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Steve Fisher
3,625 posts
Steve Fisher
@StephenDFisher
Professor of Political Sociology, Trinity College, University of Oxford. ElectionsEtc.com
substack.com/@stevefisherox…
@stevefisher.bsky.social
- My local election seat change projections are: Con -281, Lab +304, LD +76 Separate estimates for England, Scotland and Wales in the blog post:
- BBC Projected House of Commons: Con 269 Lab 280 LD 29 Others 72 (including SNP on 50) Explainer: electionsetc.com/2019/05/01/cal…
- New piece in @prospect_uk arguing that changes in electoral geography at the local elections suggest Labour is on course for a parliamentary majority, even if their poll lead narrows as expected:
- Average of final polls so far: Con 43, Lab 34, LD 12 Uniform change projection: Con majority of 40 If 2017 style polling error, Con lead 4 points, majority 10 If 2015 style polling error, Con lead 17 points, majority 116
- My 2023 local election seat forecasts: Con -490 Lab +400 LD +20 Oth. +70 But lots of reasons why it might play out differently...
- BBC Projected National Share of the vote (PNS) for the 2019 local elections: Con 28 Lab 28 LD 19 Others 25 Only the second time all parties under 30%. Best Lib Dem share since 2010.
- Off to work on the exit poll with a brilliant team. Many thanks to all the interviewers and others @IpsosUK collecting the data. Wish us luck! To everyone registered, please vote and remember your ID.
- Conservatives are generally losing council seats in areas that voted Remain in 2016, but winning them in Leave areas
- Very good thread1/ A lot of talk about what's going on in the polls. Forget shy voters and late swing, here's the decades old problem..
- A blog on interpreting turnout and change in vote share for the #EP2019 election results, with @whatukthinks @PME_Politics and @EMMacfarlane_ electionsetc.com/2019/05/25/two…
- Wondering if MRP projections of devastating Tory losses from proportional change are plausible? @dibden_jake and I have reviewed the historical precedents:
- Replying to @StephenDFisherWithout coalition partners Tories need a majority. That would require a 10-point swing between polls now and the election—bigger than any post-war Con gov in final 17 months. Bigger even than the 7.5-point swing that Margaret Thatcher enjoyed as a result of the Falklands War.
- My take on the prime minister’s predicament if she loses the meaningful vote on her deal: another referendum becomes quite likely electionsetc.com/2018/11/21/in-…
