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Good Judgment’s 2025 in Review
AI, Markets, and the Future of Forecasting
Jan 15
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The Devil Is in the Verb
Superforecaster Ryan Adler on what Polymarket’s Venezuela kerfuffle reveals about “simple” forecasting questions
Jan 7
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Don’t Take the Bait
Superforecaster Ryan Adler shares a childhood memory to discuss what bottom-feeders can teach us about consuming social media.
Dec 26, 2025
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Superforecasting the Fed: Update
If there is a cut in December, the Superforecasters are on track to beat the futures markets for a third year in a row.
Dec 9, 2025
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$1 Trillion into AI, and It Still Can’t Ask the Right Questions
Superforecaster Ryan Adler on getting frontier LLM models to write solid forecasting questions.
Nov 24, 2025
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Human vs AI Forecasts: What Leaders Need to Know
For the kinds of problems leaders bring to us, we doubt the Superforecaster-AI gap will close within the next year, or even in the next several years.
Oct 17, 2025
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Four Steps to Integrate Probabilities into Decisions
Why the right yes/no boundary beats the default 50%.
Sep 29, 2025
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Invite your students: The 2025 University Forecasting Challenge
Free | Aug–Dec 2025 | Prizes for eligible students
Aug 25, 2025
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