The Supercycle (@supercycleblog) / X

The Supercycle

533 posts

The Supercycle

@supercycleblog

The future of prediction market media. Created by @FlipPidot and @realTomBayes

supercycle.blog

Joined September 2024

Pinned
The Supercycle
@supercycleblog
Apr 17
The SuperModel and Bayesian Supercycle have joined forces as The Supercycle. Everyone welcome @realTomBayes!
Eli Goldfine (in SF)
@realTomBayes
Apr 17
Today, I'm excited to announce @supercycleblog — the future of prediction market media. This effort combines top writers across the industry, including @FlipPidot, @HarryDCrane, and myself. Welcome to the ultimate signal. Read more here: itsnotgambling.substack.com/cp/194505344
1.7K
The Supercycle
@supercycleblog
Oct 22, 2024
For the first time, a majority of our aggregates's constituents now have Harris below 40%. thesupermodel.com/p/presidential…
5.3K
The Supercycle
@supercycleblog
Nov 6, 2024
.@HarryDCrane's presidential forecast was in a class of its own. Learn the secrets of his unduly maligned methodology here: thesupermodel.com/p/so-whats-it-…
3.6K
The Supercycle
@supercycleblog
Nov 7, 2024
We are so back. Thanks to everyone who amplified!
Old Bull TV
@OldBullTV
Nov 7, 2024
The X account for our prediction market intelligence site The Super Model (@thesuper_model) has been suspended. Spamming our mentions with anti-@polymarket comments wasn't enough. Now they've gone and mass-reported us for supposed "Violating our rules against platform
3.2K
The Supercycle
@supercycleblog
Nov 10, 2024
This week we're doing a podcast with @HarryDCrane to talk about his presidential forecast and what made it the steadiest, most accurate model in the field. Let us know what questions you want us to ask Harry! thesupermodel.com/p/so-whats-it-…
3.7K
The Supercycle
@supercycleblog
Oct 24, 2024
Article by @MarcHochstein at CoinDesk on Better Market's silly attempt to use Fredi in its campaign against @kalshi. Super Model research is cited. Thanks, Marc!
Activist Group Says Kalshi’s Election Market Should Be Shut Due to 'Manipulative' Whales
From coindesk.com
18K
The Supercycle
@supercycleblog
Oct 21, 2024
Fredi9999 update... - In the last 24h, across his 4 accounts, he's bought another $2.4M in various @Polymarket contracts backing Trump. - New deposits: $3.0M - Current value of holdings: $41.2M - Net gain month-to-date (realized and unrealized): $4.2M All the details in our
6.3K
The Supercycle
@supercycleblog
Nov 7, 2024
Check out how this thread was hijacked by an anti-@Polymarket bot farm this morning.
3.3K
The Supercycle
@supercycleblog
Nov 22, 2024
Among the 8 we've simulated thus far, here's how much some of your favorite election forecasters would've made (lost) trading their models daily on @Polymarket, starting with $10k on 9/19. 🥇@HarryDCrane $1,920.77 🥈@TheSuper_Model ($1,513.29) 🥉@ManifoldMarkets ($3,885) 🤷
3.4K
The Supercycle
@supercycleblog
Oct 20, 2024
.@polymarket users therealbatman & redegen each bet about $1 million against Trump at around 11 pm laste night, i̵n̵ ̵a̵ ̵c̵r̵a̵v̵e̵n̵ ̵b̵i̵d̵ ̵t̵o̵ ̵m̵a̵n̵i̵p̵u̵l̵a̵t̵e̵ ̵t̵h̵e̵ ̵m̵a̵r̵k̵e̵t̵, knocking him back ~4% before the market promptly bounced back. thesupermodel.com/p/presidential…
9.6K
The Supercycle
@supercycleblog
Nov 22, 2024
Replying to @supercycleblog
As adjusted, @HarryDCrane remains the only profitable model we've simulated to date. He laid his methodology alonside his final forecast on the morning of election day. thesupermodel.com/p/so-whats-it-…
2.5K
The Supercycle
@supercycleblog
Jan 24, 2025
Congrats to @kalshi on their launch of pro sports futures. We've added them to our "Big Game" aggregate accordingly (alongside @polymarket, @Betfair, and @cryptocom). Their whole penny pricing is a little chunky, but the liquidity is good.
777
The Supercycle
@supercycleblog
Oct 23, 2024
Folks, would you believe me if I told you that about a half hour ago, Theo4 (a Fredi alt) bought over $400k of Harris to win (and Trump to lose)? Don't worry - he's since bought back twice as much on the other side. But that was a weird one.
3.4K
The Supercycle
@supercycleblog
Nov 18, 2024
Among the 4 we've simulated thus far, here's how much some of your favorite election forecasters would've made (lost) trading their models daily on @Polymarket, starting with $10k on 9/19. 🥇@DecisionDeskHQ ($3,889) 🥈@NateSilver538 ($3,987) 🥉@FiveThirtyEight ($4,711)
1.4K