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53:23
NonProphets Holiday Reunion Special
"The future's not magic—it's probability!"
Dec 30, 2025
•
Robert de Neufville
4
1
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Climbing Koko Crater
A personal note
Dec 16, 2025
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Robert de Neufville
17
8
Will 2026 Be a Blue Wave Year?
Midterms are a referendum on the party in power
Dec 8, 2025
•
Robert de Neufville
7
2
2
Toby Shevlane on Building AI Forecasters
"In a few months time it’s my belief that it will no longer be clear that systems like Mantic are below the performance of the human pros"
Nov 13, 2025
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Robert de Neufville
4
1
1
49:20
American Totalitarianism
Demagogues rise when the social order breaks down
Oct 29, 2025
•
Robert de Neufville
5
2
We Must Not Go Down This Road
Violence multiplies violence
Oct 2, 2025
•
Robert de Neufville
9
Josh Rosenberg on Forecasting Research
"In the next year to eight years, the extrapolated trend would suggest that AIs will catch up to superforecasters"
Sep 24, 2025
•
Robert de Neufville
12
3
41:55
Through AI, Darkly
We taught it language, now it knows how to curse
Aug 29, 2025
•
Robert de Neufville
11
8
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