What we are seeing now from Japan is remarkable. In coordination with Washington, Tokyo is taking major steps to prepare for a serious contingency.
In @WarOnTheRocks today, @DEricSayers and I discuss some of the changes and why they are so momentous.
Zack Cooper
1,165 posts
Tweets on Asian security. Senior Fellow @AEI. Lecturer @PrincetonSPIA. Board Chair @OpenTech. Wrangler of children. Former Pentagon and White House staffer.
Joined June 2008
- This is a critical moment for U.S.-China relations. In recent years there has been a debate about the degree to which the United States can shape China’s major strategic decisions. I think that debate may be nearing its end. 🧵 1/9
- Hey @washingtonpost: I fixed your headline. The real story here isn't the U.S. angering China. The story is China's campaign of economic coercion against Australia backfiring spectacularly. Couldn't have imagined this deal 5 years ago. Give Beijing the credit.
- President Yoon wants South Korea to be a "global pivotal state" but Seoul is under-institutionalized on the global stage. In a new article, I look at the disconnect between South Korea's new focus and the constraints on the format of its engagement. A short thread... (1/4)
- Good piece by @wstrobel @WSJ on wargaming about Taiwan scenarios. I was on Team China with @becca_wasser - we sunk 2 US aircraft carriers and destroyed 700 US/Japan aircraft. But we still only took 1/3rd of Taiwan before our amphibs were sunk and our invasion petered out.
- I fear that a serious crisis is unfolding at Second Thomas Shoal. China appears determined to prevent resupply efforts by the Philippines, as they did most dangerously in 2014. Read a short summary of that case here: amti.csis.org/counter-co-2nd… Risky days ahead. Buckle up.
- President Biden just announced that he's skipping the East Asia Summit and U.S.-ASEAN Summit in Indonesia. This is a major own goal. It raises questions about whether the United States has a two-tiered approach to Asia. A quick thread... (1/5)
- I've completed my Washington read of the National Security Strategy. Asia-related mentions: 55 - China/PRC 7 - Taiwan 7 - India 7 - Australia 6 - Quad 5 - Japan 5 - Korea 4 - IPEF 4 - AUKUS 3 - ASEAN 1 - New Zealand 1 - Philippines 1 - Thailand 1 - Indonesia 1 - Pacific Islands
- Today was a tough day. Most mornings the last decade my day started with a phone call from Rich Armitage. But not this morning. Rich was a friend, a mentor, and a business partner. He was my biggest supporter (and sometimes my toughest critic). He was a giant. What a life.
- Look at these pictures. Is this an armed attack on a Philippine public vessel within its own exclusive economic zone? Many would say yes. It is easy to foresee some in Manila calling for invocation of the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty. We’re in dangerous waters now.LOOK: AFP releases photos that show China Coast Guard personnel "brandishing bladed and pointed weapons threatening to injure AFP troops" during the June 17 resupply mission for troops at the BRP Sierra Madre in Ayungin Shoal. AFP photos
- Replying to @ZackCooperWhere will U.S.-China relations go from here? I think they will worsen, unfortunately. My guess is that we will look back at this period as the point at which the relationship changed permanently. And not for the better. Buckle up. 9/9
- I have two pieces today on Pelosi's possible visit to Taiwan. In the @nytimes, @BonnieGlaser and I argue Pelosi's trip is not advisable at this time. We worry it could precipitate a crisis and put Taiwan in a difficult position. High risk, low reward. 1/8
- I've spent much of the last week debating Pelosi's trip to Taiwan with other experts and officials. There is much disagreement on four assessments: 1) Probability of serious incident 2) Probability of war 3) Benefit of visit 4) Cost of rescheduling
















