Viresh Kanabar
Current Views Please see our latest views below: Latest Changes ADDED: Bullish FX Carry (tactical) – Our driver-based system shifted strongly bullish as high-yielder tail risk pricing eased, taking us into a +1.1 Sharpe backdrop. ADDED: Bearish USD/CNH (tactical) – Onshore demand for dollars has faded, while the PBOC is allowing a managed appreciation in […]
Viresh Kanabar
Current Views Please see our latest views below: Latest Changes ADDED: Bullish 10y CGB – Domestic inflation remains weak thanks to tepid credit growth despite higher energy prices allowing yields to move lower. ADDED: Bullish CHF/JPY – Given the rally in EUR/CHF, the likelihood of intervention has fallen. Meanwhile, the BoJ remains dovish, considering 8a […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary With the Iran ceasefire already in doubt less than 24 hours after being agreed, I outline three post-war scenarios. My base case is a low-intensity conflict with Iran retaining control of the Strait of Hormuz (SOH), keeping oil around ~$125/bbl as it manages flows to fund reconstruction—triggering a US recession. The worst-case scenario involves […]
Viresh Kanabar
Current Views Please see our latest views below: Latest Changes ADDED: Bullish Gold (short-term) – We flip our gold stance from bearish to bullish after a significant correction, $12bn in western ETF outflows, and signs of decoupling versus equities. ADDED: Bullish EUR/GBP – EUR/GBP is not currently correlated to energy prices and is at risk […]
Viresh Kanabar
Current Views Please see our latest views below: Latest Changes ADDED: Bullish USD/CAD – Expected Fed-BoC rate differentials and weaker Canadian growth dynamics support upside toward 1.40. ADDED: Bearish 1y1y NZD vs. 1y1y EUR – Overly hawkish RBNZ pricing looks misaligned with soft growth, excess capacity, and limited inflation persistence. Recent Reports on Active Views […]
Viresh Kanabar
Current Views Please see our latest views below: Latest Changes ADDED: Bullish AUD/CHF – AUD/CHF will continue to rise due to strong Aussie terms-of-trade and carry, combined with rising SNB intervention risks. ADDED: Bearish Gold (short-term) – stretched positioning, rising equity-like behaviour, and a hawkish central bank backdrop leave gold vulnerable to further downside. REMOVED […]
Viresh Kanabar
Current Views Please see our latest views below: Latest Updates ADDED: Bullish USD – Despite our bearish MT view, we believe there is room for a bounce given the Supreme Court may strike down tariffs and stronger data. REMOVED: Bullish US front end – Stronger US data may see short-end rates bounce back following equity […]
Viresh Kanabar
Current Views Please see our latest views below: Recent Notes and Updates FX Bullish EUR/USD – USD entering a multi-year downtrend driven by a rising current account deficit, increasing reliance on foreign asset demand, and lower policy rates. Bearish USD/CNH – Rate spreads moving in favour of lower USD/CNH, while recent fixes suggest PBOC may […]
Macro Hive
Summary A Republican sweep (red WH and Congress) could result in stagflation and force the Fed to hike. Meanwhile, a Democratic sweep (blue WH and Congress) would likely align with the Fed’s current projections. Market Implications A Trump victory would likely lead to bear steepening in the yield curve, and a stronger USD especially vs […]
Viresh Kanabar, Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary The cost of owning and operating a car has increased sharply since the pandemic thanks to higher costs for insurance, licencing, taxes, and finance. Remote work and a greater desire for Americans to travel abroad have also driven a shift toward air travel versus via a car. Meanwhile, more fuel-efficient vehicles and EVs have […]
Viresh Kanabar
Summary Global oil demand is set to grow by 1.2mn b/d in 2024, led by growth of 1.3mn b/d in non-OECD countries and offset by a small decline in OECD nations. Chinese oil demand is forecast to grow by 0.6mn b/d, while Indian demand grows by 0.2mn b/d. Meanwhile, OECD Europe could see growth decline […]
Viresh Kanabar
Summary Global oil supply is set to increase by 0.9mn b/d in 2024. Non-OPEC members such as the US, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana will drive much of this increase. Within OPEC, we expect Nigeria and Iran to continue increasing supply this year. Finally, demand risks should prevent OPEC+ from unwinding its supply cuts. Market Implications […]
Viresh Kanabar
You might think the OPEC+ cartel is growing stronger. After all, it recently welcomed Brazil as its latest member. With current crude and liquids production of around 4.4 million b/d, the country will be the fourth-largest member of the extended group after Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq. But the addition of Brazil masks a very […]
Vasileios Gkionakis
Oil prices are soaring, with Brent crude up nearly 30% this quarter. The supply side is driving the rise, increasing the risk of significant deterioration in global activity and upside to inflation.
Jon Caplis
The PivotalPath Composite Index returned 1.1% in July as optimism around inflation, a soft landing and indication that the Fed was nearing the end of its interest rate hiking cycle propelled risk markets higher. The S&P 500 Index (S&P) and Nasdaq Index (Nasdaq) rose in July 3.2% and 4.1% respectively.
Jon Caplis
The PivotalPath Composite Index returned 1.6% in June as the US debt ceiling was resolved early in the month and there was optimism around a soft landing and the end of the Fed hiking cycle.
Viresh Kanabar
We are neutral on crude as industrial demand is slowing. However, OPEC+ production cuts are beginning to tighten the physical market.
John Tierney
Peaking shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, fertilizer prices have since dropped two-thirds and are now only 20% above pre-pandemic levels.
Viresh Kanabar
A Russian insurrection is unlikely to impact oil production because the site of most production, Siberia, is far from Moscow.
At Macro Hive, we offer cutting-edge insights into commodity investing to keep you ahead of the market. Our commodity investment analysis primarily covers energy, metals, and food. Specifically, we research oil, gold, natural gas, iron ore, copper, wheat and other foods, agricultural products and related indices such as the Baltic Dry Index.
The commodities market can be an important way to diversify your portfolio beyond traditional securities. However, commodities can be risky as supply and demand can fluctuate significantly according to uncertainties that are hard or impossible to predict (such as weather, disease, geopolitics, and natural disasters).
Though once largely limited to professional investors, commodity markets today are more accessible. There are many ways to invest in commodity markets including futures contracts and options. There are also a wide variety of commodity stocks, and you can access some of the best commodity stocks via exchange-traded funds. A commodity stock ETF offers exposure to macro commodity market trends while minimizing the risk associated with individual company fundamentals.
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