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Deflation fading in China. More signs the non-recession is ending after 3 years of weakness.
John Tidd Kimball
3,045 posts
John Tidd Kimball
@HMgmt1999
CEO/CIO at Hamco AM SGIIC. Still learning Global Deep Value since 1999. Sharing what we are seeing. Not investment advice.
Joined October 2018
- Replying to @Fondos_A_FondoMejor fondo del mundo lo dudo mucho. Pero hacemos lo mejor que podemos y a veces salen cosas extraordinarios
- For younger investors... Pay attention to your career but also saving + investing. Say you make 100k in income annually. over 50 years that's 5 Million. Now save 10% of income per year (10K) and invest at 15%/yr for 50 years which grows to 72 Million. at 10% 11MM.
- USD repo not working so well. This morning at 7.25%.Repo Market Chaos Drives Overnight Rate Up by Most in Months This is more than $18 billion in quarterly corporate tax payments considering repo is a $2.5 trillion market. Rates traders very uncertain about what this all means. @bondstrategist bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
- Patience required? Markets in the US will likely bottom 16 to 23 months after 10-2Y yield curve reverts to positive and that hasn't happened and we are still headed in the wrong direction. Why? we need Fed easing to happen and then wait for monetary policy to work (lags 18m +/-).
- Spain's housing market deterioratingYou’d think Spain could share our Columbus Day holiday. Spanish monarchs did underwrite the trans-Atlantic expedition. Alas, their markets and our stock market open Monday. If nothing else, Saturday’s Spanish National Day took their minds off their fast slowing housing market.
- Replying to @INArteCarloDossGood point. Here is what it looks like on a Real m2 basis vs real GDP. Seems like later this year M2 will be back to trend. Also seems that lately more and more m2 is required to lift GDP. Let's see how this big experiment unfolds.
- Can't stress enough the importance of these lower leveraged loan/CLO prices. CLO BB making lower low vs Dec18. Leverage is great on the way up but nasty and very difficult to reverse on the way down. This leverage on leverage on leverage will end poorly with wide side effects.
Leveraged credit prices declining sharply. CLO prices back to Dec18 levels and Leveraged loan prices heading in the same direction. High yield spreads have widened noticeably in the last 2 weeks and CCC High Yield is back at Dec18 levels. It doesn't square with stocks near highs. - El 24 de Mayo nos vemos en Value School!! valueschool.es/evento/deep-va…
- US Real Money Supply is back below trend after eliminating all the Covid excesses
- The Real stock of M2 in the US is almost back to trend
