SentimenTrader (@sentimentrader) / X

SentimenTrader

4,213 posts

SentimenTrader

@sentimentrader

The Sentimentrader Advantage: Over 20 years of exclusive, data-driven insights and unrivaled market sentiment tools.

Minnesota, USA

Joined July 2007

Pinned
SentimenTrader
@sentimentrader
Jun 9
As of June 8, 2026, the S&P 500 is near highs, and the Aggregate Signal Model is positive at 0.65. That matters. The move is not running on price alone. A rollover in the model would be the warning. Until then, the trend has internal confirmation. Track it daily and import
9.3K
SentimenTrader
@sentimentrader
2h
Payroll beats above 87k have a gold aftershock. Gold was positive 79% of the time six months later after similar beats. Bonds took the release-day hit. Gold showed up later. A limited-time offer is coming soon. Stay tuned: sentimentrader.com/pricing
5K
SentimenTrader
@sentimentrader
13h
Gold was part of the liquidation. The metal is now down 24% from its high. Since 1980, similar drawdowns showed a 70% one-month win rate, but only 30% were higher a year later. Relief was not repair.
Jurrien Timmer
@TimmerFidelity
18h
The liquidations last Friday did not spare #gold and #Bitcoin, which now sit together at the bottom of the periodic table.
15K
SentimenTrader
@sentimentrader
13h
Both wholesale and consumer inflation just moved outside their normal ranges. Since 1922, the S&P 500 rose only 36% of the time during these periods. A dollar invested only during these periods since 1922 lost 90.8%. Read full analysis: users.sentimentrader.com/users/kaeppels…
9.9K
SentimenTrader
@sentimentrader
15h
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence (2026-06-11) • Smart Money: 0.61 • Dumb Money: 0.62 Dumb Money Confidence is optimistic and Smart Money Confidence is neutral.
9.2K
SentimenTrader
@sentimentrader
Jun 11
Gold miners have been taken out back. Gold is more than 24% below its three-year high. 99% of GDX miners are in bear markets. After similar stress since 1993, gold's median return was flat to negative. The same setup preceded 50% crashes and 50% rallies. Read full analysis:
9.2K
SentimenTrader
@sentimentrader
Jun 11
Similar setups have leaned higher over time. When VIX was above 20, its own volatility crossed 120, and SPX was near 52-week highs, 8 of 11 signals were positive across most forward horizons. The path still got messy.
David Keller, CMT
@DKellerCMT
Jun 10
$VIX pushing over 20 suggests further downside for $SPY. Short-term pullbacks in Oct/Nov 2025 saw a similar move, but $SPX held short-term support. What level does $SPX need to break below to invalidate this as an appropriate analog?
17K
SentimenTrader
@sentimentrader
Jun 11
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence (2026-06-10) • Smart Money: 0.57 • Dumb Money: 0.61 Dumb Money Confidence is optimistic and Smart Money Confidence is neutral.
8.5K
SentimenTrader
@sentimentrader
Jun 10
VIX vol spikes near highs cut both ways. In the tight 11-signal sample, 6 of 11 saw a 5% loss within six months. A rebound edge can still come with a rough path. A limited-time offer is coming soon. Stay tuned: sentimentrader.com/pricing
7K
SentimenTrader
@sentimentrader
Jun 10
Bonds had a rough day after the jobs report. When payrolls topped estimates by more than 87k, 10-year Treasury futures rose only 22% of the time. Median same-day return was a loss of 0.43%. Read full analysis: sentimentrader.com/pricing
8.3K
SentimenTrader
@sentimentrader
Jun 10
Record put volume is another version of the same message: fear showed up fast. After similar 1-day VIX spikes, the S&P 500 was higher 77% of the time one month later and 93% one year later.
Macro Charts
@MacroCharts
Jun 9
Something to watch…
19K
SentimenTrader
@sentimentrader
Jun 10
That was a panic day. The VIX jumped 39.7% on June 5. Since the 1990s, a 252 trading day hold after similar spikes produced 12 trades. 11 were positive. 1 was negative. Average win was 12.6%. Average loss was 1.4%. Nine to one. Read full analysis: users.sentimentrader.com/users/kaeppels…
13K
SentimenTrader
@sentimentrader
Jun 10
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence (2026-06-09) • Smart Money: 0.56 • Dumb Money: 0.59 Dumb Money Confidence is neutral and Smart Money Confidence is neutral.
9.5K