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The VIX Index just crashed more than 25% from its intraday highs today.
Similar pullbacks — when the VIX was above 27 (about one standard deviation above its long-term average) — have typically coincided with market lows in the S&P 500.
The S&P 500’s P/E ratio just hit a 4-year high at 22.6x, but here’s why the market isn’t really screaming “overvalued.”
The act of comparing today’s multiples to their 10-year averages is, in our view, conceptually flawed. It implicitly assumes the index’s earnings structure and
The VIX Index just crashed more than 25% from its intraday highs today.
Similar pullbacks — when the VIX was above 27 (about one standard deviation above its long-term average) — have typically coincided with market lows in the S&P 500.
Nothing really bad happens when investment grade spreads are below 100!
Since credit spreads usually widen before major market peaks — which isn’t happening right now — we see these tight spreads as a sign that the corporate bond market is feeling pretty confident about US
Interesting how the S&P 500, the average stock, and the Magnificent 7 are all sitting at the same retracement level.
Will the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the August rally hold as support?
Market breadth is fine for now, but with the S&P 500 recently running nearly 8% above its 200-DMA, we’ll admit that stronger participation would help support a move like that.
To put things in perspective, we looked at how far the index tends to stretch above its 200-day vs how
The last time gold dropped this much in a single day, it spent the following 3.5 years moving sideways.
After doubling in 1.5 years, it wouldn’t be surprising if this marks the beginning of a prolonged consolidation phase.
A week ago, a deGraaf Breadth Thrust triggered, as 58% of S&P 500 stocks made 20-day new highs. This means we have entered a breadth thrust regime that lasts 1 year.
And when that happens? The results speak for themselves.
Since 1975, we’ve seen 30 of these signals (excluding
With over 55% of S&P 500 stocks closing at 20-day highs, we’ve triggered a deGraaf breadth thrust – a historically significant signal that marks the start of a new bullish regime lasting 252 trading days.
@RenMacLLC@WillieDelwiche@granthawkridge
Any downside in equities is likely to be short-lived and largely contained.
Why? Because there’s roughly a $120 billion gap between current institutional S&P 500 futures positioning and where it probably should be.
In other words: Asset managers & hedge funds are behind the