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Old Bull TV
@OldBullTV
From American Civics Exchange, your insider's guide to political prediction markets. Check out TheSuper.Market and polyoptions.com
New York
Joined January 2020
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  • user avatar
    Old Bull TV
    @OldBullTV
    Nov 4, 2020
    Now that Florida seems to have gone to Trump, let's pause to note that @NateSilver538 had it going to Biden by 2.5% and @gelliottmorris gave Biden an 80% of carrying the state. @predictit (while crippled at the moment) has consistently favored Trump to win the state. Jussayin.
  • user avatar
    Old Bull TV
    @OldBullTV
    Oct 17, 2024
    Is Fredi9999 Frédéric Arnault (@f_arnault)? - Scion of the 5th wealthiest man in the world (among the few who can foot the bill for $120M in @polymarket trading) - French (fits with @Domahhhh's analysis of his diction and punctuation) - Into crypto - One of Fredi's alts is
    169K
  • user avatar
    Old Bull TV
    @OldBullTV
    Aug 5, 2020
    Replying to @OldBullTV
    I mean it seems like a solid piece of petitioning.
  • user avatar
    Old Bull TV
    @OldBullTV
    Sep 14, 2020
    "The GOP gets - better than national Dems do - that this is their firewall. They lose this, they lose the country, literally forever. A victory for Biden in TX is seismic in forever reordering the political landscape in America." - @BetoORourke Full ep at electionwhisperer.com
    00:00
  • user avatar
    Old Bull TV
    @OldBullTV
    Aug 4, 2022
    🚨CFTC pulls @PredictIt's NAL over ostensible non-compliance by academic sponsor Victoria University. PI maintains all markets comply with terms of the letter and pledges to update as new info becomes available.
  • user avatar
    Old Bull TV
    @OldBullTV
    Oct 15, 2024
    Prediction: by the end of this week or over the weekend, the black box forecasters and pollsters are going to echo what the markets are already now pretty clearly saying: the race is slowly but unmistkably tipping toward Trump and about to exit ~coin-flip territory at exactly the
    7.3K
  • user avatar
    Old Bull TV
    @OldBullTV
    Oct 18, 2024
    Nope.
    13K
  • user avatar
    Old Bull TV
    @OldBullTV
    Oct 23, 2024
    GOP is outright winning Washoe Co (Reno) NV in the early/mail vote. Either voting habits have drastically shifted from 2020 (possible) or NV is going to be an easy Trump win. If the latter, that's something that was not remotely expected 3 days ago. Polls are dead even, and for
    6.4K
  • user avatar
    Old Bull TV
    @OldBullTV
    Feb 8, 2023
    This hearing sounds like it's going PredictIt's way. Judges skeptical of CFTC's argument the no-action relief is so informal that its revocation doesn't rise to the level of reviewable action. One judge just called CFTC's use of no-action relief/revocation a "license to bully."
    16K
  • user avatar
    Old Bull TV
    @OldBullTV
    Aug 5, 2020
    Replying to @OldBullTV
    All crossed out. Still submitted. This is a remarkable petition.
  • user avatar
    Old Bull TV
    @OldBullTV
    Aug 24, 2023
    Who won the debate? Polling from @FiveThirtyEight/@Ipsos/@washingtonpost:
    19K
  • user avatar
    Old Bull TV
    @OldBullTV
    Aug 5, 2022
    A night's sleep has given me no better perspective on the gratuitous hobbling of @PredictIt and I have no specific knowledge of the behind-the-scenes lobbying that led to it, but I feel compelled to highlight a few perhaps obvious things... 1/
    GIF
  • user avatar
    Old Bull TV
    @OldBullTV
    Aug 5, 2020
    Have Kanye's WI filing. Will post in a minute.
  • user avatar
    Old Bull TV
    @OldBullTV
    Mar 14, 2023
    Oh my. @PredictIt isn't messing around. In their just-filed opposition to the CFTC's "withdraw and replace" strategy to re-shut them down, they're asking the court to sanction and hold the agency in contempt.
    8K