Daniel Sapkota (@defiance

Daniel Sapkota

496 posts

Daniel Sapkota

@defiance_cr

cofounder @lightconexyz

Joined November 2024

Pinned
Daniel Sapkota
@defiance_cr
Oct 26, 2025
Markets are complicated because price compresses thousands of variables into a single number. The next step in the evolution of markets is demystifying that number. Polymarket cracked one class of variables: probability. Lightcone will crack another: impact. We'll demystify
Aradtski
@aradtski
Oct 26, 2025
Article
What is Lightcone (the Multiverse protocol)
2 months ago i teamed up with @defiance_cr to build a net-new primitive: a platform to trade financial assets in multiple parallel universes. unlike prediction markets which let you trade the...
30K
Daniel Sapkota
@defiance_cr
Oct 7, 2025
As part of ICE's $2B investment in Polymarket, they'll distribute Polymarket's data to thousands of financial institutions worldwide. But being onchain, you can grab that data yourself. Introducing Poly Data: an open-source repo to collect, store, process, and update the most
59K
Daniel Sapkota
@defiance_cr
May 26, 2025
Article
From Zero Users to DeFi King: The Comeback Story Behind Jeff and Hyperliquid
In 2018, Jeff left Hudson River Trading to build a DeFi exchange. He couldn't get any users and had to shut it down within a few months Five years later, in March 2023, he launched Hyperliquid. Today...
95K
Daniel Sapkota
@defiance_cr
Sep 12, 2025
Article
The Trillion Dollar Vision for Prediction Markets
Most people think of Prediction Markets as a singular thing. They're wrong. Prediction Markets are a combination of multiple categories of markets. Each has unique TAM and difficulties. Each needs its...
37K
Daniel Sapkota
@defiance_cr
Sep 3, 2025
Article
How to add 10X leverage on Polymarket
Summary: Leverage on prediction markets can safely reach 10x, but should focus exclusively on top markets with borrowing APRs around 10-15%. The risk-averse protocols should start slowly at 5x....
46K
Daniel Sapkota
@defiance_cr
Mar 14, 2025
Replying to @levelsio
Disable these flags: chrome://flags/#temporary-unexpire-flags-m133 chrome://flags/#extension-manifest-v2-deprecation-warning chrome://flags/#extension-manifest-v2-deprecation-disabled chrome://flags/#extension-manifest-v2-deprecation-unsupported
Releases · gorhill/uBlock
From github.com
42K
Daniel Sapkota
@defiance_cr
Sep 17, 2025
Replying to @MovieTimeDev
> 78% of Polymarket events resolve "NO" meaning markets consistently overprice unlikely events. This is the alpha by which most sharps make money. If you check the profile of Domer or other OGs, they are holding bunch of Nos at a given time
14K
Daniel Sapkota
@defiance_cr
Sep 4, 2025
Polymarket holdings can be collateralized onchain for lending and margined for leverage Kalshi positions can't DeFi isn't just a culture you tap for liquidity. It's a structural revolution Polymarket should tap into it more and make changes to enable legally viable MM vaults
16K
Daniel Sapkota
@defiance_cr
Aug 22, 2025
DeFi options did $2.14M premium yesterday Polymarket and Kalshi's crypto markets did $14M and is climbing fast Prediction markets are the new options
26K
Daniel Sapkota
@defiance_cr
Aug 14, 2025
75% of Kalshi's Volume last month was in sports. Crazy how the "unregulated" Prediction Market has seen PMF in Macroeconomics, Finance, Politics, and War (~75% of 2025 volume), while the CFTC-regulated one has become a glorified sportsbook
20K
Daniel Sapkota
@defiance_cr
Oct 2, 2025
Most Polymarket traders think they'll hit moonshots with a few big trades. But the OGs make money grinding small edges across thousands of markets. Domer: 77% of profit from <30% moves 50Pence & fhantom: 65% from <30% moves It's not about the shiny bet. It's about the grind.
17K
Daniel Sapkota
@defiance_cr
Oct 6, 2025
I open-sourced PolyMaker because open source kills gatekeepers and drops barriers in new markets. Since launch, dozens have built their first MM scripts using it. @terrytakes101 is experimenting with it in public, breaking down Polymarket rewards in ways everyone can understand.
Terry Lee
@terrytakes101
Oct 6, 2025
I have been reading up & experimenting with prediction markets. Also, I stumbled on @defiance_cr's tool for LP-ing Polymarket after he open- sourced it. Rewards have compressed since (no endless free lunch 🥲), but it's worth scanning daily. I forked his repo and adapted his
25K
Daniel Sapkota
@defiance_cr
Aug 31, 2025
Before the 2024 US election, Polymarket took a risk and decided to give away >$50k per day to its MMs ($1.7 per $100 in volume) Today, they give $0.025 per $100 Polymarket has burned ~$10M. And in doing so, made prediction markets healthy with rebates close to perp exchanges
20K
Daniel Sapkota
@defiance_cr
Aug 2, 2025
Polymarket did over ~$750 million in Volume last month 500 top wallets did ~65% of that. 1000 wallets did ~75% PMs do not escape the power law common in the rest of finance and crypto
14K