Adding it up

The pandemic appears to be affecting African-American communities disproportionately. This is not so much about the virus itself, but about inequality in the treatment of the health of African-Americans in general. I would also suspect you would find a similar stratification in the treatment of the rich versus the poor in the U.S. This pandemic is serving as a tremendous indictment of the entire socio-economic system in this country; it remains to be seen whether anything will change as a result.

As far as the local spread, the numbers for my county are published here.  They seem to echo other numbers from other locations in terms of proportion, at the very least, which lends them credence.

I hate to say this, because it sounds callous.  It is callous, really, but it’s also true and it’s something I believe we all need to keep in mind for our own individual sanity.  We are hearing a lot about various cases of this disease which make it sound extremely scary and unbelievably lethal.  These stories are true: it is possible to contract and to die from this disease if you are younger; if you have no underlying health conditions or compromised immune function; if you are taking reasonable precautions.  Our media, because they are click-driven, is full of such stories.  We are attuned to listen to stories as human beings, and stories do matter.  But we also need to remember that these are anecdotes.  They represent one person each — a person whose death, had it been from any other disease or accident, you would have remained blissfully unaware of.  The statistics for this disease are telling a different story than the media accounts, and it is those numbers you need to be paying attention to.  They are what you need in order to assess the risk that you are under, and take appropriate actions.

They are also what you need for peace of mind.  Another less-popularized consequence of this situation is the mental and emotional toll it is taking on each of us.  We aren’t robots — we’re going to respond to the suffering around us even if we aren’t directly affected.  But going with an emotional response could put you in the wrong frame of mind to protect yourself and your loved ones.  People in fear don’t always make logical decisions.  And you do obviously have reasons to be seriously concerned — but keeping a cool head and evaluating things from a more detached perspective, while not a method to ensure your perfect security, is the best way to get through this safely.

The masked ball

There are now conflicting and changing recommendations regarding the use of masks to combat the novel coronavirus. I’m attempting to summarize the pros and cons here, but as I have said before, and I wish to emphasize strongly to begin: I am not a health professional. I’m an individual with an interest in science and public policy. Please check with professional health sources to verify any information that I present here. If you have any other information on this topic, please post it in the comments, along with the verifiable source of where you got it and when, if at all possible.

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Trying to ease up a bit

A Nobel laureate Stanford biophysicist is sounding some calming notes in the middle of this crisis.  Worth it to note that he was correct about the number of cases in China — remember my previous article; if they are right once, they are more likely to be right again.  He’s also “showing his work”, to an extent: commenting on the provenance of the data he’s received.

This does bring up an interesting point.  Most people will not evaluate a threat correctly without something sensorally direct as evidence; for example, hiding in your basement because you see a tornado as opposed to hiding in your basement when someone on the news tells you there is a tornado approaching.  So the tendency is to catastrophize when reporting a serious threat to the public in order to get people to take it seriously.  Consider the case of the NWS warning on Hurricane Katrina in 2005…the “foreboding language used” was credited with saving lives.

However, when you are looking for accurate information around which to base risk assessment, you then have another layer of guesswork to unravel: how much is this information being exaggerated for the safety of those who can’t gauge risk properly?

I don’t exactly know the answer to that, but I can recommend that if you have a question concerning this crisis, it might be best to get both the best- and worst-case scenarios and figure that the best guess is somewhere in the middle.

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