Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) / X

Jurrien Timmer

15.5K posts

Jurrien Timmer

@TimmerFidelity

Dir. of Global Macro @Fidelity. Student of history, chart maker, cyclist, cook. Helping investors break thru the clutter. Views are mine. fidelity.com/socialAM

Boston

Joined December 2014

Pinned
Jurrien Timmer
@TimmerFidelity
Jun 8
Last week’s momentum-filled gains were abruptly reversed on Friday after the jobs report showed that the US economy is running quite hot while there is still no easy offramp from the conflict in Iran. Add them up and we get persistent inflation, no hopes of rate cuts, and a Fed
Rooted in History - Week of 6/8/26
From linkedin.com
12K
Jurrien Timmer
@TimmerFidelity
Feb 17, 2022
Bitcoin has been in a choppy trading range for almost a year now, bouncing between 30k and 65k. The up-or-down debate continues to be a favorite hobby for many, but it’s mostly noise. For Bitcoin, the network is what matters. Let's dig deeper. 🧵
Jurrien Timmer
@TimmerFidelity
Mar 1, 2021
Bitcoin: In my view, bitcoin has evolved to the point that it could be treated as a form of digital gold…a possible counterweight to future monetary inflation. My current take on the cryptocurrency, here: institutional.fidelity.com/app/literature…
Jurrien Timmer
@TimmerFidelity
Apr 20, 2022
Bitcoin, boring? Gasp! But boring is good if you want institutional adoption. 🧵
Jurrien Timmer
@TimmerFidelity
May 14, 2019
Trade spat fallout: Beyond the US, the drama is really being felt. Emerging market stocks are down 9% and the Chinese #yuan is down to 6.88 against the #USD. #EM #currency
Jurrien Timmer
@TimmerFidelity
Jun 14, 2021
In my view, it looks like the bottom is in.
Jurrien Timmer
@TimmerFidelity
Apr 29, 2022
The pandemic era market in one chart.
Jurrien Timmer
@TimmerFidelity
Jan 13, 2022
A few days ago I made the case that 40k could be the new 30k for Bitcoin, based on the rising intrinsic value from my S-curve model. I just came across an indicator that further suggests this: Dormancy flow. It has reached the kind of oversold levels seen at past bottoms.🧵
Jurrien Timmer
@TimmerFidelity
Oct 12, 2022
Look who's bullish: Corporate insiders are buying their company stock again in size during this latest sell-off. As the saying goes, insiders sell for all kinds of reasons, but they only buy for one. Given the historical accuracy of their timing, it’s a glass-half-full sign.
Jurrien Timmer
@TimmerFidelity
Apr 13, 2021
It was four months ago that I first wrote about bitcoin, and a lot has happened (and a lot has been learned) since then. So here is a refresh of my take on the topic. (THREAD)
Jurrien Timmer
@TimmerFidelity
Jun 2, 2022
It’s time for a fresh take on Bitcoin’s supply/demand dynamics. Take a look at this first chart, and we’ll dive in. 🧵
Jurrien Timmer
@TimmerFidelity
Apr 17, 2025
Historically, the odds of a 10% correction are 40%, a 25% bear market 20%, and a 50% bear market 2%. That means that statistically speaking the further the market falls the more likely it is to recover. Yes, some 20% declines become 50% “super bears,” but more often than not the
440K
Jurrien Timmer
@TimmerFidelity
Jun 1, 2021
As a “lifelong” technician, I am finding that bitcoin lends itself well to technical analysis. Here is my take on the recent price action. (THREAD)
Jurrien Timmer
@TimmerFidelity
Sep 12, 2022
Despite strong earnings, the rally from June lows led to a significant valuation creep. The key for this cycle: As the two-year yield goes, so goes the P/E ratio. The S&P 500 gave back two P/E points during the latest down leg, but it’s still more than three points overvalued.