1/ Who the heck is DWF Labs?
In the last couple of months, they have been everywhere, throwing ridiculous checks at everyone from legit projects to dead ones.
I dug a bit into on-chain data and other resources, and it doesn't look good.
1/ $ADA, $SOL, and $MATIC should be facing a much-anticipated selloff from Celsius and Robinhood this week.
I've done some on-chain research and estimated the amount to be sold & some potential implications. I'm also sharing wallet details so you can track coin movements.
1/9 Lately, there've been signs of a potential bottom in the 3-year-long DeFi bear market. Starting with $MKR, I'm sharing the tokens I'm buying.
I believe $MKR will end up being one of the most obvious capitulations in hindsight.
A thread 🧵
Jump has begun transferring $MATIC to B2C2, Cumberland, and Wintermute, who then deposit it into Coinbase and Binance. $12.5m worth of MATIC remains in Jump's wallet
platform.arkhamintelligence.com/explorer/addre…
A few people asked why I think $SOL is a short:
First of all, why SOL is up 75% in one month, and 55% in the past 12 days, outperforming all big caps? Given that FTX estate's 18M liquid SOL (4.3% of the float or $580m) and 43m locked (7.5% of the total supply or $1.4b) are on
4/ the worst is over and pump fun is done.
but liquidity is universal across alts, and after this massive drain it will take some time to heal & recover, and hopefully macro doesn't rug us.
Indiscriminate selling = opportunity for those who can wait
Actually, THE largest Celsius holding as a % of mcap, which is missing from all spreadsheets, is $SNX.
Celsius holds 2.8m $SNX liquid in their wallets and 1.7m $SNX is escrowed, totaling >1.5% of mcap.
.@CelsiusNetwork can start converting altcoins starting tomorrow, as the bankrupt crypto lender prepares for a BTC and ETH-based creditor distribution, a New York judge said.
@jackschickler reports
trib.al/4v1kAdn
1/ On GMX model/risks.
As you probably know, it's an oracle-based, zero-slippage DEX. Its design aims to attract LPs and one particular group of traders who sponsor the party.
How sustainable is it, and why it works?
SNX/GMX
- Synthetix is now making more volume than GMX; trending higher/GMX trending lower
- 95% of revenues go to $SNX holders vs 30% $GMX
- GLP yield ATL, supply ATH (coping)
- @CryptoHayes will have fun exiting, DWF is out
- $SNX 770m FDV, $GMX 851m
- slightly positive carry
Since mid-December, GLP has lost >75% of its cum. trading gains as the uptrend began.
Synthetix released Perps v2 which went from nearly zero volume to comparable to GMX, with SNX LPs just enjoying fees instead of gambling.
Yet SNX/GMX went virtually nowhere 🤔
2/ Of the top 13 @pumpdotfun coins, all launched in 2024. The top coins launched in the last two months on PF are $stonks & $vine @ $33m mcap
rug lifecycles are getting so short there's no one left to play
My $OP thesis. Expressed as an OP/ARB trade. $ARB is valued at 1.67x OP at the current prices.
TLDR: I believe the market hasn't yet adjusted the $OP vs $ARB pricing, just like it lagged with $SNX vs $GMX. While the current valuation may mirror the state of the Optimism/Arbitrum