George Goncalves (@bondstrategist) / X

George Goncalves

7,156 posts

George Goncalves

@bondstrategist

Bond market veteran: +25yr on sellside & buyside focused on rates, credit, USD funding, Fed & global macro. My tweets are opinions, not advice! RT≠endorsements!

Tri-State Area

Joined August 2009

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George Goncalves
@bondstrategist
Jun 7
Posts on May 2026 NFP Report Solid recap found here... x.com/GregDaco/statu… Broadening & revisions up now... x.com/byHeatherLong/… 3-month average also turn up... x.com/M_McDonough/st… Watch temp-workers from here x.com/Econimica/stat… More good news, SF area hiring
CH
@Econimica
Jun 5
6.8K
George Goncalves
@bondstrategist
Mar 10, 2020
Reasons to buy? Take the following with a grain of salt as I'm a bond guy, but I felt compelled to build a stock chart on how the GFC went down to highlight many failed bailout attempts (and reasons to buy along the way) yet until nearly everyone gave up, a bottom wouldn't form.
George Goncalves
@bondstrategist
Sep 23, 2020
So... what keeps the Fed up at night? Price action like today where both bonds & stocks go down...The close will be interesting, and true bonds finally started to rally a bit once stocks took a further plunge, but this is not normal folks!
George Goncalves
@bondstrategist
Mar 1, 2020
A LONG THREAD ON WHERE IS THE FED? Many investors are expecting Fed (coordinated or not) to do something soon (perhaps before futures open). There has been a lot of debate that CB easing can't resolve health issues, but they can help sentiment. Here's what may happen next. 1/11
George Goncalves
@bondstrategist
Aug 11, 2020
Oh no! 10yr rates are breaking out of the channel that has held since mid-June (and post dovish FOMC meeting too). If we see this go unhinged (i.e even higher rates) it will be a stark reminder for all equity & PM bulls out there that they were just trading lower rates after all!
George Goncalves
@bondstrategist
Mar 12, 2020
1/ A QUICK REVIEW OF THE BOND MARKETS: Last few sessions have seen major markets contend with their own set of unique issues but it seems all assets are dealing with illiquidity & correlation breakdowns (within asset classes and on a cross-market basis) what’s going on? @RaoulGMI
George Goncalves
@bondstrategist
Apr 4, 2020
RIP buybacks: GS expects buybacks to decline by 50% during 2020 themarketear.com/posts/cW293_5p…
George Goncalves
@bondstrategist
Oct 16, 2020
Fed B/S Update: For those following the coil has sprung! A very large $77bn increase in the Fed’s portfolio. It’s a chunky weekly increase, up there since the post cv19 Fed response, and it takes the B/S close to the former high of $7.13 trillion too! New ATH B/S are in sight 1/2
George Goncalves
@bondstrategist
May 18, 2020
Late Night Ed: Powell's Message to DC, UBI pls? 1.) Its a PR Campaign: The CBS 60 min Powell brought out the more caring side of Fed vs the PIIE discussion was more tough love. 2.) What's his goal? Shift the focus to fiscal side, but why? Liquidity vs Solvency dilemma... 1/5
George Goncalves
@bondstrategist
Jan 23, 2020
#REPO is down! Meanwhile stocks have stalled along with the Fed's B/S (stuck around $4.1tn). In fact the latest data shows a contraction of the B/S close to -$30bn, mostly from lower repo usage, as T-bill purchases continue at a slower pace. Will stocks end up with a sad face?
George Goncalves
@bondstrategist
Jul 9, 2020
🚩Bonds sending red flags that all isn't well (again)🚩
Raoul Pal
@RaoulGMI
Jul 9, 2020
Bonds generally always tell the truth. You just have to learn to listen...
George Goncalves
@bondstrategist
Mar 5, 2020
Bond market basically bullied them to do an e-cut, expects more ahead, if they don’t the stock market will take the baton and force them to ease further and do a big QE. Perhaps they shouldn’t have hooked all markets on easy money. COVID sadly is the pin.
Fed's Bullard: Not much more data coming to warrant rate cut at March meeting
From reuters.com
George Goncalves
@bondstrategist
Mar 15, 2020
👇NEW CHART: Recapping last week vs. events since 2018 Weeks can go by and nothing happens and then all of a sudden everything changes. Last week was definitely one of those periods. I probably missed something, see chart for a quick recap of major events vs DJIA price action.
George Goncalves
@bondstrategist
Apr 8, 2020
CASH STRAPPED WORLD! The one thing we have learned from the sudden stop impact on the economy is the lack of cash in the system. Clearly the Fed is printing up more, but if all that goes back to prop up financial assets, it won't resolve the cashflow issues that will be ongoing.