Omair Sharif (@fcastofthemonth) / X

Omair Sharif

1,988 posts

Omair Sharif

@fcastofthemonth

United States

Joined June 2019

Omair Sharif
@fcastofthemonth
Aug 11, 2025
I am begging people, including trained economists, to stop saying this b/c it is incorrect! This is one of three types of imputations and it shows you that within all imputations, one type is up to 35%. It does NOT say that 35% of all prices in the CPI are being imputed.
DoubleLine Capital
@DLineCap
Aug 11, 2025
35% of the Consumer Price Index is now based on estimates rather than observed prices — the highest share on record. linkedin.com/pulse/between-…
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Omair Sharif
@fcastofthemonth
Aug 11, 2021
One more for #teamtransitory ~9% of the core CPI increase today came from two items with a combined weight of only 1.6%: pets & pet products and haircuts, both of which posted record monthly gains.
Omair Sharif
@fcastofthemonth
Jul 31, 2025
Misinformation around this chart is rampant. The BLS was forced to cut data collection due to the *federal* hiring freeze. The BBG chart and story *mistakenly* state that 35% of data is imputed. That 35% refers to 1 of 3 types of imputations, not that 35% of prices are missing..
Spencer Hakimian
@SpencerHakimian
Jul 30, 2025
The government is literally not collecting actual inflation data anymore. They’re just estimating what they think inflation is. They “suddenly” changed this in May 2025. Right before the tariffs started getting collected. How much more obvious can they make it for you guys?
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Omair Sharif
@fcastofthemonth
Dec 7, 2022
December headline CPI looks to be headed into negative territory with a 3m SAAR headline that has a 2-handle and a core rate with a 3m SAAR that has a 3-handle versus the current 5-handle.
Omair Sharif
@fcastofthemonth
Jul 18, 2023
While the summer of disinflation is still looking good, unfortunately we'll get a boost to medical care services in the October CPI report (in Nov), as the health insurance index swings from about -4% to +1.1%. Could push the core into the low 0.3% area.
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Omair Sharif
@fcastofthemonth
Jan 29, 2023
I know everyone’s on the disinflation kick. I get it. But it won’t be a straight line down. Decent chance Q1 could be bumpy. There are a lot of big picture macro thoughts about why inflation will fall and I agree with some of them. But the details suggest upside risk to Q1.
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Omair Sharif
@fcastofthemonth
Feb 16, 2024
I think you want to be careful about extrapolating PPI. It was driven by Q4 S&P performance & new health care contracts. Both of those factors will ease in the next month or two. Not sure this bolsters the "last mile" story. PPI beat consensus b/c few ppl look at these details.
Mohamed A. El-Erian
@elerianm
Feb 16, 2024
Like the CPI data, US PPI #inflation just came in hotter than expected. Month-on-month. the PPI rose by 0.3% in January (0.5% for core), above the consensus forecast of 0.1%, as the 0.6% increase in services offset the 0.2% fall in goods. On an annual basis, headline and core PPI
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Omair Sharif
@fcastofthemonth
Feb 10, 2023
The weight of used cars in the core CPI got cut by even more than I expected. The Dec -2.5% drop would now subtract 3bps *less* with the new weight vs old. If you think Jan used cars drop will be smaller than Dec, then impact on core could be +5 to +6bps.
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Omair Sharif
@fcastofthemonth
Dec 29, 2024
The 2018 tariffs were more on intermediate goods & materials & less on finished consumer goods. The weight of items in the CPI basket hit by 2018 tariffs was relatively low. Some of the rhetoric now is about all consumer goods imports, so it would be a more material impact.
Nick Timiraos
@NickTimiraos
Dec 27, 2024
The Fed is trying to size up Trump. In 2018, tariffs didn’t end up producing inflation and the Fed ended up cutting rates because of fears of a growth slowdown from souring sentiment and investment. But the 2018-19 episode followed years of very weak price pressures where
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Omair Sharif
@fcastofthemonth
Jan 12, 2024
As I said yest, the core PCE was looking very soft, and the PPI confirms that it's in line with those expectations (0.1% core). That will pull the YoY core to sub-3%, it'll lower the core 6m SAAR a tenth, and the 6m SAAR supercore will likely drop to around 2.5%. Good news.
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Omair Sharif
@fcastofthemonth
Oct 11, 2023
Used cars CPI is gonna break some forecasts tmrw. Range from -4% SA to +2.2% SA. A mere 21bps range for the core from just one item.
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Omair Sharif
@fcastofthemonth
Mar 8, 2023
The closer I look at the new seasonal factors that led to the upward revisions to Q4 core CPI, the more concerned I am that we’re putting too much weight on the revisions. Wouldn’t be surprised if the new Q4 core data turn out to be a mirage. (1/3)
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Omair Sharif
@fcastofthemonth
Jul 30, 2025
The BLS data collection problems are much worse than we knew. The agency was forced to suspend collection of 15% of the sample due to the federal hiring freeze. That implies imputation of 15%-19% of the sample (incl Provo, Lincoln, Buffalo), or 3x the peak during covid (5.1%).
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Omair Sharif
@fcastofthemonth
Jan 13, 2023
The Q4 CPI data showed moderation in price pressures, but there are a few reasons to suspect that Q1 core inflation readings will temporarily move higher. 1) Residual seasonality 2) Rents: higher for longer 3) Used car px drops moderate 4) Higher medical care services prices
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