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Patrick English
@PME_Politics
Head of Elections and Political and Social Data @YouGov. Pollster, MRP guy, data nerd, column writer. Visiting fellow @MethodologyLSE. PhD. All views my own.
patrickenglish.substack.com
Joined March 2015
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  • user avatar
    Patrick English
    @PME_Politics
    Oct 8, 2024
    Replying to @SamMarkWill @Sanny_Rudra and @northernassist
    This all feels incredibly sketchy for what is essentially a contract enforcement on the part of Northern. It relies on you knowing a specific but crucial T&C clause, which would not be reasonably presumed by a reasonable person, which is not clearly stated at any point during
    334K
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    Patrick English
    @PME_Politics
    Feb 29, 2024
    For the avoidance of doubt: No, it isn’t.
    user avatar
    Jacob Rees-Mogg
    @Jacob_Rees_Mogg
    Feb 29, 2024
    Public opinion is turning against the high cost of net zero.
    69K
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    Patrick English
    @PME_Politics
    Oct 8, 2024
    Replying to @SamMarkWill
    Quite! Prosecution leading to a criminal record and £hundreds fine seems outrageously disproportionate for what would be a breach of contract to the value of £1.90… Whole thing reeks a bit, if you ask me. Might be worth a shot with proper legal advice.
    68K
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    Patrick English
    @PME_Politics
    May 8, 2021
    From data collected and analysed by the BBC (1247 'key wards' across the country), we can calculate an implied swing since the 2019 General Election. That figure is a 3-point swing toward Labour. If applied uniformly across the GB, that would be around: Con: 340 seats Lab: 221
  • user avatar
    Patrick English
    @PME_Politics
    Jul 4, 2024
    In a few minutes, I’m headed down into the exit poll bunker to take my small place in a wonderful, awesome crack team of British psephologists led by John Curtice. We’ll do everything in our power between now and 10pm to understand and report back to you how the public has voted
    97K
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    Patrick English
    @PME_Politics
    May 7, 2021
    Greens are taking seats from absolutely everyone, absolutely everywhere. If you're looking for a #SuperThursday narrative beyond Keir Starmer and the Red Wall today, this is it.
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    Paul Francis
    @PaulOnPolitics
    May 7, 2021
    Greens snatch two seats from the Conservatives in Tonbridge division, ousting Michael Payne and Richard Long - that's some result. A big win @HoodMajhood
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    Patrick English
    @PME_Politics
    Mar 18, 2023
    Here we go!! How does changing question wording on the issue of small boats affect survey responses? What happens if we set government position up against an alternative policy? Well, unsurprisingly, measurements and conclusions can change quite a lot. yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
    150K
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    Patrick English
    @PME_Politics
    Apr 3, 2024
    Here it is! What you've all been waiting for (since I tweeted earlier this afternoon). We've got a brand new @YouGov MRP out. And it's quite something: - Labour above 400 seats - Conservatives lower than in 1997 - Labour largest party in Scotland - 'Portillo moments' everywhere
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    YouGov
    @YouGov
    Apr 3, 2024
    New YouGov MRP – Labour set to win more than 400 seats Labour: 403 (+201 since GE2019) Conservatives: 155 (-210) Lib Dems: 49 (+38) SNP: 19 (-29) Plaid: 4 (=) Greens: 1 (=) Reform UK: 0 (=) yougov.co.uk/politics/artic…
    107K
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    Patrick English
    @PME_Politics
    Dec 29, 2022
    The UK might be getting older on average, but some areas are getting younger. The mean change in folk aged 18-30 across the country is -1.2%. But against the national ageing tide, there's a ‘Benjamin Button’ group of local authorities. And they are political stardust. 1/🧵
    210K
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    Patrick English
    @PME_Politics
    Jan 15, 2025
    🚨👀 Big news! The @YouGov_DE political team are launching our first MRP model of the 2025 German Bundestag election later this week. We'll be making detailed calls for every constituency, estimating regional list vote shares, and projecting how the parliament would shape up.
    51K
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    Patrick English
    @PME_Politics
    Jun 20, 2021
    The Blue Wall. What is it, and why should we care? Well, by my reckoning, the 53-seat strong Blue Wall is a line of Conservatives-held constituencies in the South of England, stretching from Lewes to Stroud. Plus a few 'islands' dotted across the South and East of England.
  • user avatar
    Patrick English
    @PME_Politics
    Oct 19, 2023
    Little bit of news from me: I’ve been promoted and made Director of Political Analytics at YouGov 🥳 As well as a personal change, it’s also a change for the team in the way we structure things and how we feed advanced designs, analysis, and insights into our work. Exciting!
    29K
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    Patrick English
    @PME_Politics
    Jan 3, 2021
    🚨 NEWS 🚨 Really excited to announce that at the end of the month, I’ll be joining YouGov’s political research team! It’s a brilliant group, with fantastic ambition, and I can’t wait to get started!
  • user avatar
    Patrick English
    @PME_Politics
    Feb 19, 2022
    Fulham v Huddersfield today, where the away fans have just noticed this chap having a bit of a snooze up in the main stand. Cue all of them singing “he’s fast asleep, he’s fast asleeeeep” for 2 minutes straight. Followed by “how sh*t must you be, he’s fallen asleep”