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Jane Green
@ProfJaneGreen
Director politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk | Co-Director @BESResearch | President @BritPollingCncl | Posting at bsky ...
Nuffield College, Oxford
Joined February 2010
Posts
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    It is obvious but worth saying ... the narrative is: Conservative MPs are considering the electoral hit from #partygate on whether they change leader. Not: Conservative MPs are considering whether a PM must adhere to rules he set for others during a national crisis.
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    It’s staggering how much the Conservative Party, and the values it is espousing to the outside world, have changed.
    Currently watching some old Conservative party political broadcasts (cos I’m all about fun) and came across this one from 2011. I…think it’s quite good?
    00:00
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    Let’s not forget: Johnson delivered Brexit, the PM is popular among Leave voters, the Tory govt spent staggering amounts of £ in the pandemic and overseen an amazingly successful vaccine rollout so we’re now very optimistic, and the economy is rebounding....
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    Shout out to @KateAndrs for taking the flak, rising above it and championing the needs of the most vulnerable. And well played David Dimbleby. Women and anyone else who suffers online abuse - let's not be cowed.
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    Breaking. Covid rules applied to people not having very difficult days. This is not going to go down well (again).
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    As they say, some professional news... It is a very great honour for me to take over from the peerless @whatukthinks, for whom everyone @BritPollingCncl is incredibly grateful for his sixteen years of service.
    NEW: Professor Jane Green is the new President of the British Polling Council britishpollingcouncil.org/new-president-…
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    I’m going to do a short thread on what I think could be some surprises tomorrow night….
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    More than 150 Conservative seats without a candidate
    Senior Tories expect a significant number of further MP resignations over the weekend, in the wake of Gove’s and Leadsom’s decisions not to fight the election. Quite a number who have been re-approved as candidates have been in two minds, and thought they had till the autumn to
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    I have studied electoral accountability now for years and I'm concerned we're in a kind of hole where the problems are too big and the expectations now too low, that things don't seem to matter as much as they should. Or is this hole just twitter? I am not sure.
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    Labour were predicted to gain between 105 and 590 seats...
    It's #LE2019 on Thursday so here's the deal for @GuardianAnushka's #GeekOfTheWeek. All these experts expect a tough night for the Conservatives, but the closest projection wins. Who do you reckon is right - Profs Thrasher and Rallings, Lord Hayward or @StephenDFisher? #Peston
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    And they say we’re a nation of pessimists.
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    I am v. aware that pointing these things out it can look partisan. But I’d be concerned about such messages, for politics and society, if *any* political party misled, intentionally or otherwise. People start believing these things, and then we descend.
    So just to keep track: • Stopped a non-existent tax on meat • Stopped a non-existent compulsory car-sharing policy • Stopping a non-existent plan for UK to take 100k asylum seekers • Pledged new tram routes in Manchester and Nottingham which already exist
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    Tonight @itvnews from 9.55pm. What a privilege. It’s going to be an incredible night.
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    Incl. "Research recently unveiled by Professor Jane Green, a political scientist at Oxford, suggests that the disintegration of support for the Tories is much less down to ideology than it is about a collapse of trust in their competence."
    What will be an appropriate epitaph to inscribe on the tombstone of this Tory government? theguardian.com/commentisfree/…