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Forecasting
AI Progress and Safety
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Pre-Mortem and Sanity Check
the final gate in the forecast pipeline
Jan 14
•
Jonathan Mann
5
1
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Decay Functions
how probability declines as time passes
Jan 9
•
Jonathan Mann
5
1
Classification and Method Selection
matching questions to the right forecasting approach
Jan 8
•
Jonathan Mann
6
3
The Broken Leg Check
the ideal first step in the pipeline for both humans and bots
Jan 7
•
Jonathan Mann
6
2
Deploying a Forecasting Bot
making testing and iteration affordable
Jan 5
•
Jonathan Mann
6
1
Art to Science
forecasting bots will transform the field
Jan 2
•
Jonathan Mann
8
You Don't Own Your Reputation
it’s not a technical limitation, it’s a business model
Oct 28, 2025
•
Jonathan Mann
6
2
1
Abundance Starts with Mobility
skip the gridlock and take the faster route to abundance
May 14, 2025
•
Jonathan Mann
13
14
1
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