Forget the doctor, get me a mathematician

MathChalkboardTwo other articles, and some brief commentary about them:

It appears that the earlier predictions regarding coronavirus cases and fatalities in the U.S. and U.K. are being revised downward in light of the analysis of data from Italy, China, and Spain (as seen here and here). This isn’t a result of deliberate misinformation; it’s updated information based on more certain data from the other countries.

An unforeseen consequence regarding our health care system being overwhelmed is that non-virus-related deaths are increasing, as folks aren’t going to the doctor or the hospital unless it’s for the virus.  I’m guilty of this myself, although obviously I’m not dealing with any health problems which are life-threatening.

Adding it up

The pandemic appears to be affecting African-American communities disproportionately. This is not so much about the virus itself, but about inequality in the treatment of the health of African-Americans in general. I would also suspect you would find a similar stratification in the treatment of the rich versus the poor in the U.S. This pandemic is serving as a tremendous indictment of the entire socio-economic system in this country; it remains to be seen whether anything will change as a result.

As far as the local spread, the numbers for my county are published here.  They seem to echo other numbers from other locations in terms of proportion, at the very least, which lends them credence.

I hate to say this, because it sounds callous.  It is callous, really, but it’s also true and it’s something I believe we all need to keep in mind for our own individual sanity.  We are hearing a lot about various cases of this disease which make it sound extremely scary and unbelievably lethal.  These stories are true: it is possible to contract and to die from this disease if you are younger; if you have no underlying health conditions or compromised immune function; if you are taking reasonable precautions.  Our media, because they are click-driven, is full of such stories.  We are attuned to listen to stories as human beings, and stories do matter.  But we also need to remember that these are anecdotes.  They represent one person each — a person whose death, had it been from any other disease or accident, you would have remained blissfully unaware of.  The statistics for this disease are telling a different story than the media accounts, and it is those numbers you need to be paying attention to.  They are what you need in order to assess the risk that you are under, and take appropriate actions.

They are also what you need for peace of mind.  Another less-popularized consequence of this situation is the mental and emotional toll it is taking on each of us.  We aren’t robots — we’re going to respond to the suffering around us even if we aren’t directly affected.  But going with an emotional response could put you in the wrong frame of mind to protect yourself and your loved ones.  People in fear don’t always make logical decisions.  And you do obviously have reasons to be seriously concerned — but keeping a cool head and evaluating things from a more detached perspective, while not a method to ensure your perfect security, is the best way to get through this safely.

More data points and stories

Some new data out there today: Iceland’s aggressive testing program — about 3.4% of the entire population of the country — has revealed that about half of those testing positive are without any symptoms.

The BBC radio show More or Less took a look at the (admittedly incomplete) statistics regarding mortality from CoViD-19 related to age and discovered that it closely mirrored what your normal risk of dying would be ordinarily — except the risk that you would die in the next year became the risk that you would die in the next week.  Both of these stories are simultaneously terrifying and comforting, and I’m not sure at all how I pulled that off.

Also, an encouraging story: a 10-minute test for the virus which costs US$1 is being developed in Senegal; validation trials on this solution begin this week.

The deadly strain

Quick question: has anyone seen any updated statistics on infection and/or mortality rates by age group? Earlier global profiles (from only a week or ten days ago) suggested the mortality rate went up significantly due to both age and underlying health conditions. News media in the U.S. are highlighting cases which are not following this pattern — that it is killing younger and fully healthy individuals — however, they have not come with any supporting data. They’re all anecdotes.

Looking at what might account for this, I can think of one main difference: as opposed to other countries, there is no extensive testing regime in the U.S. Based on this, my guess is that the numbers in the U.S. — whatever they may actually be — are skewed in presenting a more deadly form of the virus.

As well, there is, as I mentioned in my last article, a tendency for media to catastrophize, partly in order to achieve a particular result in public safety. This is very much the case in the U.S., since 1) media tends to be centered in the cities, which are being hardest hit; 2) media is still a business and is going to get clicks based on the most sensational aspects of a story, even if that story is a pandemic; and 3) the United States’s response is fractured among Governors and Mayors, given the ineffectual nature of the Federal Government under Donald Trump and the general national demeanor that goes against any kind of collective, mutually beneficial action.

So I’m more inclined that we have a uniquely poor information (and health) system in this country than that we have a uniquely deadly form of the virus…but it may be confirmed otherwise by better actual data.

Trying to ease up a bit

A Nobel laureate Stanford biophysicist is sounding some calming notes in the middle of this crisis.  Worth it to note that he was correct about the number of cases in China — remember my previous article; if they are right once, they are more likely to be right again.  He’s also “showing his work”, to an extent: commenting on the provenance of the data he’s received.

This does bring up an interesting point.  Most people will not evaluate a threat correctly without something sensorally direct as evidence; for example, hiding in your basement because you see a tornado as opposed to hiding in your basement when someone on the news tells you there is a tornado approaching.  So the tendency is to catastrophize when reporting a serious threat to the public in order to get people to take it seriously.  Consider the case of the NWS warning on Hurricane Katrina in 2005…the “foreboding language used” was credited with saving lives.

However, when you are looking for accurate information around which to base risk assessment, you then have another layer of guesswork to unravel: how much is this information being exaggerated for the safety of those who can’t gauge risk properly?

I don’t exactly know the answer to that, but I can recommend that if you have a question concerning this crisis, it might be best to get both the best- and worst-case scenarios and figure that the best guess is somewhere in the middle.

Design a site like this with WordPress.com
Get started