Telling the Future

Telling the Future

Home
Podcast
Notes
Forecasting
US Politics
International Politics
Economics
AI
X-Risk
About
53:23
NonProphets Holiday Reunion Special
"The future's not magic—it's probability!"
Dec 30, 2025 • Robert de Neufville
Climbing Koko Crater
A personal note
Dec 16, 2025 • Robert de Neufville
Will 2026 Be a Blue Wave Year?
Midterms are a referendum on the party in power
Dec 8, 2025 • Robert de Neufville
Toby Shevlane on Building AI Forecasters
"In a few months time it’s my belief that it will no longer be clear that systems like Mantic are below the performance of the human pros"
Nov 13, 2025 • Robert de Neufville
49:20
American Totalitarianism
Demagogues rise when the social order breaks down
Oct 29, 2025 • Robert de Neufville
We Must Not Go Down This Road
Violence multiplies violence
Oct 2, 2025 • Robert de Neufville
Josh Rosenberg on Forecasting Research
"In the next year to eight years, the extrapolated trend would suggest that AIs will catch up to superforecasters"
Sep 24, 2025 • Robert de Neufville
41:55
Through AI, Darkly
We taught it language, now it knows how to curse
Aug 29, 2025 • Robert de Neufville
Telling the Future
Telling the Future
On predicting the future
Recommendations
View all 17
The Power Law
The Power Law
Peter Wildeford
Thinking in Bets
Thinking in Bets
Annie Duke
Dot Macro
Dot Macro
Rebecca Hellerstein
Good Judgment News and Insights
Good Judgment News and Insights
Good Judgment
Read Max
Read Max
Max Read

Telling the Future

AboutArchiveRecommendationsSitemap
© 2026 Robert de Neufville · Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start your SubstackGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture