The real Letterboxd Does the Oscar nominees are here, but each category is voted on by a specific branch. This is a list of what would happen without branches, if all voters determined all nominees. Just for curiosity, there is no vote on this.

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--------LIST OF REAL NOMINEES HERE--------

Here are the nominees, if no branches existed:

Best Picture

I'm Thinking of Ending Things
Judas and the Black Messiah
Minari
Never Rarely Sometimes Always
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Soul
Sound of Metal

Best Director

Lee Isaac Chung - Minari
David Fincher - Mank
Darius Marder - Sound of Metal
Charlie Kaufman - I'm Thinking of Ending Things
Chloé Zhao - Nomadland

Best Actor

Riz Ahmed - Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Delroy Lindo - Da 5 Bloods
Mads Mikkelsen - Another Round
LaKeith Stanfield - Judas and the Black Messiah

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley - I'm Thinking of Ending Things
Viola Davis - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Sidney Flanigan - Never Rarely Sometimes Always
Frances McDormand - Nomadland
Carey Mulligan - Promising Young Woman

Best Supporting Actor

Sacha Baron Cohen - The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya - Judas and the Black Messiah
Alan Kim - Minari
Leslie Odom Jr. - One Night in Miami
Paul Raci - Sound of Metal

Best Supporting Actress

Maria Bakalova - Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Toni Collette - I'm Thinking of Ending Things
Dominique Fishback - Judas and the Black Messiah
Amanda Seyfried - Mank
Youn Yuh-jung - Minari

Best Original Screenplay

Judas and the Black Messiah
Minari
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Adapted Screenplay

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
First Cow
I'm Thinking of Ending Things
Nomadland
One Night in Miami

Best Animated Feature

Onward
Over the Moon
Soul
The Willoughbys
Wolfwalkers

Best Documentary Feature

Boys State
Collective
Crip Camp
Dick Johnson is Dead
Time

Best International Film

Denmark - Another Round
Guatemala - La Llorona
Mexico - I'm No Longer Here
Romania - Collective
Taiwan - A Sun

Best Cinematography

First Cow
I'm Thinking of Ending Things
Mank
Nomadland
Tenet

Best Costume Design

Birds of Prey
Emma
I'm Thinking of Ending Things
Mank
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Best Film Editing

I'm Thinking of Ending Things
Nomadland
Sound of Metal
Tenet
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Birds of Prey
Emma
Hillbilly Elegy
Mank
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Best Production Design

Birds of Prey
Emma
I'm Thinking of Ending Things
Mank
Tenet

Best Original Score

The Invisible Man
Mank
Minari
Soul
Tenet

Best Original Song

“Wuhan Flu” from “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”
“Husavik” from “Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga”
“Fight For You” from “Judas and the Black Messiah”
“Rain Song” from “Minari”
“Speak Now” from “One Night in Miami”

Best Sound

Mank
The Invisible Man
Soul
Sound of Metal
Tenet

Best Visual Effects

Birds of Prey
Mank
Soul
Tenet
Welcome to Chechnya

Films with multiple nominations:
9 nominations - I'm Thinking of Ending Things, Mank
7 nominations - Minari, Sound of Metal
6 nominations - Judas and the Black Messiah, Nomadland, Tenet
5 nominations - Soul
4 nominations - Birds of Prey, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
3 nominations - Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Emma, One Night in Miami, Promising Young Woman, The Trial of the Chicago 7
2 nominations - Another Round, Collective, First Cow, The Invisible Man, Never Rarely Sometimes Always

Observations:

- Overall, 82/103 (79.6%) of nominations were the same between branches & all voters.

- Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Original Score, and Original Song all share the same 5 nominees between all voters and branch voters.

- Costume Design is the only category with only 2 nominees the same between all voters and branch voters. All other categories are majority the same.

- At 100% and 85%, the Music and Actors branches were the two most in line with all voters.

- At 40% the Costume Designers branch was most out of line with all voters. The Cinematography, Film Editors, and Production Design were also at only 60%. Unsurprisingly smaller branches seemed more prone to divergent results.

- In Animated, International, and Documentary feature, eligible voters had a 10 view threshold whereas all voters did not. In each category, all voters nominated precisely one different option, always choosing a more popular film (The Willoughbys over Ride Your Wave in Animated, Crip Camp over Welcome to Chechnya in Documentary, Collective over Quo Vadis, Aida in International). So evidently imposing a 10 film viewing requirement gives smaller films a better chance.

- Biggest winners in the all voters nominees: Judas and the Black Messiah gains 2 acting nominations; Birds of Prey gains 2 technical nominations; Tenet loses its acting nomination but has a net gain of 2 nominations; I'm Thinking of Ending Things, One Night in Miami, Sound of Metal, and The Trial of the Chicago 7 get a 1 nomination bump.

- Biggest losers in the all voters nominees: Minari loses 3 nominations; Promising Young Woman loses 2 nominations; First Cow, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, and Never Rarely Sometimes Always lose a nomination.

- Perhaps as expected, mostly bigger movies gained under the all voters nominations and mostly smaller movies did worse.

- A total of 35 films received a nomination here, compared to 38 from the branch nominees. Clearly branch voting diversifies the nominees and allows smaller films more of a chance.

Data:
Best Picture
Branch voters - Best Director | Best Actor | Best Actress | Best Supporting Actor | Best Supporting Actress | Best Original Screenplay | Best Adapted Screenplay | Best Animated Feature | Best Documentary Feature | Best International Film | Best Cinematography | Best Costume Design | Best Film Editing | Best Makeup and Hairstyling | Best Production Design | Best Original Score | Best Original Song | Best Sound | Best Visual Effects
All votes - Best Director | Best Actor | Best Actress | Best Supporting Actor | Best Supporting Actress | Best Original Screenplay | Best Adapted Screenplay | Best Animated Feature | Best Documentary Feature | Best International Film | Best Cinematography | Best Costume Design | Best Film Editing | Best Makeup and Hairstyling | Best Production Design | Best Original Score | Best Original Song | Best Sound | Best Visual Effects