LETTERBOXD DOES THE OSCARS 2021 – BEST ACTRESS – FULL DATA – BRANCH VOTERS

This is the full data for the nominations process of Letterboxd Does the Oscars 2021, in the category of Best Actress. This data is for members of the Actors Branch and counted towards the final nominees.

Please vote for the winners if you have time:

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-----LIST OF ALL NOMINEES HERE-----

How Counting the Votes Works

All voters have ranked up to 5 films. We consider only the films ranked 1st initially.

Please vote for the winners if you have time:

---------- CLICK HERE TO VOTE ---------

-----LIST OF ALL NOMINEES HERE-----

How Counting the Votes Works

All voters have ranked up to 5 films. We consider only the films ranked 1st initially.

To be nominated, a film must reach a "magic number" of first place votes. This "magic number" = (the number of voters) / (the number of remaining nomination places + 1). This number is always rounded up, or given +1 if not a decimal. For example, if we have 100 voters, the very first "magic number" = 100 / (5 + 1) = 16.67, so "magic number" = 17. This makes sense as it allows 5 films to be nominated, but it is impossible for 6 films to be nominated.

As films are nominated, "the number of voters" in the equation becomes "the number of voters who have not voted for a nominated film". If 2 films have been nominated and take up 40 votes, then our "magic number" = 60 / (3 + 1) = 15, so "magic number" = 16.

There exists also a "surplus" rule. The "surplus" = very first magic number + (number of voters / 5), then rounded up. So, with 100 voters, the "surplus" = 17 + 20 = 37. If a film hits the "surplus", then its 2nd place votes are allocated points in ratio with excess of the magic number. So, for example, if there are 100 voters and a film reaches 50 votes, then the ratio is magic number : excess, i.e. 37 : 13. So each voter gives 0.74 points to their first choice film (which ensures it hits magic number) and 0.26 points to their second choice. This rule is used by the Academy to not make voters feel that voting for a very popular film makes their vote worthless.

In Round 0, we observe the following steps:

1. All films with 0 1st place votes are eliminated.
2. We calculate the initial "magic number".
3. We check if any films are nominated or have reached "surplus" score.

In all subsequent rounds, we observe the following steps:

1. If no film last round was nominated or reached the "surplus" score, we eliminate the film(s) with the lowest number of 1st place votes. Those votes are transferred to 2nd place films.
2. For films that hit the "surplus" score in the previous round, votes are proportioned out.
3. We calculate the new "magic number".
4. We check if any films are nominated or have reached the "surplus" score.

If "surplus" comes into play, more than 5 films can hit the "magic number". In real life, the Academy may allow more than 5 nominees. For our votes, I made the decision that in this event, films are sorted by their vote tally when they hit the "magic number", and if still a draw, by the total number of mentions they have from all voters. This put a strict limit on allowing 5 nominees maximum.

I am uncertain if points awarded from "surplus" votes should count towards the calculation of the "magic number". From what I have read, they seem not and that is the assumption on which this count has been done. But there exists logical reasons the other way. If my decision here is wrong, I apologise, and hopefully with further research I can correct next year.

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Best Actress: Branch Voters

Total number of eligible voters: 112
Surplus number: 42

Magic numbers:
Round 0 - 19
Round 1 - 17
Round 2 - 17
Round 3 - 17
Round 4 - 16
Round 5 - 16
Round 6 - 15
Round 7 - 15
Round 8 - 13
Round 9 - 12

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List by Darren Carver-Balsiger Patron

LETTERBOXD DOES THE OSCARS 2021 – BEST ACTRESS – FULL DATA – BRANCH VOTERS