The Church of Leadership: Why Companies Worship at an Altar Built on Faith, Not Evidence
‘What can be asserted without evidence can also be dismissed without evidence.’
~ Christopher Hitchens, God Is Not Great (2007)
We spend roughly $366 billion a year globally on leadership development. We send executives on retreats. We hire coaches. We buy books — endless, endless books — each promising the secret formula that will transform a mediocre manager into a visionary. And after all of it, we take it on faith that it works.
Because the evidence? It is not really there.
Leadership, I would argue, has become the secular religion of the professional world — complete with its own prophets, sacred texts, rituals, and an unshakeable conviction amongst believers that defies the absence of proof.
The Prophets and Their Gospels
Every religion needs its figures of revelation, and the leadership industry has no shortage. There is the Gospel According to Jim Collins, where Level 5 leaders are humble yet fierce. The Book of Brené, in which vulnerability is the path to salvation. The Epistles of Simon Sinek, reminding us to always, always start with why.
Each prophet offers a framework. Each framework promises transformation. And each contradicts the last just enough that followers must choose their denomination. Are you a servant leader or a transformational one? Do you lead from the front or from behind? Is your job to set the vision or to get out of the way?
The answers depend entirely on which book you last read.
The Unfalsifiable Doctrine
Here is the hallmark of a belief system rather than a science: it cannot be proven wrong.
When a company succeeds, we credit its leadership. When it fails, we blame a lack of leadership — or the wrong kind. The logic is perfectly circular. Good outcomes prove the leader was effective. Bad outcomes prove better leadership was needed. There is no result that could ever cause a true believer to say, ‘Maybe leadership does not matter as much as we think.’
This is the structure of faith, not empiricism. A scientific claim must be falsifiable. It must be possible, at least in theory, to demonstrate it is wrong. But the leadership narrative has insulated itself from failure. It simply absorbs contradictions and carries on. As Meindl et al. (1985) demonstrated in their seminal research on the ‘romance of leadership’, we have a deep-seated tendency to attribute organisational outcomes to leaders whilst ignoring other influencing factors — a cognitive bias that functions remarkably like an article of faith.
The $366 Billion Offering Plate
Consider what we are actually paying for. McKinsey has found that only 7 per cent of CEOs believe their organisations are building effective global leaders, and just 10 per cent said their leadership development initiatives have a clear business impact. In a separate survey, only 11 per cent of more than 500 executives strongly agreed that their leadership development interventions achieved and sustained the desired results (Feser et al., 2017). Meanwhile, Lacerenza et al. (2017) found in their meta-analysis of 335 studies that whilst leadership training can produce moderate positive effects, these effects vary considerably depending on design, delivery, and implementation — and that only a small minority of organisations believe their programmes are effective.
And yet: the industry grows. Budgets increase. New programmes launch. If a pharmaceutical company spent this much on a drug with this little confidence from its own customers, regulators would shut it down. But leadership development is not a drug. It is a creed. And creeds do not need clinical trials.
The faithful respond to this critique the way the faithful always do. You are measuring the wrong things. The impact is long-term. You cannot quantify inspiration. These are the same defences offered for prayer, for crystals, for any practice whose adherents have decided in advance that it works.
The Rituals
Every religion has its liturgy, and the Church of Leadership is no exception.
There is the offsite retreat, where teams are removed from the context where they actually work in order to do trust falls and write values on whiteboards that no one will look at again. McKinsey’s own research notes that adults typically retain just 10 per cent of what they hear in classroom lectures, versus nearly two-thirds when they learn by doing — yet the retreat format endures (Gurdjian et al., 2014). There is the 360-degree feedback review, a confession booth where colleagues anonymously absolve or condemn you. There is the executive coaching session, a private audience with a spiritual director who asks you powerful questions at £400 an hour.
And then there is the keynote, the sermon. A charismatic figure takes the stage, tells a story about climbing a mountain or nearly dying, extracts a lesson about resilience or purpose, and the congregation applauds. Everyone feels moved. Nothing changes.
The Inconvenient Research
When researchers actually try to pin down what makes organisations succeed, leadership is rarely the dominant variable. Structural factors — market conditions, access to capital, regulatory environments, talent pipelines, sheer luck — tend to explain far more variance in outcomes than who sits in the corner office.
Phil Rosenzweig’s The Halo Effect dismantled the methodology behind most popular leadership research, showing that the studies we love most are riddled with attribution errors (Rosenzweig, 2007). We see a successful company, interview its CEO, and reverse-engineer a narrative of brilliant leadership. We never account for the hundreds of leaders who did the same things and failed. Survivorship bias is not a bug in leadership research. It is a feature.
Even the most iconic case studies crumble under scrutiny. Several of Jim Collins’s ‘great’ companies in Good to Great later collapsed or dramatically underperformed — Circuit City filed for bankruptcy, Fannie Mae required a government bailout, and Wells Fargo became embroiled in a major fraud scandal. As the economist Steven Levitt observed, investing in the portfolio of all eleven companies from the date of publication would actually have resulted in underperformance against the S&P 500 (Collins, 2001). The visionary leaders of Peters and Waterman’s In Search of Excellence presided over subsequent disasters — Atari, Wang, and Data General all collapsed, and fifteen of the thirty-five publicly traded companies underperformed the market after publication (Peters & Waterman, 1982). The research did not predict the future because it was not really science. It was hagiography — the writing of saints’ lives.
Why We Believe Anyway
So why does the faith persist? For the same reasons all faiths do.
It gives us a sense of control. The world is complex and largely ungovernable. The idea that one person at the top can steer an organisation through chaos is deeply comforting. It is simpler than admitting that outcomes are mostly the product of systems, incentives, and chance.
It serves the powerful. If leadership is what matters most, then leaders deserve their compensation, their authority, their outsized share of credit. The doctrine of leadership is, conveniently, most fervently preached by leaders.
It offers meaning. Work is where most of us spend the majority of our waking hours. The leadership narrative gives that time a heroic quality. You are not just managing spreadsheets. You are on a journey. You are developing. You are becoming.
It creates community. Shared belief binds people together. The language of leadership — alignment, vision, purpose, authenticity — creates an in-group. To question it is to mark yourself as cynical, disengaged, not a team player. Just as in any church, the heretic pays a social cost.
What Would Evidence Actually Look Like?
If we wanted to treat leadership like a science rather than a religion, we would need to do some uncomfortable things.
We would need randomised controlled trials — assigning leaders to organisations randomly and measuring outcomes, controlling for every other variable. We would need to agree on what ‘good leadership’ actually means before we see the results, not after. We would need to track failures as carefully as successes. We would need to admit that many leadership interventions might not work at all, and that the money might be better spent on better systems, better hiring, or simply better pay for the people doing the actual work.
We do not do these things. We do not even talk about doing them. Because deep down, questioning leadership feels like questioning meaning itself. And that is not a scientific position. That is a religious one.
The Sermon Ends
I am not arguing that management does not matter, or that some people are not better than others at guiding teams through difficulty. Of course they are. But the gap between that modest, obvious claim and the sprawling, mythologised, multi-hundred-billion-pound Leadership Industrial Complex is vast — and it is filled not with evidence, but with faith.
The next time someone tells you that leadership is the most important factor in any organisation’s success, ask them how they know. Not what book they read. Not which TED Talk moved them. Ask them for the controlled study. Ask them for the data.
Watch the silence that follows.
It will be the same silence you would hear if you asked any true believer to prove their god exists. Not because they are wrong, necessarily. But because proof was never really the point.
Further Reading
Collins, J. (2001). Good to great: Why some companies make the leap … and others don’t. HarperBusiness.
Collins, J. (2009). How the mighty fall: And why some companies never give in. Random House Business Books.
Feser, C., Mayol, F., & Srinivasan, R. (2017). What’s missing in leadership development? McKinsey Quarterly. https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/leadership/whats-missing-in-leadership-development
Gurdjian, P., Halbeisen, T., & Lane, K. (2014). Why leadership-development programs fail. McKinsey Quarterly. https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/leadership/why-leadership-development-programs-fail
Hitchens, C. (2007). God is not great: How religion poisons everything. Atlantic Books.
Lacerenza, C. N., Reyes, D. L., Marlow, S. L., Joseph, D. L., & Salas, E. (2017). Leadership training design, delivery, and implementation: A meta-analysis. Journal of Applied Psychology, 102(12), 1686–1718. https://doi.org/10.1037/apl0000241
Meindl, J. R., Ehrlich, S. B., & Dukerich, J. M. (1985). The romance of leadership. Administrative Science Quarterly, 30(1), 78–102. https://doi.org/10.2307/2392813
Peters, T. J., & Waterman, R. H. (1982). In search of excellence: Lessons from America’s best-run companies. Harper & Row.
Rosenzweig, P. (2007). The halo effect: … and the eight other business delusions that deceive managers. Free Press.





