chairman @SilveradoPolicy; Author WorldOnTheBrink; Host @GeopolDecanted; Founder @alperovitch; Co-Founder @CrowdStrike
- There are many people right now who are arguing that Putin has somehow changed/lost it/gone mad and is not the man he used to be. I couldn't disagree more. They have simply not been paying attention. This is who he has *always* been 🧵
- Zelensky tonight: “If you want to know what Russia is planning, look at what Russia is accusing others of planning to do” (referencing the false accusations that Ukraine is building biological weapons and planning chemical weapons attack)
- For the first time in 22 years, I am actually starting to believe that Putin’s hold on power may be on shaky ground. Not because of some Plpeople’s uprising—that’s a fanciful dream—but because there is now a small but non-zero chance of a palace coup 🧵
- For all the fears over the last nearly 10 years about the Russian hybrid/information warfare capabilities and troll armies, they have completely lost the information war over this invasion of Ukraine
- Zelensky throwing serious shade tonight: “You know they (Russians) used to talk about their biggest dream: to see Paris and die… their dream now is to steal a toilet and die"
00:00 - Now that the Russians have switched tactics from pursuing a rapid victory on the cheap (failed miserably) and reverted to the mean of leveling Ukrainian cities to the ground like they did with Grozny and Aleppo, the goals of the operation are likely changing as well 🧵
- In the last few weeks, I have become increasingly convinced that Kremlin has unfortunately made a decision to invade Ukraine later this winter. While it is still possible for Putin to deescalate, I believe the likelihood is now quite low. Allow me to explain why 🧵
- All 4 major international oilfield servicing firms have now left Russia: Halliburton, Schlumberger, Baker Hughes and Weatherford International Russia will struggle with exploration and servicing of fields without them. China cannot substitute for that lost expertise and tech
- Incredible drone video of a Russian tank column ambush reportedly from 6th regiment near Brovary Region, Kyiv oblast. The audio looks to be an intercept of a Russian officer calling superiors to report the ambush and death of regiment commander
00:00 - Like US DEFCON levels, Russia has a number of readiness levels: 1. CONSTANT 2. ELEVATED 3. MILITARY DANGER 4. FULL Putin ordered nuclear forces to ELEVATED level today. Concerning but not cause for panic yet
- Maker of Russian Ladas shuts down automotive production line due to the inability to procure semiconductors (US Foreign Product Rule in action) Expect major impact on Russian defense and space production as well
- Tough message from Zelensky tonight about discovered atrocities in Ukraine: “This is how the Russian state will now be perceived. This is your image. Your culture and human appearance perished together with the Ukrainian men and women to whom you came”
00:00 - Mayor of Kyiv Klitchko reports that Kyiv is now surrounded making further evacuation of civilians impossible
