scraping tiktok virality to frontrun political prediction markets.
MovieTime
1,609 posts
MovieTime
@MovieTimeDev
health maxi. Angel, investing in the future.
Founder @PredictParity
🪐
Joined July 2024
- How accurate is Polymarket? 89% accurate 1 week out, but in the final 4 hours it jumps to 95% accuracy right before resolution. Fun fact. 78% of Polymarket events resolve "NO" meaning markets consistently overprice unlikely events.
- Analyzed 52,158 Polymarkets at 12hrs before resolution here is what I found >polymarket is within 2-3% of the actual outcome > its most accurate at 80% odds (variance of 0.3%) > least accurate at 50% odds (with a variance of 6.9%)
- 56% of positions bought on Polymarket are held until resolution.
- Now you can trade earnings on polymarket Only a matter of time before we see insidors start trading these on fresh wallets to be anonymous wallets
- low risk trade on Aster > buy NO shares "ASTER hits $4" > buy ASTER tokens > win if it goes up or down > how? (see picture)
- Prediction markets did 180% more volume than Solana Memecoins. Few are ready to have this conversation.
- @idrawline turned $1,366.31 (10 sol) into $681,700.00 (4864 sol) on $sigma. Over 90 days. Thats roughly $7,836 / day (54 sol) a day... Transactions Nelow 👇
- 215 wallets (0.08%) controlled 50% of septembers volume on polymarket for reference domer was 37th with $6,946,682 in volume
- Prediction Market Arbitrage How it works: we need to buy yes it will happen and no it wont happen for under a dollar in the same market. In this example we are buying yes it will happen for $0.19 and no it wont happen for $0.77 for a total of cost $0.96 The thing is ONE of
- Small bettors dominate prediction markets with 55% of them betting under $100 per trade.
- Twitter is a game of greater fool theory Most Influencers don't even trade Change your feed and follow some real traders on prediction markets @Domahhhh best trader I know @25usdc he started with $25 now at 26k pnl @CarOnPolymarket 650k pnl @RookeBrollins 224k pnl @iabvek best
- The UI is for @PredictParity Its something we are building to breakdown the complexity of prediction markets.scraping tiktok virality to frontrun political prediction markets.
