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My new book has a cover! The Eurasian Century: Hot Wars, Cold Wars, and the Making of the Modern World is about the great struggles that shaped the modern era, and how they help explain the challenges we face today.
@AEI @KissingerCenter
Hal Brands
2,027 posts
Hal Brands
@HalBrands
JHU, AEI, Bloomberg Opinion. Author of new book, The Eurasian Century, amazon.com/Eurasian-Centu…
Bethesda, MD
Joined December 2018
- If Russia's battlefield situation in Ukraine is as bad as it seems, it will create serious dilemmas for China. A thread:
- Replying to @HalBrandsThis, by the way, was why America's best option for sticking it to China right now has always been to ensure that Russia loses in Ukraine--it leaves Xi in a place where we have no good options.
- Replying to @HalBrandsEither way, what is happening in Ukraine is not at all good for China--and it shows how the distinctions we sometimes try to draw between theaters can be a bit artificial. END
- Replying to @HalBrandsb) that invasion has already created strategic blowback for Beijing (more US/democratic concern about Taiwan, increased defense spending in Indo-Pacific, explicit threats of sanctions if China comes to Russia's rescue);
- Replying to @HalBrandsMy view has long been that: a) Xi Jinping is probably dismayed that Putin launched such a ham-handed, incompetent invasion of Ukraine so soon after signing the "no limits" declaration; in part because
- Replying to @HalBrandsbut c) Beijing cannot calmly sit by and see Russia defeated in Ukraine, because that will lead (at a minimum) to a severely weakened Russia that is a less useful ally and less able to distract Washington, and (at a maximum) could create political instability in Moscow.
- Replying to @HalBrandsYou can bet that, as Russia's position deteriorates, Putin will look for increased Chinese support. If Beijing doesn't find a way of providing some such support, we could see greater strains in the Sino-Russian partnership sooner than many analysts imagined.
- Replying to @HalBrandsAt an extreme, of course, political instability in Moscow could create instability within the "strategic partnership" in which Xi has invested so much.
- Replying to @HalBrandsWe will soon see whether this judgment about China's role in the Ukraine crisis is correct.
- The math of this war is unforgiving for Putin. Every time he escalates, the US—thanks to incredible commitment and bravery of Ukrainians—can counter at a fraction of the price.
- All the hubbub surrounding Pelosi's potential trip to Taiwan is making one thing very clear: We are, alas, probably overdue for a major political-military crisis in US-China relations.
- A bit of light reading arrived in the mail today…available May 3. Thanks to @KoriSchake @LawDavF @wrmead @MatthewKroenig @CharlesEdel @DrRadchenko @PriyaSatia @LizEconomy @RidT and many other contributors
