From: All For Caledonia on Facebook

A new Holyrood poll has predicted a huge 18-seat pro-independence majority as Scottish Labour support plummets.
With a little more than a month to go until May 7, the survey of more than 2100 people by Lord Ashcroft and published in Holyrood Magazine, also makes for good reading for John Swinney with the SNP predicted to achieve a majority.
On the constituency vote, the SNP polled at a dominant 39%, with Reform UK in second on 14%. Scottish Labour polled in third at 12%, followed by the Scottish Greens on 11%, the Scottish Conservatives on 10% and Lib Dems on 9%.
On the regional list vote, the SNP scored 31%, while the Scottish Greens came second on 17%. Reform UK polled at 15% while Scottish Labour again polled at 12%. The Scottish Tories are on 10% and Scottish Lib Dems on 9%.
The SNP are projected to win 65 seats, with the Scottish Greens in second on 18 – meaning a huge pro-independence majority.

Reform UK are on 17 in third place, with Scottish Labour in fourth on 13. The Tories and Lib Dems are projected to return 8 MSPs each.
Commenting on the results, leading pollster Professor John Curtice told the magazine: “Most voters are likely to back a party whose constitutional preference aligns with their own. That leaves former SNP supporters with few options even if they are unhappy with the SNP’s record in government.
“Disgruntled pro-Union Labour supporters in contrast have plenty of Unionist options between which to choose – and as many as one in three of those who backed the party in 2024 say they are most likely now to support one of the Conservatives, the Lib Dems, or Reform.”

He added: “Support for the party (SNP) is well down on the last Holyrood election in 2021. However, the criticism of their record among their former supporters pales into insignificance compared with the fact that two-thirds of those who voted Labour in 2024 believe that the UK Government has a poor record in government. That – and Keir Starmer’s unpopularity – hang like an albatross around Anas Sarwar’s neck.”
So, if the SNP were on 65 seats and the Green were on 18, that would mean both the government and the leading opposition party would be pro independence.
It is worth remembering that this is but one poll and, with the Reform UK Company Limited just one seat behind the Greens… and the election a month off, it would be premature to celebrate.
It is, however, cheering.



