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Bilal Hafeez on Bloomberg TV
Bilal Hafeez on Bloomberg TV
Bilal Hafeez on Bloomberg TV
Summary During the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the Dot.com bubble, there was a CONTEMPORANEOUS, NOT LEADING relationship between Job Cut Announcements (and WARN Notices) and jobless claims & unemployment rate, with US equities collapsing at the same time. This time we are tracking a LEADING relationship between Job Cut Announcements (and WARN Notices) and […]
Summary The ‘DeepSeek moment’ selloff earlier this year was primarily driven by the unwind of crowded momentum stocks and de-grossing events, rather than the popular narratives at the time concerning DeepSeek’s model development or fears about GPU requirements. AI demand continues to soar, evidenced by an exponential increase in token processing (e.g., Google processing nearly […]
Summary The AI revolution’s footprint has so far been much bigger in markets than in the real economy. The Magnificent Seven’s extremely large capex spending has a high import component that limits its GDP impact. IT employment is gently falling but represents only about 2% of private employment. As AI adoption spreads to the whole […]
Monetary Policy & Inflation | US
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary In this note, I show that the data does not validate fears of systemic credit weaknesses: Large businesses are in good financial shape, in part due to record profits. By contrast SMEs and low-income households are struggling, which is reflected by rising delinquency rates in specific loan segments. Banks, however, have managed their risk […]
Sam van de Schootbrugge
Key Events For Insights Into Market Pricing and Forecasts Around Key Events, Visit Our NEW Event Monitor! G10 Event Monitor Delays to key US economic data releases are reflected in options pricing for next week. Typically, CPI days command a vol premium of 30% in currencies versus USD. For option expiring next Wednesday, however, premiums […]
Sam van de Schootbrugge
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models are up 1% WoW. Equities led the way (+2.3%), followed by FX (+0.4%) and rates (+0.1%). Only equity momentum models delivered positive returns over the past three months (equities: +7.1%, […]
Phil is the founder of Suttle Economics – a leading research consultancy. Before that, he held senior roles at Tudor, the Institute of International Finance (IIF), JP Morgan, Barclays, the New York Fed and World Bank. He was educated at Oxford University and lives in the US.
Robert is Founder, Chief Investment Officer and the Managing Partner of the $5bn EM fund, Gramercy. He founded Gramercy in 1998. Robert has 36 years of investment experience dedicated to emerging markets with a specialization in distressed opportunistic credit strategies. He is a member of Gramercy’s Management Team and is Co-Chair of the Risk Management Committee
Jay Pelosky is the founder of TPW Advisory. He has over 35 years of buy-side and sell-side financial market experience. Before going independent, Jay was at Morgan Stanley, where he was ranked #1 by Institutional Investor in Global Equity Strategy and Global Asset Allocation Strategy.
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