Abstraction

P(A|B) = [P(A)*P(B|A)]/P(B), all the rest is commentary.

On predicting the future

A newsletter about social science, the future, and why people behave in the way that they do.

Bridging the gap between the world's most important industry, semiconductors, and business.

Understanding and optimizing the world. Forecasting, tech, finance, effective altruism, and more.

Forecasting, geopolitics, and some other ideas