Greg Ip (@greg

Greg Ip

16.2K posts

Greg Ip

@greg_ip

Chief economics commentator for The Wall Street Journal. A fox, not a hedgehog. Read my articles here: wsj.com/news/author/gr…

Washington, D.C.

Joined January 2011

Pinned
Greg Ip
@greg_ip
May 29
A quiet milestone: Q1 GDP report showed labor share of GDP hit new low of 51.0% while domestic profit share rose to 12.1%, a record except for one quarter in 1950. Is it politically sustainable for capital's share of output to rise so inexorably? wsj.com/finance/stocks…
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Greg Ip
@greg_ip
Sep 18, 2024
"A Vance spokesperson provided WSJ w/ a police report in which a resident had claimed her pet might have been taken by Haitian neighbors. But when a reporter went to Anna Kilgore’s house Tuesday evening, she said her cat ... which went missing in late August, had actually
1.6M
Greg Ip
@greg_ip
Sep 13, 2023
An economist looks at this and says hey, grocery prices aren't adding to inflation any longer. A normie looks at this and says hey groceries still are 17% more expensive than 2 years ago. Why aren't they going down?
Justin Wolfers
@JustinWolfers
Sep 13, 2023
Replying to @JustinWolfers
1.2M
Greg Ip
@greg_ip
Apr 2, 2025
A couple of folks have crunched the numbers (Evercore ISI - their chart, below; @fcastofthemonth) and concluded that the U.S. weighted average tariff, with all Trump's new orders in effect, will be higher than under Smoot-Hawley.
1.1M
Greg Ip
@greg_ip
Jun 27, 2018
Incorrect. Over course of Obama's two terms, quarterly growth exceeded 2% (annualized) 17 times, 3% eight times, 4% three times, and 5% once. (This is apples to apples; the GDPNow figure is also a quarterly figure, annualized.)
Donald Trump Jr.
@DonaldJTrumpJr
Jun 27, 2018
Wow! 4.5% is awesome. I remember when the “Experts” laughed when @realDonaldTrump said we could get there. They said we couldn’t even hit 3%. I don’t think Obama ever broke 2%. DJT’s policies are working overtime for America.
Greg Ip
@greg_ip
Nov 6, 2024
Inflation has been an incumbent-killer everywhere. The U.S., it turns out, was not an exception.
Greg Ip
@greg_ip
Sep 2, 2024
Sunak out. Macron thumped. Kishida resigning. Trudeau walking dead. Albanese is just 2 years into his term and approval has already tanked. Inflation has been absolutely devastating to incumbents everywhere, making it all the more remarkable that the U.S. election is a toss-up.
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Greg Ip
@greg_ip
May 9, 2025
Britain got a bad deal. 10% tariff on almost everything. Next to nothing in return. That some see this as good just shows how standards have sunk. The U.S. is now a high tariff protectionist country, 10% is the new baseline, and trade deals are judged not on how much they
wsj.com
With U.K. Deal, U.S. Signals That 10% Tariff on World Is New Baseline
Both countries are hailing this as a good outcome, showing how much the landscape has shifted.
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Greg Ip
@greg_ip
Jul 22, 2025
One reason tariffs haven't affected the stock market more is that they primarily affect the "old economy". GM has $187B in sales but a market cap of just $50B, while Nvidia has $135B in sales and a market cap of $4.1 trillion. GM is much more exposed to tariffs than Nvidia.
The Wall Street Journal
@WSJ
Jul 22, 2025
Breaking: General Motors' profit shrank 35% last quarter after taking a $1.1 billion tariff hit on.wsj.com/4eXz66U
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Greg Ip
@greg_ip
Apr 17, 2025
If Powell is fired and courts uphold the firing, it would imply any successor could also be terminated if the president disagreed with his monetary policy. In that world, it matters less if the individual is "hawkish" or "dovish': POTUS effectively sets policy.
Joseph Wang
@josephwang
Apr 17, 2025
What if Powell gets canned, but his replacement is actually more hawkish?
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Greg Ip
@greg_ip
Sep 6, 2025
Last year I pointed out that Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius had pulled off the rare trick of nailing two big calls, in opposite directions: recession risk in 2008, soft landing in 2022-23. He has just become the first three-time winner of the Lawrence Klein Blue Chip
Goldman Sachs’s Chief Economist Has Nailed Big Calls. Here’s His Next One.
From wsj.com
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Greg Ip
@greg_ip
Sep 8, 2025
Strongly worded critique of Trump's pressure on Fed by @Citadel CEO Ken Griffin, and Chicago U's Anil Kashyap. "The president’s strategy of publicly criticizing the Fed, suggesting the dismissal of governors, and pressuring the central bank to adopt a more permissive stance
Opinion | Trump’s Risky Game With the Fed
From wsj.com
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Greg Ip
@greg_ip
Aug 24, 2020
1/ Lockdowns were a blunt & indiscriminate tool that slowed infections, but with no clear strategy for what came afterwards. We know enough now about how to bring down infections at a much lower cost to the economy. My latest.
Greg Ip
@greg_ip
Jul 29, 2020
"If you make $40,000 or less you had a 40% chance of losing your job in April or May." Quite the stat from Powell. Will take its place alongside "40% of American's couldn't raise $400 in an emergency."
Greg Ip
@greg_ip
Dec 20, 2024
A "Ph.D. economist ... returns to his university for his class's 50th reunion. He asks if he can see the most recent Ph.D. generals exam. After a while it is brought to him. He reads it carefully, looking perplexed, and then says, "But this is exactly the same as the exam I wrote
Greg Ip
@greg_ip
Mar 8, 2016
All the macroeconomics you'll ever need at a cocktail party is in this Stan Fischer speech federalreserve.gov/newsevents/spe…
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