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John Huber
@JohnHuber72
Founder, Portfolio Manager: Saber Capital Management Notes: basehitinvesting.substack.com Disclaimer: sabercapitalmgt.com/disclaimer
Raleigh, NC
Joined September 2012
Posts
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    Compounders are largely more expensive these days, but when a stock trades at a 20% FCF yield and is buying back shares, it has the same per share compounding potential as a 20% ROIC company that reinvests all earnings. Some thoughts:
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    Higher margins aren't ideal if a higher ROIC could be achieved with lower margin. What matters is return on incremental capital. Gross margin isn't most important; it's gross profit dollars earned on each dollar invested. I like this thinking and the example from $HD
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    This is a really interesting idea that Einhorn has been talking about recently. I've noticed many companies (what I'd call stealth high quality; Japan is one of numerous examples) where the stocks are so cheap and there is just "no one home" as a friend likes to say. What's
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    A concept that Buffett beautifully articulates is if you are a net buyer of stocks, you should want them to fall, not rise. I love the simplicity but also the dissonance here, because individual investors who earn more than they spend and internalize this mindset gain a huge edge
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    Since the start of the pandemic 2 years ago, $BRK.B has now significantly outperformed $ZM, $SHOP and a number of other Covid winners. Just amazing when you think about it. It's a real life tortoise vs hare result
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    Replying to @HML_Compounder and @KYRRadio
    It’s adding an extra payment each year. Bi-weekly would be 26 “half” payments a year, or 13 full mortgage payments instead of 12. You could also accomplish a similar outcome by just adding 1/12th principal to every payment each month.
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    In the Panic of 1907, our economy plunged. Steel output -60%, iron -55%, imports -26%, unemployment soared, doors closed, rent wasn't paid. Economic output cratered for 6 months. GDP down 10% in 1908 but had quarters down 25%. Yet, stocks rose 44% in 1908. jstor.org/stable/pdf/188…
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    Impressive: Dimon has never sold a share of $JPM
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    I don't think I've ever observed a large cap stock rise by 70% in a year while the earnings multiple actually contracted: $GOOG
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    Buffett invested in 5 Japanese stocks in 2020. That initial basket investment is up over 3x in 3 years, a 44% CAGR on that initial purchase. Some thoughts from my @JournalyticApp entry today Might publish these later:
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    There are probably only 50 stocks in the US that Berkshire can buy that will make a difference: - $600b portfolio; 5% position = $30b - This limits his universe to $300b market caps at 10% ownership - There are only 27 stocks in the US this size - If we go to 20% ownership, that
    Replying to @SleepwellCap
    Marketable securities (total $600B):
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    $AAPL has returned 6x since 2016: 3x was from multiple expansion, 1.6x from earnings growth, and 1.3x from buybacks (AAPL reduced shares by 25% since '16). Biggest factor was multiple, but buybacks are a big tailwind. What are your favorite share-eating companies?
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    I just reread these posts that I wrote 4 years ago, and I glanced at my old watchlist. The stocks that looked like really cheap statistical bargains had mediocre returns, and the compounders that looked expensive were actually bargains. The ROIC really is key over time.
    High ROIC always wins in the end, given a long enough time horizon 💸 The importance of ROIC, a couple of splendid articles vía @JohnHuber72 - Part 1: basehitinvesting.com/importance-of-… - Part 2: basehitinvesting.com/importance-of-… #ValueInvesting #ROIC
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    Ted Weschler's $DDS showed the value created from 2 simple factors: High FCF + a very cheap stock When your stock trades at 25% FCF yield and it all goes to buybacks, you create a reinvestment engine similar to a 25% ROIIC grower. Some of these are now deploying this playbook: