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Ian Shepherdson
@IanShepherdson
Editor-in-Chief, Pantheon Macroeconomics. Blocked by Piers Morgan. Trial: pantheonmacro.com Speaking: [email protected]
Montpellier/NY/Ldn/Newcastle
pantheonmacro.com
Joined July 2011
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    Ian Shepherdson
    @IanShepherdson
    Sep 16, 2024
    34 years is enough for me. I could not have found a safer pair of hands than Sam's, plus he and Olly are way better at Excel than me.
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    Samuel Tombs
    @samueltombs
    Sep 16, 2024
    Thrilled to formally become Chief US Economist at Pantheon Macro today. @IanShepherdson has been an incredible mentor since I switched focus from the UK in Feb. I look forward to maintaining Pantheon’s reputation for incisive research on the US economy, supported by Oliver Allen.
    40K
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    Ian Shepherdson
    @IanShepherdson
    Jan 21, 2020
    The Trump economy is indeed enjoying a boom the likes of which have never been seen before. By three year-olds. GDP growth has averaged 2.6% annualized since Trump took office (full quarters only, so that's Q217-Q319 inclusive). Average for the previous 50 years was 2.8%. #Davos
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    Ian Shepherdson
    @IanShepherdson
    Jul 5, 2022
    Meltdown in wholesale gas prices today (white line) mean serious relief at the pump (yellow line) over the next couple weeks.
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    Ian Shepherdson
    @IanShepherdson
    Apr 27, 2020
    Replying to @burgessev and @politico
    Here's a map from the Rockefeller Institute of Govt, showing net flows to/from federal govt to the states. NY is the biggest net donor, Illinois also a net donor; Cali is a wash. Florida? Florida takes. Not that facts trouble Rick Scott much.
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    Ian Shepherdson
    @IanShepherdson
    Nov 23, 2020
    The (only) "70% effective" headlines for the Oxford vaccine are misleading; that's the average result for two different dosing regimes. Efficacy was >90% for one of the regimes (half-dose followed by full dose), so that's presumably what will actually be used.
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    Ian Shepherdson
    @IanShepherdson
    Jul 21, 2020
    I know it's very unfashionable to find anything positive to say about the Covid numbers, but the 7-day average number of new cases in Arizona has fallen by 23% from its July 6 peak. The trend is clearly downwards. Florida has peaked too. Chart updated for today's numbers.
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    Ian Shepherdson
    @IanShepherdson
    Sep 5, 2019
    Replying to @boho_daisies and @JoJohnsonUK
    Remind me, please, in which referendum were we asked if we wanted a no-deal Brexit?
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    Ian Shepherdson
    @IanShepherdson
    Sep 23, 2022
    If it weren't so tragic, the *instant* head-on collision between libertarian fantasy economics and the markets in the UK would be hilarious. It's mind-boggling, either way.
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    Ian Shepherdson
    @IanShepherdson
    Jul 22, 2025
    Some media reporting that the Philippines will "pay a 19% tariff". No, they won't. American purchasers of goods from the Philippines will pay the 19% tariffs. The burden falls on the buyers, not the sellers. Thank you for your attention blah blah blah
    35K
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    Ian Shepherdson
    @IanShepherdson
    Jan 31, 2023
    The Fed should not hike again. Their work is done. They have suppressed inflation expectations; the Covid distortions to rents and margins are working through and will drive inflation down; and the labor market is re-normalizing without a surge in unemployment.
    95K
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    Ian Shepherdson
    @IanShepherdson
    Jan 11, 2021
    - Elon Musk tweets "use Signal". - SIGL stock jumps 11700% in three days. - SIGL is Signal Advance, a healthcare firm in Texas. - It is not Signal the encrypted comms service. - There is definitely no bubble in stocks.
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    Ian Shepherdson
    @IanShepherdson
    Aug 12, 2025
    Some observations about the new BLS head: - He thinks it is meaningful to annualize price changes over three months and compare to changes over 30 months. - He adds PhD to his handle; the best single indicator of (deserved) intellectual insecurity - He gets dressed in the dark
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    E.J. Antoni, Ph.D.
    @RealEJAntoni
    Jun 11, 2025
    Inflation during Trump's 2nd term is an annualized 1.4%, which is less than the '09-'20 average of 1.8% and less than half the 3.1% annualized rate during Biden's last 30 months - to say nothing of the 8.6% rate during Biden's first 18 months...
    49K
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    Ian Shepherdson
    @IanShepherdson
    Mar 23, 2020
    UK lockdown but not a word about how self-employed and gig workers will feed themselves now that they can't work. Do they just not give a shit or are they too dumb to appreciate that not everyone wears a suit for work and has a salary?
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    Ian Shepherdson
    @IanShepherdson
    Nov 10, 2021
    I hate to say this, but October's core CPI is just a taster; the next few months are going to be horrible. The y/y core rate is headed for 6-6.5% over the next three months, and it could even hit 7%. Why Powell didn't warn of this last week I'll never understand.