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New article about consciousness in trading. Less practical than the others I've published, and more philosophical. Though hopefully some of you will still find it useful/interesting.
Huma
321 posts
Huma
@HumaCapital
“Two roads diverged in a wood, and I - I took the one less traveled by, And that has made all the difference.” - Robert Frost
Joined October 2021
- Interesting fact: Since the fall of FTX, only 8 coins have broken their previous ATH against BTC.
- DWF Labs and Andrei Grachev: A History DWF Labs, one year ago unknown to everyone in the crypto sphere, but now they are at the center of the crypto stage. They call themselves a market making and investment firm. Where did they suddenly come from? And who are the team members,
1/ Who the heck is DWF Labs? In the last couple of months, they have been everywhere, throwing ridiculous checks at everyone from legit projects to dead ones. I dug a bit into on-chain data and other resources, and it doesn't look good. - It's becoming increasingly clear that Trump will do whatever it takes to bring down UST yields and with it the USD. Lower yields would allow for (1) easier government debt refinancing, and (2) cheaper capital for companies investing in the US (would boost US manufacturing).
- Longed DOGE and FARTCOIN. Make memecoins great again.
- Many signs point to the crypto bull market having ended last December/January. - BTC/GOLD topped in December. - BTC/SPX only went marginally higher than its January top. - Nearly all alt/BTC pairs topped in December/January. HYPE and BNB being notable outliers. ETH/BTC, after
- Impressive twap selling on XPL. Should get a good bounce once it's over.
- Music is slowing down again: - BTC retraced last Friday's move. - ETH unable to break ATH. - No narrative/catalyst to look forward to. - Only ETH buyers are treasury companies. - Economy is slowing down. - Stagflation scenario is back on the menu. Not sure I believe in the
- One of the best skills to have in crypto, and possibly one of the easiest, is answering the simple question of "Are we in easy mode or in hard mode?" A lot of people are able to feel/deduce which mode the market is in, but they keep trading anyway. Near the end of December, it
- First principles of the crypto bull thesis: 1) Perpetual fiat currency devaluation; 2) Continued income/wealth inequality; 3) Increasingly more time and money spent in the digital world.
- Long BTC: - Gold and SP500 at ATHs, BTC has catching up to do - Q4 seasonality - Yield curve no longer inverted - Held 58-59k support on 1M timeframe - Interest rate cut potent catalyst to start seeing more ETF inflows. Marginal BTC buyers are big players mostly buying as SoV;
- Historically, ETH/BTC upside tends to be captured within a short period of time (1-2 months). If the ETF gets approved, I do not expect this time to be different.
- Feels like crypto weakness is frontrunning equities weakness similar to Q1 of this year.
