"Moscow needs a lengthy pause in the fighting in order to rebuild combat-ready ground troops almost from scratch." Read Vladimir Frolov's current assessment of the war for @CEIP_Politika: carnegieendowment.org/politika/88301
Carnegie Russia Eurasia
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Carnegie Russia Eurasia
@CarnegieRussia
Latest insights from the Global Think Tank’s experts on Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia. Part of @CarnegieEndow. RT ≠ endorsement. На русском @CarnegieRu
- THREAD: Carnegie Moscow Center digital director Gosha Birger discusses how #ChernobylHBO was received in Russia and how it accidentally exposed the mechanics of Russian propaganda. 1/
- "With a bit of luck, they can damage not just pipelines, but also compressors, valves, control units, and other pieces of equipment that are tricky to replace because of sanctions." @SergeyVakulenk0 on Ukraine's drone strikes on Russian oil refineries. carnegieendowment.org/politika/91473
- 'Paradoxically, the Kremlin believes de-escalation is unacceptable & constantly announces its radical intentions... Yet its actual steps are nowhere near as radical as expected by either its supporters or adversaries.' carnegieendowment.org/politika/89226
- Despite being Moscow's only ally in Europe, the Belarusian strongman has begun signaling his unease over how the war in #Ukraine is unfolding—asking the West not to lump Belarus in wit Russia as a co-aggressor. @A_Shraibman writes: carnegieendowment.org/eurasiainsight…
- "A negotiated end to the war that can reliably ensure security for Ukraine and restore durable peace in Europe cannot be achieved with Putin." Must-read insights into Russia's president by REP Director Eugene Rumer. carnegieendowment.org/2022/12/09/put…
- "The nation follows Putin like the blind leading the blind. When a nation becomes blind, deaf, and dumb, Mariupol and Bucha become possible," writes @AndrKolesnikov in his latest for @CarnegieEndow.
- 'Putin’s much-hyped “power vertical” has disappeared. Instead of a strong hand, there are dozens of mini-Prigozhins, and while they may be more predictable than the Wagner leader, they are no less dangerous.' @Stanovaya via @CEIP_Politika. carnegieendowment.org/politika/90275
- 'While it might look like Putin has successfully dealt with the uprising’s fallout by ignoring the problem and handing out awards, in actual fact the strain on the system remains.' @amenka via @CEIP_Politika. carnegieendowment.org/politika/90120
- 🇷🇺 🇪🇺 "Europe is stepping into a new phase of Russian-Western confrontation. Fasten your seatbelts," warns @DmitriTrenin
00:00 - THREAD 1/ Like Brezhnev’s aging Politburo’s decision to invade Afghanistan, the decision by Putin & his gerontocratic inner circle to launch a war in #Ukraine has become a disaster for Russia, writes Carnegie's @AndrKolesnikov in @ForeignAffairs tinyurl.com/283hjn8z
- Replying to @CarnegieRussiaIn a @NewYorker interview, @Stanovaya emphasizes that the most important lesson of the mutiny will be “the realization by many within the Russian political class that one can challenge the status quo and escape unscathed, as demonstrated by Prigozhin.”
- “The Kremlin would like the Russian people to believe that it wasn’t Russia’s fault that Russia invaded Ukraine, tried to interfere in the US elections or used a nerve agent to try to kill a political opponent. Instead, it’s all Joe Biden’s fault,” says @andrewsweiss
00:00 - THREAD 1/6 #Putin has today offered a glimpse of what the power transition will look like when he is obliged by the constitution to step down in 2024. The Duma will confirm prime ministers & government ministers, & the State Council—headed by Putin—will get constitutional status.
