hyperliquid / Jeff giving off major ftx / sbf vibes
an exchange + a trading arm run by same team
a "decentralized" 3 server "blockchain" founded by us citizen with hq previously in nyc
not even a regulatory arb it's so blatant
gl jeff
life is a weighted sum of your choices
theres no starting over tomorrow
just the adjustment of the weighted sum with new decisions
most choices seem irrelevant in isolation
but you would be surprised how quickly they add up
poker players tend to have really great takes bc theyre playing a highly competitive game with sickening variance and have developed a mental framework to navigate the difficulties
life it turns out is the same type of game
aster really most obvious coin since hype <$15
long billionaires ego
long revenge
long china crime cartel
long assets that are unlisted on most cexs
surely it goes to 5-10bn mcap post haste?
update / hot take: bali is full of broke hippies who use having a a "cultural experience" as an excuse to live incredibly cheaply and stretch their money
getting the impression that these ppl are just losers who couldn't hack it in their own country
my trading firm has blown up in what I previously considered the most unlikely of ways
fortunately didnt lose any money, more of a fallout between partners
this issue has been plaguing me for over a month but has recently come to it's ultimate conclusion (firm blowup)
1/X
im not saying its over but like
1. chamath launching spac and yzy coin launched
2. recent IPOs been straight down (FIG, FLY, BLSH)
3. AI cooling / hyperscalar spending becoming unsustainable
4. seasonality for aug-sept historically bad
5. inflation not great and jobs p meh
6.
faces in crypto change so fast not bc everyone retiring on their yacht
they get blown out and go do something else
skill is not one sick trade but ability to grind out a living, yr after yr
that said id take one trade that 10xs my nw over some cucked high sharpe strat any day
great example of how consensus beta on polymkts usually are ev. couple effects here
1. ppl love lotto like bets and will overprice the tails (something that has a 0% chance of happening might trade at 1-2%)
2. polymkt negative risk mkts have arb mechanism so that sum(Ys) = $1
3.
my friend who works at a macro hf thinks im stupid but like
pretty clear we are about to embark on a long cutting cycle over next 12-18mo
one where mechanically money flows into risk assets despite potentially shaky foundations of current economy
short term dont think its