Viresh Kanabar
Current Views Please see our latest views below: Latest Changes ADDED: Bullish Gold (short-term) – We flip our gold stance from bearish to bullish after a significant correction, $12bn in western ETF outflows, and signs of decoupling versus equities. ADDED: Bullish EUR/GBP – EUR/GBP is not currently correlated to energy prices and is at risk […]
Viresh Kanabar
Current Views Please see our latest views below: Latest Changes ADDED: Bullish USD/CAD – Expected Fed-BoC rate differentials and weaker Canadian growth dynamics support upside toward 1.40. ADDED: Bearish 1y1y NZD vs. 1y1y EUR – Overly hawkish RBNZ pricing looks misaligned with soft growth, excess capacity, and limited inflation persistence. Recent Reports on Active Views […]
Viresh Kanabar
Current Views Please see our latest views below: Latest Changes ADDED: Bullish AUD/CHF – AUD/CHF will continue to rise due to strong Aussie terms-of-trade and carry, combined with rising SNB intervention risks. ADDED: Bearish Gold (short-term) – stretched positioning, rising equity-like behaviour, and a hawkish central bank backdrop leave gold vulnerable to further downside. REMOVED […]
Viresh Kanabar
Current Views Please see our latest views below: Latest Updates ADDED: Bullish AUD/JPY – AUD/JPY should rise in a higher energy price or higher risk asset environment due to its favourable carry characteristics. ADDED: Bullish BRL/JPY – Level of carry remains attractive, while Brazilian macro and politics are improving. ADDED: Bearish 2y UST vs. 2y […]
Viresh Kanabar
Current Views Please see our latest views below: Latest Updates ADDED: Bullish USD – Despite our bearish MT view, we believe there is room for a bounce given the Supreme Court may strike down tariffs and stronger data. REMOVED: Bullish US front end – Stronger US data may see short-end rates bounce back following equity […]
Viresh Kanabar
Current Views Please see our latest views below: Recent Notes and Updates FX Bullish EUR/USD – USD entering a multi-year downtrend driven by a rising current account deficit, increasing reliance on foreign asset demand, and lower policy rates. Bearish USD/CNH – Rate spreads moving in favour of lower USD/CNH, while recent fixes suggest PBOC may […]
Bilal Hafeez
This is the second of our two-part Grey Swan series for 2026. It follows on from yesterday’s release – Part I: Who Really Runs 2026? AI, Farage, Liverpool and OMEC. Part II: Macro on the Brink? Fed Whiplash, China’s Reset and Japan’s Debt Trap 6. Japan Debt Crisis This piece argues Japan, not the US […]
Macro Hive
This article is part of Macro Hive’s 2026 Grey Swan series, where we let our imaginations loose to try and predict low-probability, high-impact events that almost no one expects. A Big Policy Reversal So far, the BoJ has been able to anchor inflation expectations, but that could all change in 2026. On the external front, the US’s tariffs […]
Liang Ding
This article is part of Macro Hive’s 2026 Grey Swan series, where we let our imaginations loose to try and predict low-probability, high-impact events that almost no one expects. NPC to Set a Growth Target, Boosting Sentiment The IMF and the World Bank predicted China’s 2026 GDP growth at 4.2% in October. Economists from leading local companies […]
Antonio Del Favero
This article is part of Macro Hive’s 2026 Grey Swan series, where we let our imaginations loose to try and predict low-probability, high-impact events that almost no one expects. Fed – From Easing to Hiking Consensus Enters 2026 Dead Wrong Markets expect the Fed to cut rates to 3% as labour markets cool and inflation markets price […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
This article is part of Macro Hive’s 2026 Grey Swan series, where we let our imaginations loose to try and predict low-probability, high-impact events that almost no one expects. The FFR Goes to Zero The first signs of trouble were subtle. No one saw the coming downturn. The combination of strong initial GDP growth and weak employment […]
Bilal Hafeez
This article is part of Macro Hive’s 2026 Grey Swan series, where we let our imaginations loose to try and predict low-probability, high-impact events that almost no one expects. The Debt Crisis Investors Aren’t Positioned For To some extent, following the leverage is the main task of investors. Before the Global Financial Crisis, the leverage was in housing […]
Bilal Hafeez
This article is part of Macro Hive’s 2026 Grey Swan series, where we let our imaginations loose to try and predict low-probability, high-impact events that almost no one expects. A Historic Liverpool Revival in 2026 Everyone loves to kick a team when it is down – especially Liverpool FC. Their collapse in the 2025/26 season has been dramatic. […]
Mariam Khan
This article is part of Macro Hive’s 2026 Grey Swan series, where we let our imaginations loose to try and predict low-probability, high-impact events that almost no one expects. A China-Led OMEC Reshapes 2026 Geopolitics China’s near monopoly on the processing of critical minerals (including rare earth elements) has been a successful tool to fend off aggressive […]
Viresh Kanabar
This article is part of Macro Hive’s 2026 Grey Swan series, where we let our imaginations loose to try and predict low-probability, high-impact events that almost no one expects. Gold to Lose Its Shine in 2026? Gold’s success is not guaranteed, and we believe there is a credible path for it to trade down to $3,000/oz in […]
Benjamin Ford
This article is part of Macro Hive’s 2026 Grey Swan series, where we let our imaginations loose to try and predict low-probability, high-impact events that almost no one expects. Farage’s Tenure as PM Begins in 2026, Not 2029! The Autumn Budget is in. Taxes, taxes, taxes was the theme tune. Admittedly, not the catchiest, but eight Oasis […]
Bilal Hafeez
This article is part of Macro Hive’s 2026 Grey Swan series, where we let our imaginations loose to try and predict low-probability, high-impact events that almost no one expects. A World Heading Toward Chronic Compute Shortages The bubble talk of 2025 has been that tech companies are building data centres to nowhere, AI is incestuous amongst tech […]
Bilal Hafeez
It’s that time of year when we unveil our Grey Swans for 2026. This marks our seventh annual edition, and it has become a market fixture – spawning many imitators but none matching our creativity. We’re humble enough not to claim we can predict Black Swans, which by definition are true unknown unknowns. But we […]
Viresh Kanabar
Summary Tensions between China and Japan escalated sharply following Prime Minister Takaichi’s comments that any attack on Taiwan could constitute “a situation threatening Japan’s survival’ which breaks historic norms by signalling Japan’s reaction function and could be interpreted as a legal mandate to intervene rather than just solidarity. China retaliated by curbing tourism to Japan, […]
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