Forget the doctor, get me a mathematician

MathChalkboardTwo other articles, and some brief commentary about them:

It appears that the earlier predictions regarding coronavirus cases and fatalities in the U.S. and U.K. are being revised downward in light of the analysis of data from Italy, China, and Spain (as seen here and here). This isn’t a result of deliberate misinformation; it’s updated information based on more certain data from the other countries.

An unforeseen consequence regarding our health care system being overwhelmed is that non-virus-related deaths are increasing, as folks aren’t going to the doctor or the hospital unless it’s for the virus.  I’m guilty of this myself, although obviously I’m not dealing with any health problems which are life-threatening.

The forest for the trees

objectionMost of the time, I don’t say anything – there are a mixture of reasons.  I don’t want to seem like a know-it-all.  I don’t feel like getting into it with a partisan of one side or another (i.e. the majority of people) when all I want to do is have a beer in peace.  Sometimes it’s just too depressing to talk about.  And a good part of the time, I just genuinely forget that not everybody sees what I see.

The verdict in the George Zimmerman murder case was announced a few hours ago to a cascade of disbelief and rage across the Internet and the MSM.  Continue reading

Looking back at looking forward

I was chatting with a friend recently when I recalled a prediction that I’d made many, many years ago.  It’s useful to look back at such things in order to differentiate one’s self from the huge mass of agitprop-spewing talking heads in today’s Mainstream Media.  The current standard for punditry requires no adherence to fact or reality at all, and this in turn makes it pretty entertaining.  (Take John Derbyshire’s recent swan dive into the shallow end – so breathtakingly free of sense that his brothers-in-pomposity at the National Review have been spinning like tops in their efforts to pretend he never actually wrote for them.)  Alas, I like to look at the facts of the situation in as sober a way as possible, and change what I think when it doesn’t conform.  Nowhere near as much fun to read, I’ll grant, but I never claimed to be anything but stodgy. Continue reading

Panic in the streets

alexToday is the seventieth anniversary of Orson Welles’ and the Mercury Theatre’s famous radio adaptation of H.G. Wells’ War of the Worlds. As a result of that broadcast, panicked residents of New Jersey mistakenly believed that Martians were attacking the Earth, and their state and the city of New York in particular. (That very fact was probably the one biggest tip-off that folks were dealing with a hoax. If you came all the way from Mars and could land on Earth just about anywhere, would you pick New Jersey?)
Continue reading

News you can use (against me later)

love-that-demFirst of all, everyone who’s coming here from the Green blog rolls and such, welcome.  THM won’t be participating in the upcoming Green blog “parties” on Election Day…mostly because I’ll be “on the air”.  Yes, our sister site, The Secret Frequency, a Green podcast, will be on for much of the night with updates, in a fashion that I’ll explain in the next post.

For right now, I wanted to make some predictions having to do with the election and some politics and events in general, because…y’know, that’s what blogs like this do, and because I’m seeing some trends that are neat to mention.  I don’t have the benefit of the megascientific-but-still-somehow-flawed polls…so most of these are a combination of trends with some numbers behind them and a lot of gut feelings.  Ordinarily I cast aspersions on such gut feelings, but hey, going with your gut can often give you some insights that those too deep in the forest might miss.  And of course, going with your gut in doing a blog post and going with your gut when running the country are two very different things, the first being merely fanciful and slightly edgy and the second being galactically stupid.

Anyway, here they are: Continue reading

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