Harry Crane (@HarryDCrane) / X

Harry Crane

1,875 posts

Harry Crane

@HarryDCrane

professor Rutgers @CFTC innovation committee harrycrane.substack.com YT: youtube.com/@harrydcrane consulting: cranezeng.com

New Jersey

Joined November 2015

Pinned
Harry Crane
@HarryDCrane
Jun 27, 2024
Videos lectures for my entire First Course in Probability New material will be released every few days for the next several months. Subscribe for announcements.
youtube.com
First Course in Probability
First Course in Probability A full course on probability www.harrycrane.com X / Twitter: @HarryDCrane
505K
Harry Crane
@HarryDCrane
Oct 1, 2025
Prime example of confounding
156K
Harry Crane
@HarryDCrane
Oct 20, 2024
ChatGPT: please draw me a plot of mean-reverting noise around the 50-50 line. The line should cross over about once every two weeks to allow for max clickbait.
1.2M
Harry Crane
@HarryDCrane
Nov 5, 2024
What a weasel
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Nov 5, 2024
It's published. We ran 80,000 simulations tonight. Harris won in 40,012. natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-…
189K
Harry Crane
@HarryDCrane
Oct 7, 2024
If the bet loses, not only will this person lose 3.8m, they'll also be taxed on the 315k unrealized gain.
Polymarket
@Polymarket
Oct 7, 2024
This guy bet $3,800,000 on Trump... He's already up $315k.
107K
Harry Crane
@HarryDCrane
Jul 14, 2024
Replying to @FrankLuntz
Frank, there's no need for you to guess about what's going to happen. The betting markets have already figured out. Trump's chances went from 60% to 70% within 30 minutes of the incident.
87K
Harry Crane
@HarryDCrane
Jul 6, 2024
I'm releasing an entire university-level Probability course in the thread below. 100% FREE I'll be adding one video per day, everyday until everything essential topic in probability is covered. New content will be posted everyday for at least the next 3-4 months. Follow along
Harry Crane
@HarryDCrane
Jun 27, 2024
Videos lectures for my entire First Course in Probability New material will be released every few days for the next several months. Subscribe for announcements. youtube.com/playlist?list=…
75K
Harry Crane
@HarryDCrane
Nov 3, 2025
Final model output for NYC Mayor. I ran 80,000 simulations. Cuomo won in 40,012.
509K
Harry Crane
@HarryDCrane
Jul 7, 2024
New video series on Foundations of Sports Betting To get ready for football season, I'll release a new video every Sunday for the next 7 weeks. For immediate access to the full course, go to foundationsofsportsbetting.com Subscribe here for updates: youtube.com/playlist?list=…
3M
Harry Crane
@HarryDCrane
Jul 5, 2025
A true FAIR BET Act would eliminate taxes on gambling winnings entirely. The games are set up so the customer loses long term. When a customer plays a casino game or places a sports bet, they are buying an entertainment product. Customers who happen to get lucky and win
Dina Titus
@repdinatitus
Jul 5, 2025
On Monday I’m introducing the FAIR BET Act, the Fair Accounting for Income Realized from Betting Earnings Taxation Act, to permanently restore the 100% loss deduction from gambling winnings. I welcome all other members to join this common sense fix.
109K
Harry Crane
@HarryDCrane
Jun 28, 2024
I get a lot of DMs asking for a good resource to learn probability and statistics. I got tired of saying that there's no good resource out there. So I'm recording a full course on probability. This is a math course. No frills. Hope it helps.
Harry Crane
@HarryDCrane
Jun 27, 2024
Videos lectures for my entire First Course in Probability New material will be released every few days for the next several months. Subscribe for announcements. youtube.com/playlist?list=…
73K
Harry Crane
@HarryDCrane
Jan 7, 2024
Replying to @BillAckman
Some reasonable points, except why would you think that plagiarizing Wikipedia doesn't count a plagiarism? If Claudine Gay had plagiarized Wikipedia instead, would you have treated her differently?
28K
Harry Crane
@HarryDCrane
Oct 21, 2024
Think he's upset?
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Oct 21, 2024
This dumbass seemingly has a PhD but doesn't understand how probability works. If a forecast is near 50/50 it's gonna cross the 50-yard-line a bunch of times.
59K
Harry Crane
@HarryDCrane
Nov 7, 2024
Hi Rutgers-Eagleton Poll, you missed by 5 margins of error (15 points). Let me know if you need help on the next one. My office is right down the hall.
39K