Samuel Tombs (@samueltombs) / X

Samuel Tombs

2,841 posts

Samuel Tombs

@samueltombs

Chief US Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

London

Joined April 2009

Pinned
Samuel Tombs
@samueltombs
Sep 16, 2024
Thrilled to formally become Chief US Economist at Pantheon Macro today. @IanShepherdson has been an incredible mentor since I switched focus from the UK in Feb. I look forward to maintaining Pantheon’s reputation for incisive research on the US economy, supported by Oliver Allen.
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Samuel Tombs
@samueltombs
Sep 26, 2022
If mortgage rates rise to 6%—as implied by markets’ current expectations for Bank Rate—the average household refinancing a 2yr fixed rate mortgage in the first half of 2023 will see *monthly* repayments jump to £1,490, from £863. Many simply won’t be able to afford this (1/2)
Samuel Tombs
@samueltombs
Oct 6, 2017
Simply staggering - productivity (output per hour) in Q2 just 0.9% higher than a decade ago, the worst result for 200 years:
Samuel Tombs
@samueltombs
Sep 26, 2022
Replying to @samueltombs
So the choice the MPC faces is either to defend sterling and risk a banking crisis, or let it fall further and accept that inflation will remain above target as far as the eye can see. There are no good options, but the latter would be less damaging (2/2)
Samuel Tombs
@samueltombs
Oct 31, 2022
🎃🎃As it’s Halloween, and I have a spooky surname, it feels only right to share my five scariest charts on the outlook for the U.K. economy. 🎃🎃 Read on, if you want a fright…
Samuel Tombs
@samueltombs
Oct 12, 2022
Sterling should be trading at $1.30, given expectations that the BoE will raise Bank Rate to c.6% (further than the U.S. Fed). The current $0.20 shortfall from this level can be thought of as the cost inflicted on the economy by the government's reckless approach to fiscal policy
Samuel Tombs
@samueltombs
Nov 11, 2022
The U.K. economy is the only one in the G7 (among the six that have reported data so far) to have seen GDP fall on a quarter-on-quarter basis in Q3. Britain also is the only G7 economy where the quarterly measure of GDP has not already returned to its Q4 2019 level. What a mess.
Samuel Tombs
@samueltombs
Feb 13, 2025
Those PPI numbers were a game-changer for the January core PCE print. We're now tracking 0.28% m/m, 2.6% y/y (down from 2.8% in Dec.) All the healthcare and insurance PPI components were weak and airline fares prices fell sharply. About as good as the Fed could have hoped for.
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Samuel Tombs
@samueltombs
Oct 4, 2024
The response rate for the first estimate of September payrolls was extraordinarily low, suggesting considerable scope for a downward revision:
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Samuel Tombs
@samueltombs
Sep 23, 2022
Low income households actually are *worse off* from the mini-Budget - they barely benefit from the tax cuts, but they will be hit hard by a rise in the cost of imports caused by ↓£. The current level of sterling points to a 0.5% boost to CPI inflation in 2024 from import prices:
Samuel Tombs
@samueltombs
Sep 7, 2020
It’s getting tiresome to hear people say the hit to GDP from a no-deal Brexit is modest compared to the hit from Covid-19. This compares apples and pears. (1/2)
Samuel Tombs
@samueltombs
Feb 11, 2022
I think it's under-appreciated that UK GDP is only near its pre-Covid level due to a massive rise in government expenditure & investment. Private sector GDP (everything else) still was 3.4% below its Q4 2019 level. I'm sure claims of a buoyant economy ring hollow for many firms
Samuel Tombs
@samueltombs
Mar 3, 2021
Striking chart from the OBR showing that the new UK Infrastructure Bank won't even provide half the funding that we used to receive from the European Investment Bank:
Samuel Tombs
@samueltombs
Sep 8, 2022
The £2,500 cap implies the average households’ monthly bill will rise to £208 in October, from £164. On top, everyone gets a £400 grant, paid out over 6m (£67pm). So effectively, the average bill will *fall* to £142pm for the Oct-Mar period. Recession looking far less likely.